The legacy of 20th Century landscape change on today’s woodland carabid communities

Aim For many species, the effects of landscape change can involve a time lag and result in an extinction debt. The landscape matrix plays a vital role in supporting species populations. However, the importance of the historical composition and configuration of landscape mosaics has received little attention, with studies focusing on the effects of loss and fragmentation of single (focal) habitat over time. We investigated the importance of historical and contemporary landscape heterogeneity (composition and configuration) to identify how landscape change has, and is continuing to have, an effect on current woodland carabid communities. Location Lowland Britain. Methods Carabids were sampled from woodlands in 36 tetrads of 4 km2. Ordination methods analysed current community response to representations of contemporary and historical (1930’s) landscape heterogeneity. The effects of 80 years of landscape change on current carabid assemblages were compared among tetrads. Results Results are consistent with an extinction debt; carabid communities correlated significantly with the historical composition and configuration of the landscape, but not contemporary landscape configuration. Community assemblages have been shaped, and many species remain affiliated with landscape conditions that no longer exist, notably, large patches of broadleaf woodland and semi-natural grassland. Recent introduction of conifer plantations has had a negative effect on the abundance of many woodland species. For many common, slow-dispersing species, contemporary and historical landscapes offered sub-optimum woodland coverage indicating a lag effect that exceeds 80 years. Increased arable landcover and loss of semi-natural grassland and heathland points towards an ongoing detrimental impact on carabid populations. Main conclusions Compared with focal-habitat studies, the landscape mosaic approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of widespread landscape change on species communities. Conservation guidance includes new planting, maintenance and restoration of semi-natural habitats, implemented across multiple spatial scales and where feasible, considering both historical and contemporary landscape heterogeneity

Simple guidelines to minimise exposure to earthquake-triggered landslides

Reducing landslide risk in many mountainous regions is most effectively achieved by reducing exposure to landslides, because landslides cannot be predicted or stopped and engineering solutions are generally impractical or impossible. Because landslide hazard is very site-specific, available hazard maps may not be detailed enough, or contain appropriate and up-to- date information, to inform decision-making. We use our experience of studying the characteristics of landslides in recent large earthquakes to describe three simple guidelines that can be used to minimise exposure to future earthquake-triggered landslide hazard. The most effective measure is to choose a location that minimises the angle to the skyline, and to keep that angle below 25° if at all possible. It is also important to avoid steep channels (those with slopes of >15°), especially if there are many steep hillsides upstream. Finally, the slope of the ground at your location should always be minimised. These guidelines do not specify where landslides will occur, but can be used to distinguish between areas which are more or less likely to be affected by landslides in a large earthquake. They can be used to reduce risk before an earthquake occurs by helping to inform decisions on where to situate key infrastructure, such as schools or health posts. They can be used to inform decisions about the locations of houses, markets, or other areas where people are likely to spend considerable periods of time, or for deciding on appropriate types of land use. The guidelines can also be used in disaster preparedness and response planning, by identifying suitable evacuation routes and open spaces for use as evacuation sites or emergency shelters. We provide some brief guidance on what to do immediately after an earthquake in order to minimise exposure to landslides, and discuss the relevance of these guidelines for protecting against rainfall-triggered landslides which may occur more frequently

A review of climate change and the implementation of marine biodiversity legislation in the United Kingdom

1. Marine legislation, the key means by which the conservation of marine biodiversity is achieved, has been developing since the 1960s. In recent decades, an increasing focus on ‘holistic’ policy development is evident, compared with earlier ‘piecemeal’ sectoral approaches. Important marine legislative tools being used in the United Kingdom, and internationally, include the designation of marine protected areas and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with its aim of meeting ‘Good Environmental Status’ (GES) for European seas by 2020. 2. There is growing evidence of climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, which may compromise the effectiveness of any legislation intended to promote sustainable marine resource management. 3. A review of key marine biodiversity legislation relevant to the UK shows climate change was not considered in the drafting of much early legislation. Despite the huge increase in knowledge of climate change impacts in recent decades, legislation is still limited in how it takes these impacts into account. There is scope, however, to account for climate change in implementing much of the legislation through (a) existing references to environmental variability; (b) review cycles; and (c) secondary legislation and complementary policy development. 4. For legislation relating to marine protected areas (e.g. the EC Habitats and Birds Directives), climate change has generally not been considered in the site-designation process, or for ongoing management, with the exception of the Marine (Scotland) Act. Given that changing environmental conditions (e.g. rising temperatures and ocean acidification) directly affect the habitats and species that sites are designated for, how this legislation is used to protect marine biodiversity in a changing climate requires further consideration. 5. Accounting for climate change impacts on marine biodiversity in the development and implementation of legislation is vital to enable timely, adaptive management responses. Marine modelling can play an important role in informing management decisions

‘Even when you are afraid, you stay’: Provision of maternity care during the Ebola virus epidemic: A qualitative study

