Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa

Background: Recent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear. Methods: Two mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya. Results: In both models, male circumcision programs resulted in large and sustained declines in HIV prevalence over time among both men and women. Men benefited somewhat more than women, but prevalence among women was also reduced substantially. With 80% male circumcision uptake, the reductions in prevalence ranged from 45% to 67% in the two "countries", and with 50% uptake, from 25% to 41%. It would take over a decade for the intervention to reach its full effect. Conclusion: Large-scale uptake of male circumcision services in African countries with high HIV prevalence, and where male circumcision is not now routinely practised, could lead to substantial reductions in HIV transmission and prevalence over time among both men and women

The validity of the EQ-5D-3L items: An investigation with type 2 diabetes patients from six European countries

Background: Most previous studies concerning the validity of the EQ-5D-3L items refer to applications of only a single language version of the EQ-5D-3L in only one country. Therefore, there is little information concerning the extent to which the results can be generalised across different language versions and

Predicting new venture survival and growth: does the fog lift?

This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (Adm Sci Q 36(3):397–420, 1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry—in terms of the selection environment, the ‘fog’ seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time—implying that the ‘fog’ does lift

Echinococcus multilocularis and Echinococcus shiquicus in a small mammal community on the eastern Tibetan Plateau : host species composition, molecular prevalence, and epidemiological implications

Background The eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau is now recognized as an endemic region with the highest reported human infection rates in the world of human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) caused by Echinococcus multilocularis. Existing epidemiological studies on AE have mainly focused on the synanthropic environment, while basic parasitological and ecological aspects in wildlife host species remain largely unknown, especially for small mammal hosts. Therefore, we examined small mammal host species composition, occurrence, and the prevalence of both E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus in Shiqu County (Sichuan Province, China), eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results In total, 346 small mammals from five rodent and one pika species were trapped from four randomly set 0.25 ha square plots. Two vole species, Lasiopodomys fuscus (n = 144) and Microtus limnophilus (n = 44), and the plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) (n = 135), were the three most-dominant species trapped. Although protoscoleces of E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus were only observed in L. fuscus and O. curzoniae, respectively, cox1 and nad1 gene DNA of E. shiquicus was detected in all the small mammal species except for Neodon irene, whereas E. multilocularis was detected in the three most-dominant species. The overall molecular prevalence of Echinococcus species was 5.8 (95% CI: 3.3–8.2%) ~ 10.7% (95% CI: 7.4–14.0%) (the conservative prevalence to the maximum prevalence with 95% CI in parentheses), whereas for E. multilocularis it was 4.3 (95% CI: 2.2–6.5%) ~ 6.7% (95% CI: 4.0–9.3%), and 1.5 (95% CI: 0.2–2.7%) ~ 4.1% (95% CI: 2.0–6.1%) for E. shiquicus. The prevalence of both E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus, was significantly higher in rodents (mainly voles) than in pikas. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Echinococcus haplotypes of cox1 from small mammal hosts were actively involved in the sylvatic and anthropogenic transmission cycles of E. multilocularis in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Conclusions In contrast to previous studies, the current results indicated that rodent species, rather than pikas, are probably more important natural intermediate hosts of E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Thus, understanding interspecific dynamics between rodents and pikas is essential to studies of the echinococcosis transmission mechanism and human echinococcosis prevention in local communities. Keywords: Echinococcus multilocularis, E. shiquicus, Small mammal Prevalence, Tibetan Platea

Distribution of schistosomiasis and soil transmitted Helminthiasis in Zimbabwe:Towards a national plan of action for control and elimination

Schistosomiasis and STH are among the list of neglected tropical diseases considered for control by the WHO. Although both diseases are endemic in Zimbabwe, no nationwide control interventions have been implemented. For this reason in 2009 the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care included the two diseases in the 2009-2013 National Health Strategy highlighting the importance of understanding the distribution and burden of the diseases as a prerequisite for elimination interventions. It is against this background that a national survey was conducted.A countrywide cross-sectional survey was carried out in 280 primary schools in 68 districts between September 2010 and August 2011. Schistosoma haematobium was diagnosed using the urine filtration technique. Schistosoma mansoni and STH (hookworms, Trichuris trichiura, Ascaris lumbricoides) were diagnosed using both the Kato Katz and formol ether concentration techniques.Schistosomiasis was more prevalent country-wide (22.7%) than STH (5.5%). The prevalence of S. haematobium was 18.0% while that of S. mansoni was 7.2%. Hookworms were the most common STH with a prevalence of 3.2% followed by A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura with prevalence of 2.5% and 0.1%, respectively. The prevalence of heavy infection intensity as defined by WHO for any schistosome species was 5.8% (range 0%-18.3% in districts). Only light to moderate infection intensities were observed for STH species. The distribution of schistosomiasis and STH varied significantly between provinces, districts and schools (p<0.001). Overall, the prevalence of co-infection with schistosomiasis and STH was 1.5%. The actual co-endemicity of schistosomiasis and STH was observed in 43 (63.2%) of the 68 districts screened.This study provided comprehensive baseline data on the distribution of schistosomiasis and STH that formed the basis for initiating a national control and elimination programme for these two neglected tropical diseases in Zimbabwe

