Minding impacting events in a model of stochastic variance

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a variety of systems impacting events are hardly forgot, we split the process into two different regimes: a first one for regular periods where the average volatility of the fluctuations within a certain period of time is below a certain threshold and another one when the local standard deviation outnumbers it. In the former situation we use standard rules for heteroscedastic processes whereas in the latter case the system starts recalling past values that surpassed the threshold. Our results show that for appropriate parameter values the model is able to provide fat tailed probability density functions and strong persistence of the instantaneous variance characterised by large values of the Hurst exponent is greater than 0.8, which are ubiquitous features in complex systems.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. To published in PLoS on

The last dinosaurs of Brazil: The Bauru Group and its implications for the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

ABSTRACT The non-avian dinosaurs died out at the end of the Cretaceous, ~66 million years ago, after an asteroid impact. The prevailing hypothesis is that the effects of the impact suddenly killed the dinosaurs, but the poor fossil record of latest Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian) dinosaurs from outside Laurasia (and even more particularly, North America) makes it difficult to test specific extinction scenarios. Over the past few decades, a wealth of new discoveries from the Bauru Group of Brazil has revealed a unique window into the evolution of terminal Cretaceous dinosaurs from the southern continents. We review this record and demonstrate that there was a diversity of dinosaurs, of varying body sizes, diets, and ecological roles, that survived to the very end of the Cretaceous (Maastrichtian: 72-66 million years ago) in Brazil, including a core fauna of titanosaurian sauropods and abelisaurid and carcharodontosaurid theropods, along with a variety of small-to-mid-sized theropods. We argue that this pattern best fits the hypothesis that southern dinosaurs, like their northern counterparts, were still diversifying and occupying prominent roles in their ecosystems before the asteroid suddenly caused their extinction. However, this hypothesis remains to be tested with more refined paleontological and geochronological data, and we give suggestions for future work