Objective: to explore nurse-midwives understanding of their role in and ability to continue to provide routine and emergency maternity services during the time of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Sierra Leone. Design: a hermenuetic phenomenological approach was used to discover the lived experiences of nursemidwives through 66 face to face interviews. Following verbatim transcription, an iterative approach to data analysis was adopted using framework analysis to discover the essence of the lived experience. Setting: health facilities designated to provide maternity care across all 14 districts of Sierra Leone. Participants: nurses, midwives, medical staff and managers providing maternal and newborn care during the Ebola epidemic in facilities designated to provide basic or emergency obstetric care. Findings: the healthcare system in Sierra Leone was ill prepared to cope with the epidemic. Fear of Ebola and mistrust kept women from accessing care at a health facility. Healthcare providers continued to provide maternity care because of professional duty, responsibility to the community and religious beliefs. Key conclusions: nurse-midwives faced increased risks of catching Ebola compared to other health workers but continued to provide essential maternity care. Implications for practice: future preparedness plans must take into account the impact that epidemics have on the ability of the health system to continue to provide vital routine and emergency maternal and newborn health care. Healthcare providers need to have a stronger voice in health system rebuilding and planning and management to ensure that health service can continue to provide vital maternal and newborn care during epidemic

Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Stormwater harvesting for irrigation purposes: An investigation of chemical quality of water recycled in pervious pavement system

Most available water resources in the world are used for agricultural irrigation. Whilst this level of water use is expected to increase due to rising world population and land use, available water resources are expected to become limited due to climate change and uneven rainfall distribution. Recycled stormwater has the potential to be used as an alternative source of irrigation water and part of sustainable water management strategy. This paper reports on a study to investigate whether a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) technique, known as the pervious pavements system (PPS) has the capability to recycle water that meets irrigation water quality standard. Furthermore, the experiment provided information on the impact of hydrocarbon (which was applied to simulate oil dripping from parked vehicles onto PPS), leaching of nutrients from different layers of the PPS and effects of nutrients (applied to enhance bioremediation) on the stormwater recycling efficiency of the PPS. A weekly dose of 6.23×10-3L of lubricating oil and single dose of 17.06g of polymer coated controlled-release fertilizer granules were applied to the series of 710mm×360mm model pervious pavement structure except the controls. Rainfall intensity of 7.4mm/h was applied to the test models at the rate of 3 events per week. Analysis of the recycled water showed that PPS has the capability to recycle stormwater to a quality that meets the chemical standards for use in agricultural irrigation irrespective of the type of sub-base used. There is a potential benefit of nutrient availability in recycled water for plants, but care should be taken not to dispose of this water in natural water courses as it might result in eutrophication problems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

HVDC links between North Africa and Europe: Impacts and benefits on the dynamic performance of the European system

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Mokhtar Benasla, Tayeb Allaoui, Mostefa Brahami, Mouloud Denai, and Vijay K. Sood, ‘HVDC links between North Africa and Europe: Impacts and benefits on the dynamic performance of the European system’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, November 2017. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 20 November 2018. The published version is available online at doi: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.10.075. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This manuscript version is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.In the last decade, there have been several initiatives for the deployment of cross-Mediterranean HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) links to enable the transmission of electrical power from renewable energy sources between North Africa and Europe. These initiatives were mainly driven by the potential economic, environmental and technical benefits of these HVDC interconnections. In previous studies on these projects, some technical aspects of critical importance have not been addressed or studied in sufficient detail. One of these key aspects relates to the impact and possible benefit of these HVDC links on the dynamic performance of the European system which is the major focus of this paper. Several issues relating to the dynamic performance of the system are addressed here. Based on the experience gained from existing AC/DC projects around the world, this paper shows that the HVDC links between North Africa and Europe can greatly improve the dynamic performance of the European system especially in the southern regions. In addition, some challenges on the operation and control of these HVDC links are highlighted and solutions to overcome these challenges are proposed. This review paper, therefore, serves as a preliminary study for further detailed investigation of specific impacts or benefits of these interconnections on the overall performance of the European system.Peer reviewe

Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency:Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

We present the first quantitative reconstruction of palaeofloods using lake sediments for the UK and show that for a large catchment in NW England the cluster of devastating floods from 1990 to present is without precedent in this 558‐year palaeo‐record. Our approach augments conventional flood magnitude and frequency (FMF) analyses with continuous lake sedimentary data to provide a longer‐term perspective on flood magnitude recurrence probabilities. The 2009 flood, the largest in >558 years, had a recurrence interval larger (1:2,200 year) than revealed by conventional flood estimation using shorter duration gauged single station records (1:1,700 year). Flood‐rich periods are non‐stationary in their correlation with climate indices, but the 1990‐2018 cluster is associated with warmer Northern Hemisphere Temperatures and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monitored records rarely capture the largest floods and our palaeoflood series shows, for this catchment, such omissions undermine evaluations of future risk. Our approach provides an exemplar of how to derive centennial palaeoflood reconstructions from lakes coupled well with their catchments around the world

Source apportionment of groundwater pollutants in Apulian agricultural sites using multivariate statistical analyses: case study of Foggia province

<p>Abstract</p> <p>The electric grid in the United States has been suffering from underinvestment for years, and now faces pressing challenges from rising demand and deteriorating infrastructure. High congestion levels in transmission lines are greatly reducing the efficiency of electricity generation and distribution. In this paper, we assess the faults of the current electric grid and quantify the costs of maintaining the current system into the future. While the proposed “smart grid” contains many proposals to upgrade the ailing infrastructure of the electric grid, we argue that smart meter installation in each U.S. household will offer a significant reduction in peak demand on the current system. A smart meter is a device which monitors a household’s electricity consumption in real-time, and has the ability to display real-time pricing in each household. We conclude that these devices will provide short-term and long-term benefits to utilities and consumers. The smart meter will enable utilities to closely monitor electricity consumption in real-time, while also allowing households to adjust electricity consumption in response to real-time price adjustments.</p