Natural resource wealth “a truly double edged sword?”: a comparative study between Iran and Norway

This is an analytical comparative study done from a historical perspective between Iran and Norway as classic examples of countries touched by resource abundance contrastingly. The study tries to highlight the factors which turn oil riches into a curse so as to serve as a brief practical set of guidelines for countries facing the possibility of a natural resource related revenue increase. This study, however, does not purport to cover all the factors in play, but is rather of an interdisciplinary nature demonstrating the significance of Politics in the fate of Oil-rich countries. An abridged account of the petroleum sector and some other relevant information about the two states is initially given. The study then focuses on historical, economic, management and political differences which could have been influential in the way the two countries have been affected by their riches. A number of key differences are listed and elaborated on in more detail with the aid of examples invoked from similar countries. The study finds that factors such as the political structure of a country as well as its population and timing of oil discoveries, as factors not completely controlled by the state, carry a lot of weight in determining how successful a country is likely to be in managing its resources.Resource riches; resource curse; Norway; Iran

Power market reforms and privatization of the electricity industry in the Iranian energy sector; an uphill struggle?

Following the successful experience of some developed counties in Power market restructuring and reforms, many developing countries have followed suit. Iran has for the last thirty years, since its Islamic revolution of 1979, had an economy dominated by the state, but has been pushed to take some legal steps towards private participation in the electricity sector so as to meet the rapidly rising electricity demand. This paper aims to appraise the stressfulness of Power market restructuring and privatization of electricity industry in Iran. A few years from the commencement of the reforms, the program can be assessed as realistically successful. However, there are plentiful challenges which need to be addressed through legislation. In this study, challenges to competition and Pitfalls of the reforms in the Iranian restructured electricity market will be reviewed. as well as this, a number of recommendations will be offered.Power market restructuring; privatization;Islamic Republic of Iran

Architectural Energy Efficiency

Zugleich gedruckt veröffentlicht im Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin unter der ISBN 978-3-7983-2552-4.Energy saving in buildings through cost and energy-intensive measures, such as the application of additional building materials and technologies, is only possible with a great consumption of resources and CO2 emissions for their production. For low energy buildings, the investment costs, including user costs and governmental subsidies, are generally high, and construction is not always economically viable in consideration of the national capital in the present economic conditions of most countries. For these reasons, it is first of all necessary to apply cost and resource-efficient measures to save energy in buildings and then make use of additional cost and energy-intensive measures by improving the thermal envelope, the HVAC system or by installing energy generating systems. One of the most cost effective and ecological methods of energy saving in buildings is the reduction of energy requirements through climate responsive architecture. Due to the fact that energy saving through the optimization of architecture is not only cost-neutral, resource-efficient and carbon-neutral but also has a very high energy-saving potential, the first and most important strategy to save energy should be an optimized and climate responsive design. Energy saving through optimized architectural design is economically and ecologically sustainable. The development of building simulation science in the last decades has made it easier to study the energy performance of buildings. Tools have made it possible to predict the complex behavior of buildings regarding the climate. Except for the comparison of different building typologies to find the most efficient, there are no other methods to achieve energy savings through the architectural design, which can be applied by a variety of building types and climates. Therefore, in order to encourage the optimization of architectural design, it is necessary to improve these methods which represent strategies to significantly reduce the energy demand of buildings. Architectural Energy Efficiency is a parametric method which separately studies the effects of various energy-related architectural factors on the energy demand of buildings by using dynamic energy simulations to find the, from an energy efficiency point of view, optimum value for each of these. The architectural factors include orientation, building elongation, building form, opening ratio in different orientations, sun shading, natural ventilation etc. The research process that led to the formulation of the Architectural Energy Efficiency method is based on a series of simulations carried out by a dynamic simulation software tool (DesignBuilder) to calculate the energy demands of a building with different variants for a single architectural feature. The aim of the simulations is to find an optimum set of energy-related variables that result in the best and most efficient energy performance for a specific building type and climate. This method of efficiency illustrates the effects different architectural features have on the various energy demands of buildings. The criteria are derived from the application of this method for a specific building occupation and climate, and can be applied in the design process of buildings, which leads to improvements of the energy performance and a reduction of resource consumption. As the architectural design affects the heating and cooling as well as the lighting energy demands of buildings, the optimum value of each factor must be based on these three aspects. The heating, cooling and lighting energy demands of buildings all behave very differently. Therefore, these three energy demands together (i. e. the sum of heating, cooling and lighting energy) must also be applied as a criterion to study the building energy performance and find the optimum value for each architectural feature. The criteria for selecting the best variant can not only be based on the total energy demand, but should also consider the primary energy demand, the CO2 emissions, energy costs (for heating, cooling and lighting), life cycle costs, etc. The application of these findings to the architectural design of buildings minimizes the energy demand, the CO2 emissions and energy costs of the building, does not, however, affect the initial building costs. The advantages of energy saving through optimizing the architectural design are not only the improvement of the building’s energy performance, but also the fact that the energy saving is cost and resource-efficient. This means that the energy demand of a building will decrease without increasing the investment costs of the building and without consuming any resources and energy for the production of additional building materials. The cost and resource efficiency contributes towards the economic and ecological sustainability of a building during the full life cycle

