Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing

The coupled global atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE is used to perform transient simulations of the last 9000 years, forced by variations in orbital parameters, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and total solar irradiance (TSI). The objective is to study the impact of decadal-to-centennial scale TSI variations on Holocene climate variability. The simulations show that negative TSI anomalies increase the probability of temporary relocations of the site with deepwater formation in the Nordic Seas, causing an expansion of sea ice that produces additional cooling. The consequence is a characteristic climatic anomaly pattern with cooling over most of the North Atlantic region that is consistent with proxy evidence for Holocene cold phases. Our results thus suggest that the ocean is able to play an important role in amplifying centennial-scale climate variability

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (∼100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (∼40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth's axis (∼20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as 10Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradianc

Heliospheric Magnetic Field 1835-2009

We use recently acquired geomagnetic archival data to extend our long-term reconstruction of the HMF strength. The 1835-2009 HMF series is based on an updated and substantiated IDV series from 1872-onwards and on Bartels' extension, by proxy, of his u-series from 1835-1871. The new IDV series, termed IDV09, has excellent agreement (R^2 = 0.98; RMS = 0.3 nT) with the earlier IDV05 series, and also with the negative component of Love's extended (to 1905) Dst series (R^2 = 0.91). Of greatest importance to the community, in an area of research that has been contentious, comparison of the extended HMF series with other recent reconstructions of solar wind B for the last ~100 years yields a strong consensus between series based on geomagnetic data. Differences exist from ~1900-1910 but they are far smaller than the previous disagreement for this key interval of low solar wind B values which closely resembles current solar activity. Equally encouraging, a discrepancy with an HMF reconstruction based on 10Be data for the first half of the 20th century has largely been removed by a revised 10Be-based reconstruction published after we submitted this paper, although a remaining discrepancy for the years ~1885-1905 will need to be resolved

A varved lake sediment record of ¹⁰Be solar activity proxy for the Lateglacial-Holocene transition

Solar modulated variations in cosmogenic radionuclide production provide both information on past changes in the activity of the Sun and a global synchronization tool. However, to date the use of cosmogenic radionuclides for these applications is almost exclusively based on 10Be records from ice cores and 14C time-series from tree rings, all including archive-specific limitations. We present the first 10Be record from annually laminated (varved) lake sediments for the Lateglacial-Holocene transition from Meerfelder Maar. We quantify environmental influences on the catchment and, consequently, 10Be deposition using a new approach based on regression analyses between our 10Be record and environmental proxy time-series from the same archive. Our analyses suggest that environmental influences contribute to up to 37% of the variability in our 10Be record, but cannot be the main explanation for major 10Be excursions. Corrected for these environmental influences, our 10Be record is interpreted to dominantly reflect changes in solar modulated cosmogenic radionuclide production. The preservation of a solar production signal in 10Be from varved lake sediments highlights the largely unexplored potential of these archives for solar activity reconstruction, as global synchronization tool and, thus, for more robust paleoclimate studies

A new model of cosmogenic production of radiocarbon 14C in the atmosphere

We present the results of full new calculation of radiocarbon 14C production in the Earth atmosphere, using a numerical Monte-Carlo model. We provide, for the first time, a tabulated 14C yield function for the energy of primary cosmic ray particles ranging from 0.1 to 1000 GeV/nucleon. We have calculated the global production rate of 14C, which is 1.64 and 1.88 atoms/cm2/s for the modern time and for the pre-industrial epoch, respectively. This is close to the values obtained from the carbon cycle reservoir inventory. We argue that earlier models overestimated the global 14C production rate because of outdated spectra of cosmic ray heavier nuclei. The mean contribution of solar energetic particles to the global 14C is calculated as about 0.25% for the modern epoch. Our model provides a new tool to calculate the 14C production in the Earth's atmosphere, which can be applied, e.g., to reconstructions of solar activity in the past.Comment: Published in EPSL, 337, 114, 201

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene

Aims. We present a physically consistent reconstruction of the total solar irradiance for the Holocene. Methods. We extend the SATIRE models to estimate the evolution of the total (and partly spectral) solar irradiance over the Holocene. The basic assumption is that the variations of the solar irradiance are due to the evolution of the dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface. The evolution of the decadally averaged magnetic flux is computed from decadal values of cosmogenic isotope concentrations recorded in natural archives employing a series of physics-based models connecting the processes from the modulation of the cosmic ray flux in the heliosphere to their record in natural archives. We then compute the total solar irradiance (TSI) as a linear combination of the jth and jth + 1 decadal values of the open magnetic flux. Results. Reconstructions of the TSI over the Holocene, each valid for a di_erent paleomagnetic time series, are presented. Our analysis suggests that major sources of uncertainty in the TSI in this model are the heritage of the uncertainty of the TSI since 1610 reconstructed from sunspot data and the uncertainty of the evolution of the Earth's magnetic dipole moment. The analysis of the distribution functions of the reconstructed irradiance for the last 3000 years indicates that the estimates based on the virtual axial dipole moment are significantly lower at earlier times than the reconstructions based on the virtual dipole moment. Conclusions. We present the first physics-based reconstruction of the total solar irradiance over the Holocene, which will be of interest for studies of climate change over the last 11500 years. The reconstruction indicates that the decadally averaged total solar irradiance ranges over approximately 1.5 W/m2 from grand maxima to grand minima

A new approach to long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing

The variable Sun is the most likely candidate for natural forcing of past climate change on time scales of 50 to 1000 years. Evidence for this understanding is that the terrestrial climate correlates positively with solar activity. During the past 10,000 years, the Sun has experienced substantial variations in activity and there have been numerous attempts to reconstruct solar irradiance. While there is general agreement on how solar forcing varied during the last several hundred years --- all reconstructions are proportional to the solar activity --- there is scientific controversy on the magnitude of solar forcing. We present a reconstruction of the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance covering 130 nm--10 $\mu$m from 1610 to the present with annual resolution and for the Holocene with 22-year resolution. We assume that the minimum state of the quiet Sun in time corresponds to the observed quietest area on the present Sun. Then we use available long-term proxies of the solar activity, which are $^{10}$Be isotope concentrations in ice cores and 22-year smoothed neutron monitor data, to interpolate between the present quiet Sun and the minimum state of the quiet Sun. This determines the long-term trend in the solar variability which is then superposed with the 11-year activity cycle calculated from the sunspot number. The time-dependent solar spectral irradiance from about 7000 BC to the present is then derived using a state-of-the-art radiation code. We derive a total and spectral solar irradiance that was substantially lower during the Maunder minimum than observed today. The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations published in the recent literature. The magnitude of the solar UV variability, which indirectly affects climate is also found to exceed previous estimates. We discuss in details the assumptions which leaded us to this conclusion.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysic

Time-variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with cloud transitions during the Holocene, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.Comment: Submitted to Space Sciences Review