Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds

HI as a Probe of the Large Scale Structure in the Post-Reionization Universe

We model the distribution of neutral Hydrogen (HI hereafter) in the post-reionization universe. This model uses gravity only N-Body simulations and an ansatz to assign HI to dark matter haloes that is consistent with observational constraints and theoretical models. We resolve the smallest haloes that are likely to host HI in the simulations, care is also taken to ensure that any errors due to the finite size of the simulation box are small. We then compute the smoothed one point probability distribution function and the power spectrum of fluctuations in HI. This is compared with other predictions that have been made using different techniques. We highlight the significantly high bias for the HI distribution at small scales. This aspect has not been discussed before. We then discuss the prospects for detection with the MWA, GMRT and the hypothetical MWA5000. The MWA5000 can detect visibility correlations at large angular scales at all redshifts in the post-reionization era. The GMRT can detect visibility correlations at lower redshifts, specifically there is a strong case for a survey at z=1.3. We also discuss prospects for direct detection of rare peaks in the HI distribution using the GMRT. We show that direct detection should be possible with an integration time that is comparable to, or even less than, the time required for a statistical detection. Specifically, it is possible to make a statistical detection of the HI distribution by measuring the visibility correlation, and, direct detection of rare peaks in the HI distribution at z = 1.3 with the GMRT in less than 1000 hours of observations.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in the MNRAS. This is a merged manuscript also containing material covered in 0908.385

Constraints on Dark Energy and Modified Gravity models by the Cosmological Redshift Drift test

We study cosmological constraints on the various accelerating models of the universe using the time evolution of the cosmological redshift of distant sources. The important characteristic of this test is that it directly probes the expansion history of the universe. In this work we analyze the various models of the universe which can explain the late time acceleration, within the framework of General Theory of Relativity (GR) (XCDM, scalar field potentials) and beyond GR (f(R) gravity model).Comment: 7 pages, 10 figures, revised version, accepted for publication in Physics Lett.

Computation of Solar Radiative Fluxes by 1D and 3D Methods Using Cloudy Atmospheres Inferred from A-train Satellite Data

The main point of this study was to use realistic representations of cloudy atmospheres to assess errors in solar flux estimates associated with 1D radiative transfer models. A scene construction algorithm, developed for the EarthCARE satellite mission, was applied to CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS satellite data thus producing 3D cloudy atmospheres measuring 60 km wide by 13,000 km long at 1 km grid-spacing. Broadband solar fluxes and radiances for each (1 km)2 column where then produced by a Monte Carlo photon transfer model run in both full 3D and independent column approximation mode (i.e., a 1D model)

Cosmology at Low Frequencies: The 21 cm Transition and the High-Redshift Universe

Observations of the high-redshift Universe with the 21 cm hyperfine line of neutral hydrogen promise to open an entirely new window onto the early phases of cosmic structure formation. Here we review the physics of the 21 cm transition, focusing on processes relevant at high redshifts, and describe the insights to be gained from such observations. These include measuring the matter power spectrum at z~50, observing the formation of the cosmic web and the first luminous sources, and mapping the reionization of the intergalactic medium. The epoch of reionization is of particular interest, because large HII regions will seed substantial fluctuations in the 21 cm background. We also discuss the experimental challenges involved in detecting this signal, with an emphasis on the Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds. These increase rapidly toward low frequencies and are especially severe for the highest redshift applications. Assuming that these difficulties can be overcome, the redshifted 21 cm line will offer unique insight into the high-redshift Universe, complementing other probes but providing the only direct, three-dimensional view of structure formation from z~200 to z~6.Comment: extended review accepted by Physics Reports, 207 pages, 44 figures (some low resolution); version with high resolution figures available at http://pantheon.yale.edu/~srf28/21cm/index.htm; minor changes to match published versio

Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus

Global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century1, 2, but the net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere continues to suggest an increasingly warming planet. This apparent contradiction has been reconciled by an anomalous heat flux into the ocean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, induced by a shift towards a La Niña-like state with cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past decade or so. A significant portion of the heat missing from the atmosphere is therefore expected to be stored in the Pacific Ocean. However, in situ hydrographic records indicate that Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing9. Here, we analyse observations along with simulations from a global ocean–sea ice model to track the pathway of heat. We find that the enhanced heat uptake by the Pacific Ocean has been compensated by an increased heat transport from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, carried by the Indonesian throughflow. As a result, Indian Ocean heat content has increased abruptly, which accounts for more than 70% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 700 m during the past decade. We conclude that the Indian Ocean has become increasingly important in modulating global climate variability

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations

The Role of Clouds: An Introduction and Rapporteur Report

This paper presents an overview of discussions during the Cloud s Role session at the Observing and Modelling Earth s Energy Flows Workshop. N. Loeb and B. Soden convened this session including 10 presentations by B. Stevens, B. Wielicki, G. Stephens, A. Clement, K. Sassen, D. Hartmann, T. Andrews, A. Del Genio, H. Barker, and M. Sugi addressing critical aspects of the role of clouds in modulating Earth energy flows. Presentation topics covered a diverse range of areas from cloud microphysics and dynamics, cloud radiative transfer, and the role of clouds in large-scale atmospheric circulations patterns in both observations and atmospheric models. The presentations and discussions, summarized below, are organized around several key questions raised during the session. (1) What is the best way to evaluate clouds in climate models? (2) How well do models need to represent clouds to be acceptable for making climate predictions? (3) What are the largest uncertainties in clouds? (4) How can these uncertainties be reduced? (5) What new observations are needed to address these problems? Answers to these critical questions are the topics of ongoing research and will guide the future direction of this area of research

An assessment of air-sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses

Sixteen monthly air–sea heat flux products from global ocean/coupled reanalyses are compared over 1993–2009 as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP). Objectives include assessing the global heat closure, the consistency of temporal variability, comparison with other flux products, and documenting errors against in situ flux measurements at a number of OceanSITES moorings. The ensemble of 16 ORA-IP flux estimates has a global positive bias over 1993–2009 of 4.2 ± 1.1 W m−2. Residual heat gain (i.e., surface flux + assimilation increments) is reduced to a small positive imbalance (typically, +1–2 W m−2). This compensation between surface fluxes and assimilation increments is concentrated in the upper 100 m. Implied steady meridional heat transports also improve by including assimilation sources, except near the equator. The ensemble spread in surface heat fluxes is dominated by turbulent fluxes (>40 W m−2 over the western boundary currents). The mean seasonal cycle is highly consistent, with variability between products mostly <10 W m−2. The interannual variability has consistent signal-to-noise ratio (~2) throughout the equatorial Pacific, reflecting ENSO variability. Comparisons at tropical buoy sites (10°S–15°N) over 2007–2009 showed too little ocean heat gain (i.e., flux into the ocean) in ORA-IP (up to 1/3 smaller than buoy measurements) primarily due to latent heat flux errors in ORA-IP. Comparisons with the Stratus buoy (20°S, 85°W) over a longer period, 2001–2009, also show the ORA-IP ensemble has 16 W m−2 smaller net heat gain, nearly all of which is due to too much latent cooling caused by differences in surface winds imposed in ORA-IP