Relationship between U-Values, Energy Demand and Life Cycle Costs in Office Buildings

Zugleich gedruckt veröffentlicht im Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin unter der ISBN 978-3-7983-2581-4.This volume of the Young Cities Research Briefs presents the New Generation Office Building, as one of the pilot projects of the Young Cities Research Project, and describes the energy and cost matters using different thermal resistances of the building envelope. It includes two chapters: the first with an alternative design of the New Generation Office Building as a very low energy office building. The chapter includes the main objectives of the pilot project, some of the concepts applied as well as the architectural plans. The second chapter studies the behavior of the energy demand and the life cycle costs of the office building with different U-values. The aim here was to determine the optimum U-value for the building in the warm and dry climate of Hashtgerd New Town, Iran. Dynamic energy simulation is used to calculate the heating and cooling energy demands of the New Generation Office Building with nine different building envelopes. The results show the positive effects of thermal insulation in winter, but also the negative impacts in summer, which calls for special provisions to the building design for these months. Concerning the cost analysis, the costs associated with the nine case studies – including the initial, maintenance, energy and life cycle costs - are calculated for a 15-year period and compared. The only monetary savings that can be achieved are through a reduction of the energy costs in some of the cases with insulation, whereas all other costs are higher as a result of more insulating material used in the construction. Since the energy costs of the New Generation Office Building are only 5% of the total life cycle cost, the savings do not reduce the life cycle costs significantly

Intelligent Design using Solar-Climatic Vision : Energy and Comfort Improvement in Architecture and Urban Planning using SOLARCHVISION

