Investing in Disaster Risk Reduction: A Global Fund

I focus on three issues that are, in my view, the most pertinent to addressing the need to deal with catastrophic, low-probability storms and earthquakes (most likely to occur in Asia and/or the Caribbean): (1) the large benefits and benefit/cost ratios from early-warning systems; (2) the feasibility of an international disaster risk reduction intervention fund and its guiding principles, and (3) an evaluation of the Copenhagen Consensus methodology that relate to the Kunreuther and Michel-Kerjan challenge paper

The 1960 Tsunami in Hawaii: Long Term Consequences of a Coastal Disaster

Research on the economic and human toll of natural disasters focuses on the short-term, often ignoring the important long-term impacts of these catastrophic events. The main reason for the lack of empirical research on the long-term is the inherent and unavoidable difficulty in identifying any long-term impacts and attributing them to the disaster. On the 23rd of May 1960, a devastating tsunami struck the city of Hilo on the island of Hawaii. Remarkably, there was no significant injury or damage elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands. This tsunami provides a unique natural experiment as the tsunami was unexpected, and the other Hawaiian Islands, which were not hit by the tsunami, provide an ideal control group that enables us to precisely identify the counter-factual. We use a newly developed synthetic control methodology formalized in Abadie et al. (2010) to measure the long-term impacts of the tsunami. We find that while wages did not decline noticeably, population and employment trends shifted. Fifteen years after the event, unemployment was still 32% higher and population was still 9% lower than it would have been had the tsunami not occurred. We also find a corresponding decrease in the number of employers and sugar production in the county

Counting outerplanar maps

A map is outerplanar if all its vertices lie in the outer face. We enumerate various classes of rooted outerplanar maps with respect to the number of edges and vertices. The proofs involve several bijections with lattice paths. As a consequence of our results, we obtain an e cient scheme for encoding simple outerplanar maps.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Behavioural compensation by drivers of a simulator when using a vision enhancement system

Technological progress is suggesting dramatic changes to the tasks of the driver, with the general aim of making driving environment safer. Before any of these technologies are implemented, empirical research is required to establish if these devices do, in fact, bring about the anticipated improvements. Initially, at least, simulated driving environments offer a means of conducting this research. The study reported here concentrates on the application of a vision enhancement (VE) system within the risk homeostasis paradigm. It was anticipated, in line with risk homeostasis theory, that drivers would compensate for the reduction in risk by increasing speed. The results support the hypothesis although, after a simulated failure of the VE system, drivers did reduce their speed due to reduced confidence in the reliability of the system

Unzipping Kinetics of Double-Stranded DNA in a Nanopore

We studied the unzipping kinetics of single molecules of double-stranded DNA by pulling one of their two strands through a narrow protein pore. PCR analysis yielded the first direct proof of DNA unzipping in such a system. The time to unzip each molecule was inferred from the ionic current signature of DNA traversal. The distribution of times to unzip under various experimental conditions fit a simple kinetic model. Using this model, we estimated the enthalpy barriers to unzipping and the effective charge of a nucleotide in the pore, which was considerably smaller than previously assumed.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, Accepted: Physics Review Letter

The CMS Tracker Readout Front End Driver

The Front End Driver, FED, is a 9U 400mm VME64x card designed for reading out the Compact Muon Solenoid, CMS, silicon tracker signals transmitted by the APV25 analogue pipeline Application Specific Integrated Circuits. The FED receives the signals via 96 optical fibers at a total input rate of 3.4 GB/sec. The signals are digitized and processed by applying algorithms for pedestal and common mode noise subtraction. Algorithms that search for clusters of hits are used to further reduce the input rate. Only the cluster data along with trigger information of the event are transmitted to the CMS data acquisition system using the S-LINK64 protocol at a maximum rate of 400 MB/sec. All data processing algorithms on the FED are executed in large on-board Field Programmable Gate Arrays. Results on the design, performance, testing and quality control of the FED are presented and discussed

Pragmatic Ontology Evolution: Reconciling User Requirements and Application Performance

Increasingly, organizations are adopting ontologies to describe their large catalogues of items. These ontologies need to evolve regularly in response to changes in the domain and the emergence of new requirements. An important step of this process is the selection of candidate concepts to include in the new version of the ontology. This operation needs to take into account a variety of factors and in particular reconcile user requirements and application performance. Current ontology evolution methods focus either on ranking concepts according to their relevance or on preserving compatibility with existing applications. However, they do not take in consideration the impact of the ontology evolution process on the performance of computational tasks – e.g., in this work we focus on instance tagging, similarity computation, generation of recommendations, and data clustering. In this paper, we propose the Pragmatic Ontology Evolution (POE) framework, a novel approach for selecting from a group of candidates a set of concepts able to produce a new version of a given ontology that i) is consistent with the a set of user requirements (e.g., max number of concepts in the ontology), ii) is parametrised with respect to a number of dimensions (e.g., topological considerations), and iii) effectively supports relevant computational tasks. Our approach also supports users in navigating the space of possible solutions by showing how certain choices, such as limiting the number of concepts or privileging trendy concepts rather than historical ones, would reflect on the application performance. An evaluation of POE on the real-world scenario of the evolving Springer Nature taxonomy for editorial classification yielded excellent results, demonstrating a significant improvement over alternative approaches

Elastic and Raman scattering of 9.0 and 11.4 MeV photons from Au, Dy and In

Monoenergetic photons between 8.8 and 11.4 MeV were scattered elastically and in elastically (Raman) from natural targets of Au, Dy and In.15 new cross sections were measured. Evidence is presented for a slight deformation in the 197Au nucleus, generally believed to be spherical. It is predicted, on the basis of these measurements, that the Giant Dipole Resonance of Dy is very similar to that of 160Gd. A narrow isolated resonance at 9.0 MeV is observed in In.Comment: 31 pages, 11 figure

On the Relationship Between Complex Potentials and Strings of Projection Operators

It is of interest in a variety of contexts, and in particular in the arrival time problem, to consider the quantum state obtained through unitary evolution of an initial state regularly interspersed with periodic projections onto the positive $x$-axis (pulsed measurements). Echanobe, del Campo and Muga have given a compelling but heuristic argument that the state thus obtained is approximately equivalent to the state obtained by evolving in the presence of a certain complex potential of step-function form. In this paper, with the help of the path decomposition expansion of the associated propagators, we give a detailed derivation of this approximate equivalence. The propagator for the complex potential is known so the bulk of the derivation consists of an approximate evaluation of the propagator for the free particle interspersed with periodic position projections. This approximate equivalence may be used to show that to produce significant reflection, the projections must act at time spacing less than 1/E, where E is the energy scale of the initial state.Comment: 29 pages, LaTex, 4 figures. Substantial revision