Overcoming barriers in evaluating outbreaks of diarrheal disease in resource poor settings: assessment of recurrent outbreaks in Chobe District, Botswana

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal illness remains a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, with the majority of deaths occurring in children <5 years of age. Lack of resources often prohibits the evaluation of outbreak characteristics and limits progress in managing this important disease syndrome, particularly in Africa. Relying only on existing medical staff and hospital resources, we assess the use of a questionnaire survey tool to identify baseline outbreak characteristics during recurrent diarrheal outbreaks in Chobe, Botswana. METHODS: Using historical surveillance data (2006–2009), the temporal pattern of recurrent diarrheal outbreaks was evaluated among patients <5 years of age presenting to health facilities in Chobe District. Using a questionnaire survey tool, medical staff from selected health facilities assessed patients (all ages) presenting with diarrheal disease during two diarrheal outbreaks (2011–2012). Cluster analysis and classification and regression trees (CART) were used to evaluate patient attributes by outbreak. RESULTS: We identified a bimodal, annual pattern of acute diarrhea in children <5 years of age across years (Wilcox test, W = 456.5, p = 0.052). Historical outbreak periods appeared to coincide with major hydrological phenomena (rainfall/flood recession). Across health facilities, a significant percent of patients in the prospective study were in the ≥5 age class (44%, n = 515 and 35%, n = 333 in the dry and wet season outbreaks, respectively). Cluster analysis of questionnaire data identified two main branches associated with patient age (<5 and ≥5 years of age). Patients did not cluster by outbreak or village. CART examination identified sex and hospitalization as being most predictive of patients <5 years and household diarrhea in patients ≥5 years. Water shortages and water quality deficiencies were identified in both outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Diarrhea is a persistent, seasonally occurring disease in Chobe District, Botswana. Lack of variation in outbreak variables suggests the possibility of environmental drivers influencing outbreak dynamics and the potential importance of human-environmental linkages in this region. Public health strategy should be directed at securing improved water service and correcting water quality deficiencies. Public health education should include increased emphasis on sanitation practices when providing care to household members with diarrhea. While global diarrheal disease surveillance is directed at the under-5 age group, this may not be appropriate in areas of high HIV prevalence such as that found in our study area where a large immune-compromised population may warrant increased surveillance across age groups. The approach used in this study provided the first detailed characterization of diarrheal disease outbreaks in the area, an important starting point for immediate intervention and development of working hypotheses for future disease investigations. While data derived from this approach are necessarily limited, they identify critical information on outbreak characteristics in resource poor settings where data gaps continue and disease incidence is high

Experimental biogeography: the role of environmental gradients in high geographic diversity in Cape Proteaceae

One of the fundamental dimensions of biodiversity is the rate of species turnover across geographic distance. The Cape Floristic Region of South Africa has exceptionally high geographic species turnover, much of which is associated with groups of closely related species with mostly or completely non-overlapping distributions. A basic unresolved question about biodiversity in this global hotspot is the relative importance of ecological gradients in generating and maintaining high geographic turnover in the region. We used reciprocal transplant experiments to test the extent to which abiotic environmental factors may limit the distributions of a group of closely related species in the genus Protea (Proteaceae), and thus elevate species turnover in this diverse, iconic family. We tested whether these species have a “home site advantage” in demographic rates (germination, growth, mortality), and also parameterized stage-structured demographic models for the species. Two of the three native species were predicted to have a demographic advantage at their home sites. The models also predicted, however, that species could maintain positive population growth rates at sites beyond their current distribution limits. Thus the experiment suggests that abiotic limitation under current environmental conditions does not fully explain the observed distribution limits or resulting biogeographic pattern. One potentially important mechanism is dispersal limitation, which is consistent with estimates based on genetic data and mechanistic dispersal models, though other mechanisms including competition may also play a role