Zugleich gedruckt erschienen im Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin: ISBN 978-3-7983-2675-0; ISSN 2193-6099Aufgrund der Verfügbarkeit von Energie, Materialien und Technologien erhöht sich der Wohnkomfort in Gebäuden weltweit. Jedoch stehen wir auch vor dem Problem, dass Gebäude und Städte für einen hohen Anteil des weltweiten Energieverbrauchs verantwortlich sind. Umweltverschmutzung, Wärmeinseleffekte, Klimawandel und globale Erwärmung sind nur einige der vielen Herausforderungen, mit denen die menschliche Rasse, ebenso sowie alles weitere Leben auf der Erde, in Zukunft umgehen muss. In absehbarer Zeit wird diese komplexe globale Situation gründliche, ganzheitliche und örtliche Eingriffe erfordern. Dieses Buch richtet die Aufmerksamkeit auf die Sonne und dadurch auch darauf, wie ein solarklimatisches Konzept die Architektur und Stadtplanung beeinflussen und verbessern kann. Es ist vielleicht noch nicht entdeckt worden wie klein unser Planet doch eigentlich ist und wie groß der Einfluss einer einfachen Entscheidung sein kann, aber vor allem ist es wichtig, dass die Sonne eine wichtige und immer währende Rolle in unserer dynamischen Atmosphäre spielt und dies als Grundlage bei der Suche von Lösungsansätzen erkannt und angewandt wird. Neben Architekten, Kunden und Bauherren sowie Planern, Kommunen und allen anderen Personen die Entscheidungen über die Planung treffen, spielen die in den Gebäuden und Städten Lebenden auch eine Rolle, nicht als Nutzer, sondern als Erzeuger und Betreuer, und auch sie haben eine gewisse Verantwortung. Daher sollten alle Optimierungen neuer Bauten, Modifikationen von Bestandsgebäuden und Stadtstrukturen auf globaler Ebene Bezug auf die Sonne und auf zukünftige Bedürfnisse nehmen. Das Ziel sollte es sein, die Energieeffizienz, Gesundheit, Komfort und Sicherheit in allen Lebensräumen, ob drinnen oder draußen, zu verbessern. In dieser Hinsicht sind die Analyse der aktuellen Situation, die Prognose zukünftiger Szenarien und die Entwicklung intelligenter Alternativen grundlegende Schritte. Der Einsatz von modernen Baustoffen und Technologien sowie Simulationswerkzeugen kann die Energieeffizienz und Leistungsfähigkeit eines Gebäudes verbessern. Es ist jedoch wichtig zu verstehen wann, wo und wie sie am besten in der architektonischen Gestaltung angewendet werden können, um ein ansprechendes Layout mit einer hohen Leistung für eine Vielzahl von architektonischen Aspekten zu erreichen und in Bezug auf Energieeffizienz, Tageslichtversorgung und internen Komfort ein optimales Ergebnis zu erzielen. Obwohl heute viele schon das Anbringen von Solar-Kollektoren und PV-Modulen auf Gebäudedächern und Fassaden als "Solararchitektur" betrachten, ist dies nur eine der komplexen Aufgaben in diesem Feld der Architektur. Tatsächlich beinhaltet die Solararchitektur die gesamte Komplexität der Architektur auf unterschiedlichen Ebenen. Außerdem hat sie sehr genau auf bestimmte Sachverhalte zu reagieren, welche aus den vielerorts aktuell geringen Energiekosten anderer Energiequellen resultieren. Neben der Reduzierung von Baukosten sollten andere wertvolle Verbesserungen, resultierend aus solar klimatischen Überlegungen, im Entwurf hervorgehoben und verglichen werden. In der Tat kann eine Optimierung verschiedener Elemente während des Design-Prozesses, wie z.B. Solarflächen, Baukörpern und Bäumen, nicht notwendigerweise die Baukosten steigern, jedoch dabei helfen unnütze oder überdimensionierte Elemente zu identifizieren. Neben der Verbesserung der Energieeffizienzaspekte einzelner Gebäude kann eine zuverlässige integrierte solarklimatische Planung zu weiteren Qualitäten der Lebensräume führen. Überall auf der Welt müssen wir uns auf mehr und mehr schockierende Nachrichten und jährliche Rekordwerte vorbereiten, wenn weiterhin viele Gebäude mit wenig Aufmerksamkeit auf die Sonne gebaut werden. In Stadtteilen auf urbaner Städteebene kann die unzureichende Analyse und unklare Entscheidungen über Baukörper und Orientierung die Potenziale und Leistung interner und externer Räume im Bezug auf Energieproduktion, Energiebedarf, Tageslicht, Gesundheit, Komfort und Sicherheit auf lange Zeit beeinflussen. Dieses Buch enthält ein Jahrzehnt SOLARCHVISION Praktiken darüber, wie die Architektur und Stadtplanung mit dem konstanten Weg und den variablen Auswirkungen der Sonne an jedem Standort angepasst werden kann. Das Teilen dieser Vision kann Architekten, Stadtplanern und Kunden helfen, zielgenauere Entscheidungen über energie- und klimarelevante Fragen zu treffen. Nach der Vorstellung grundlegender Diagramme zu verschiedenen Städten auf der ganzen Welt (z.B. die Sonnenwege, Sonneneinstrahlung und Temperaturmodelle), wird die Rolle eines intelligenten Designs für die Gebäudehülle beschrieben und analysiert im Hinblick auf die Suche nach einer guten Verbindung zwischen Außen und Innen, sowie die direkte und indirekte Nutzung von Sonnenenergie auf verschiedenen Gebäudeflächen. Diese Untersuchungen können neue Ansichten und Strukturen für die Erbauung intelligenter Gebäude und anpassungsfähiger Städte hervorbringen.Thanks to the availability of energy, materials and technologies, the level of comfort in buildings is increasing around the world. However, today we are also facing buildings and cities that are responsible for a high percentage of global energy consumption. Pollution, heat island effect, climate change and global warming are just a few of the challenges that the human race, as well as other living matter on earth, will have to deal with in future. Moreover, as time goes by, we may not necessarily live in healthier conditions with better life styles. Within a limited period, this global and complex situation will need thorough, integrated and local surgery. This book is designed to draw greater attention to the sun and how a solar-climatic vision can influence and improve architectural design and urban planning. It may not have been discovered yet how small our planet is and how big the effect of a simple decision can be, but it is nevertheless important to be reminded of the sun not only as a powerful and perpetual actor in our dynamic atmosphere but also as a basis for figuring out a variety of adaptive solutions that must be identified and followed. In addition to the changes made by architects, clients and builders as well as planners, municipalities and all other persons who make decisions on plans, the role of those who live inside buildings and cities, not as users, but as producers and maintainers, also bear a certain degree of responsibility. Therefore, the optimization of new constructions, the modification of existing buildings and urban fabric should be considered on a global scale in regard to the sun as well as our future needs. The aim should be to improve energy-efficiency, health, comfort and safety in all living spaces, whether indoors or outdoors. In this respect, the analysis of the current situation, forecasting future scenarios and the development of intelligent alternatives are fundamental steps. In terms of energy efficiency, daylight provision and internal comfort, the use of advanced building materials and technologies as well as simulation tools can improve the building envelope and its performance. However, it is important to understand when, where and how they should best be applied to achieve an intelligent form as well as a responsive layout with a high level of performance for other essential aspects, too (e.g. structure, view, operation). Although today many consider “solar architecture” the attaching of solar thermal collectors and PVs to building roofs and facades, this is only one of the complex tasks which should be integrated in the design. In fact, solar architecture incorporates all the complexities of architecture on different scales. Besides, it has to respond accurately to certain issues resulting from the currently low price of other energy sources in many locations. In addition to the reduction of payments, other valuable improvements associated with solar-climatic considerations in the design should be clarified and compared. During the design process, an optimization (i.e. re-arrangement, re-orientation, re-sizing) of different elements, namely solar surfaces (i.e. transparent/opaque surfaces, shading/reflecting devices, collectors), building volumes and trees, does not necessarily increase the construction costs but can help identify deficient or over-designed elements. Alongside improving the energy efficiency aspects of individual buildings, a solar-climatic vision in planning can lead to other qualities for the benefit of small and large-scale living spaces, whether indoors or outdoors. Around the world, we must be prepared for more shocking news and annual records if many continue to build buildings, whether cheap or expensive, with little attention to the sun. In neighborhoods on an urban scale, the insufficient analysis and inaccurate decisions regarding building volumes and orientation can affect the potentials and performance of both internal and external spaces in terms of energy production, energy demand, daylight, health, comfort and safety for long periods of time. This book includes a decade of SOLARCHVISION practices on how architectural design and urban planning can be adapted by the constant path and variable effects of the sun in each location. Sharing such a vision can help architects, urban planners and clients to make more accurate decisions concerning energy and climate-related matters. After presenting fundamental diagrams in different cities around the world (e.g. the sun paths, solar radiation and temperature models), the role of an intelligent design for the building skin is described and analyzed in terms of finding a good relation between outside and inside as well as the direct and indirect collection of solar energy on different building surfaces. This research can bring about new appearances and structures for the creation of smart buildings and responsive cities