Health information seeking on the Internet: a double divide? Results from a representative survey in the Paris metropolitan area, France, 2005–2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Internet is a major source of information for professionals and the general public, especially in the field of health. However, despite ever-increasing connection rates, a digital divide persists in the industrialised countries. The objective of this study was to assess the determinants involved in: 1) having or not having Internet access; and 2) using or not using the Internet to obtain health information.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey of a representative random sample was conducted in the Paris metropolitan area, France, in the fall of 2005 (n = 3023).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Close to 70% of the adult population had Internet access, and 49% of Internet users had previously searched for medical information. Economic and social disparities observed in online health information seeking are reinforced by the economic and social disparities in Internet access, hence a double divide. While individuals who reported having a recent health problem were less likely to have Internet access (odds ratio (OR): 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53–0.98), it is they who, when they have Internet access, are the most likely to search for health information (OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.11–1.87).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the French context of universal health insurance, access to the Internet varies according to social and socioeconomic status and health status, and its use for health information seeking varies also with health beliefs, but not to health insurance coverage or health-care utilisation. Certain economic and social inequalities seem to impact cumulatively on Internet access and on the use of the Internet for health information seeking. It is not obvious that the Internet is a special information tool for primary prevention in people who are the furthest removed from health concerns. However, the Internet appears to be a useful complement for secondary prevention, especially for better understanding health problems or enhancing therapeutic compliance.</p

Predicting Progression of IgA Nephropathy: New Clinical Progression Risk Score

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a common cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Asia. In this study, based on a large cohort of Chinese patients with IgAN, we aim to identify independent predictive factors associated with disease progression to ESRD. We collected retrospective clinical data and renal outcomes on 619 biopsy-diagnosed IgAN patients with a mean follow-up time of 41.3 months. In total, 67 individuals reached the study endpoint defined by occurrence of ESRD necessitating renal replacement therapy. In the fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, there were four baseline variables with a significant independent effect on the risk of ESRD. These included: eGFR [HR = 0.96(0.95–0.97)], serum albumin [HR = 0.47(0.32–0.68)], hemoglobin [HR = 0.79(0.72–0.88)], and SBP [HR = 1.02(1.00–1.03)]. Based on these observations, we developed a 4-variable equation of a clinical risk score for disease progression. Our risk score explained nearly 22% of the total variance in the primary outcome. Survival ROC curves revealed that the risk score provided improved prediction of ESRD at 24th, 60th and 120th month of follow-up compared to the three previously proposed risk scores. In summary, our data indicate that IgAN patients with higher systolic blood pressure, lower eGFR, hemoglobin, and albumin levels at baseline are at a greatest risk of progression to ESRD. The new progression risk score calculated based on these four baseline variables offers a simple clinical tool for risk stratification

"Now we are in a different time; various bad diseases have come." understanding men's acceptability of male circumcision for HIV prevention in a moderate prevalence setting

Background: Adult male surgical circumcision (MC) has been shown to reduce HIV acquisition in men and is recommended by the WHO for inclusion in comprehensive national HIV prevention programs in high prevalence settings. Only limited research to date has been conducted in countries experiencing moderate burden epidemics, where the acceptability, operational feasibility and potential epidemiological impact of MC remain unclear. Methods. A multi-method qualitative research study was conducted at four sites in Papua New Guinea (PNG), with 24 focus group discussions and 65 in-depth interviews carried out among 276 men. Results: The majority of men were in favour of MC being introduced for HIV prevention in PNG and considered improved genital hygiene, enhanced sexual pleasure and culturally appropriateness key factors in the acceptability of a future intervention. A minority of men were against the introduction of MC, primarily due to concerns regarding sexual risk compensation and that the intervention went against prevailing cultural and religious beliefs. Conclusion: This is one of the first community-based MC acceptability studies conducted in a moderate prevalence setting outside of Africa. Research findings from this study suggest that a future MC program for HIV prevention would be widely accepted by men in PNG