The Adverse Impact of Temperature on Income

Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

A Composite Likelihood-based Approach for Change-point Detection in Spatio-temporal Process

This paper develops a unified, accurate and computationally efficient method for change-point inference in non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise stationary spatio-temporal process, we consider simultaneous estimation of the number and locations of change-points, and model parameters in each segment. A composite likelihood-based criterion is developed for change-point and parameters estimation. Asymptotic theories including consistency and distribution of the estimators are derived under mild conditions. In contrast to classical results in fixed dimensional time series that the asymptotic error of change-point estimator is $O_{p}(1)$, exact recovery of true change-points is guaranteed in the spatio-temporal setting. More surprisingly, the consistency of change-point estimation can be achieved without any penalty term in the criterion function. A computational efficient pruned dynamic programming algorithm is developed for the challenging criterion optimization problem. Simulation studies and an application to U.S. precipitation data are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method

Income and temperatures: Working paper series--10-06

The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently, empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income, and therefore global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However, recently Nordhaus (2006) finds that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to a model misspecification or an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model, we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 3 degrees Celsius in temperature can be as much as a 9% decrease in income for developed nations such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Therefore, our results suggest more aggressive climate mitigation policy

Multiuser Precoding and Channel Estimation for Hybrid Millimeter Wave MIMO Systems

In this paper, we develop a low-complexity channel estimation for hybrid millimeter wave (mmWave) systems, where the number of radio frequency (RF) chains is much less than the number of antennas equipped at each transceiver. The proposed channel estimation algorithm aims to estimate the strongest angle-of-arrivals (AoAs) at both the base station (BS) and the users. Then all the users transmit orthogonal pilot symbols to the BS via these estimated strongest AoAs to facilitate the channel estimation. The algorithm does not require any explicit channel state information (CSI) feedback from the users and the associated signalling overhead of the algorithm is only proportional to the number of users, which is significantly less compared to various existing schemes. Besides, the proposed algorithm is applicable to both non-sparse and sparse mmWave channel environments. Based on the estimated CSI, zero-forcing (ZF) precoding is adopted for multiuser downlink transmission. In addition, we derive a tight achievable rate upper bound of the system. Our analytical and simulation results show that the proposed scheme offer a considerable achievable rate gain compared to fully digital systems, where the number of RF chains equipped at each transceiver is equal to the number of antennas. Furthermore, the achievable rate performance gap between the considered hybrid mmWave systems and the fully digital system is characterized, which provides useful system design insights.Comment: 6 pages, accepted for presentation, ICC 201

Nonlocal effects in thin 4H-SiC UV avalanche photodiodes

The avalanche multiplication and excess noise characteristics of 4H-SiC avalanche photodiodes with i-region widths of 0.105 and 0.285 mum have been investigated using 230-365-nm light, while the responsivities of the photodiodes at unity gain were examined for wavelengths up to 375 nm. Peak unity gain responsivities of more than 130 mA/W at 265 nm, equivalent to quantum efficiencies of more than 60%, were obtained for both structures. The measured avalanche characteristics show, that beta > alpha and that the beta/alpha ratio remains large even in thin 4H-SiC avalanche regions. Very low excess noise, corresponding to k(eff) < 0.15 in the local noise model, where k(eff) = alpha/beta(beta/alpha) for hole (electron) injection, was measured with 365-nm light in both structures. Modeling the experimental results using a simple quantum efficiency model and a nonlocal description yields effective ionization threshold energies of 12 and 8 eV for electrons and holes, respectively, and suggests that the dead space in 4H-SiC is soft. Although dead space is important, pure hole injection is still required to ensure low excess noise in thin 4H-SiC APDs owing to beta/alpha ratios that remain large, even at very high fields