Quantifying the reliability of four global datasets for drought monitoring over a semiarid region

Drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters, especially in arid regions such as Iran. One of the requirements to access reliable drought monitoring is long-term and continuous high-resolution precipitation data. Different climatic and global databases are being developed and made available in real time or near real time by different agencies and centers; however, for this purpose, these databases must be evaluated regionally and in different local climates. In this paper, a near real-time global climate model, a data assimilation system, and two gridded gauge-based datasets over Iran are evaluated. The ground truth data include 50 gauges from the period of 1980 to 2010. Drought analysis was carried out by means of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 2-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. Although the results show spatial variations, overall the two gauge-based datasets perform better than the models. In addition, the results are more reliable for the western portion of the Zagros Range and the eastern region of the country. The analysis of the onsets of the 6-month moderate drought with at least 3 months’ persistence indicates that all datasets have a better performance over the western portion of the Zagros Range, but display poor performance over the coast of the Caspian Sea. Base on the results of this study, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset is a preferred alternative for drought analysis in the region when gauge-based datasets are not available

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of meteorological droughts?

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. Pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models

Evaluation of satellite-based precipitation estimation over Iran

Precipitation in semi-arid countries such as Iran is one of the most important elements for all aspects of human life. In areas with sparse ground-based precipitation observation networks, the reliable high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite-based precipitation estimation might be the best source for meteorological and hydrological studies. In the present study, four different satellite rainfall estimates (CMORPH, PERSIANN, adjusted PERSIANN, and TRMM-3B42 V6) are evaluated using a relatively dense Islamic Republic of Iran's Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) rain-gauge network as reference. These evaluations were done at daily and monthly time scales with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° latitude/longitude. The topography of Iran is complicated and includes different, very diverse climates. For example, there is an extremely wet (low-elevation) Caspian Sea coastal region in the north, an arid desert in the center, and high mountainous areas in the west and north. Different rainfall regimes vary between these extremes. In order to conduct an objective intercomparison of the various satellite products, the study was designed to minimize the level of uncertainties in the evaluation process. To reduce gauge uncertainties, only the 32 pixels, which include at least five rain gauges, are considered. Evaluation results vary by different areas. The satellite products had a Probability of Detection (POD) greater than 40% in the southern part of the country and the regions of the Zagros Mountains. However, all satellite products exhibited poor performance over the Caspian Sea coastal region, where they underestimated precipitation in this relatively wet and moderate climate region. Seasonal analysis shows that spring precipitations are detected more accurately than winter precipitation, especially for the mountainous areas all over the country. Comparisons of different satellite products show that adj-PERSIANN and TRMM-3B42 V6 have better performance, and CMORPH has poor estimation, especially over the Zagros Mountains. The comparison between PERSIANN and adj-PERSIANN shows that the bias adjustment improved the POD, which is a daily scale statistic