Do CDS spreads reflect default risks? Evidence from UK bank bailouts

CDS spreads are generally considered to reflect the credit risks of their reference entities. However, CDS spreads of the major UK banks remained relatively stable in response to the recent credit crisis. We suggest that this can be explained by changes in loss given default (LGD). To obtain the result we first derive the probabilities of default from stock option prices and then determine the LGD consistent with actual CDS spreads. Our results reveal a significant decrease in the LGD of bailed out banks over the observed period in contrast to banks which were not bailed out and non-financial companies

PROFITING FROM ARBITRAGE AND ODDS BIASES OF THE EUROPEAN FOOTBALL GAMBLING MARKET

A gambling market is usually described as being inefficient if there are one or more betting strategies that generate profit, at a consistent rate, as a consequence of exploiting market flaws. This paper examines the online European football gambling market based on 14 European football leagues over a period of seven years, from season 2005/06 to 2011/12 inclusive, and takes into consideration the odds provided by numerous bookmaking firms. Contrary to common misconceptions, we demonstrate that the accuracy of bookmakers' odds has not improved over this period. More importantly, our results question market efficiency by demonstrating high profitability on the basis of consistent odds biases and numerous arbitrage opportunities

Risk assessment and risk management of violent reoffending among prisoners

“The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.05.025”

Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences

Objectives: Inspired by real-world examples from the forensic medical sciences domain, we seek to determine whether a decision about an interventional action could be subject to amendments on the basis of some incomplete information within the model, and whether it would be worthwhile for the decision maker to seek further information prior to suggesting a decision

Model of host-pathogen Interaction dynamics links In vivo optical imaging and immune responses

Tracking disease progression in vivo is essential for the development of treatments against bacterial infection. Optical imaging has become a central tool for in vivo tracking of bacterial population development and therapeutic response. For a precise understanding of in vivo imaging results in terms of disease mechanisms derived from detailed postmortem observations, however, a link between the two is needed. Here, we develop a model that provides that link for the investigation of Citrobacter rodentium infection, a mouse model for enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC). We connect in vivo disease progression of C57BL/6 mice infected with bioluminescent bacteria, imaged using optical tomography and X-ray computed tomography, to postmortem measurements of colonic immune cell infiltration. We use the model to explore changes to both the host immune response and the bacteria and to evaluate the response to antibiotic treatment. The developed model serves as a novel tool for the identification and development of new therapeutic interventions

Suppression of electron relaxation and dephasing rates in quantum dots caused by external magnetic fields

An external magnetic field has been applied in laterally coupled dots (QDs) and we have studied the QD properties related to charge decoherence. The significance of the applied magnetic field to the suppression of electron-phonon relaxation and dephasing rates has been explored. The coupled QDs have been studied by varing the magnetic field and the interdot distance as other system parameters. Our numerical results show that the electron scattering rates are strongly dependent on the applied external magnetic field and the details of the double QD configuration.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Dynamical screening effects in hot-electron scattering from electron-hole plasma and LO-phonon modes in quantum wires

Cataloged from PDF version of article.We present a fully dynamical and finite temperature study of the hot-electron momentum relaxation rate and the power loss in a coupled system of electron-hole plasma and bulk LO-phonons in a quantum wire structure. Interactions of the scattered electron with neutral plasma components and phonons are treated on an equal footing within the random-phase approximation. Coupled mode effects substantially change the transport properties of the system at low temperatures. Particularly, the ''plasmon-like'' and ''LO-phonon-like'' excitations yield comparable rates which, as a consequence of the singular nature of the 1D density of states, can be large at the threshold. This is in contrast to room temperature results where only the LO-phonon mode contributes significantly to the rate. The density and temperature dependence of the power loss reveals that dynamical screening effects are important, and energy-momentum conservation cannot be satisfied above a certain density for a given initial energy. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Lt

Assessing the quality of life of children with sickle cell anaemia using self-, parent-proxy and healthcare professional-proxy reports

Objectives The quality of life (QoL) of children with sickle cell anaemia (SCA) in the United Kingdom has not been examined, and a discrepancy measure based on Gap theory has rarely been used. This study investigated whether (1) child self-reports of QoL using a discrepancy measure (the Generic Children's QoL Measure; GCQ) are lower than those from healthy children, (2) proxy reports from parents and health care professionals are lower than child self-reports, and (3) demographic and disease severity indicators are related to QoL. Design and methods An interdependent groups, cross-sectional design was implemented. Seventy-four children with SCA, their parent, and members of their health care team completed the GCQ. Demographic and disease severity indicators were recorded. GCQ data from healthy children were obtained from the UK Data Archive. Results Contrary to past research, when examining generic discrepancy QoL, children with SCA did not report a lower QoL than healthy children, and parent- and health care professional-proxy reports were not lower than child self-reports. Few of the demographic and disease severity indicators were related to QoL. Conclusions Proxy reports may be used to gain a more complete picture of QoL, but should not be a substitute for self-reports. The explanation for the relatively high levels of QoL reported is not clear, but children with SCA may have realistic expectations about their ideal-self, place greater emphasis on aspects other than health in shaping their QoL, and define achievements within the limits of their illness. Future research should focus on psychological factors in explaining QoL