Development and validation of Prediction models for Risks of complications in Early-onset Pre-eclampsia (PREP):a prospective cohort study

Background: The prognosis of early-onset pre-eclampsia (before 34 weeks’ gestation) is variable. Accurate prediction of complications is required to plan appropriate management in high-risk women. Objective: To develop and validate prediction models for outcomes in early-onset pre-eclampsia. Design: Prospective cohort for model development, with validation in two external data sets. Setting: Model development: 53 obstetric units in the UK. Model transportability: PIERS (Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk for mothers) and PETRA (Pre-Eclampsia TRial Amsterdam) studies. Participants: Pregnant women with early-onset pre-eclampsia. Sample size: Nine hundred and forty-six women in the model development data set and 850 women (634 in PIERS, 216 in PETRA) in the transportability (external validation) data sets. Predictors: The predictors were identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict complications in pre-eclampsia and were prioritised by Delphi survey. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the composite of adverse maternal outcomes established using Delphi surveys. The secondary outcome was the composite of fetal and neonatal complications. Analysis: We developed two prediction models: a logistic regression model (PREP-L) to assess the overall risk of any maternal outcome until postnatal discharge and a survival analysis model (PREP-S) to obtain individual risk estimates at daily intervals from diagnosis until 34 weeks. Shrinkage was used to adjust for overoptimism of predictor effects. For internal validation (of the full models in the development data) and external validation (of the reduced models in the transportability data), we computed the ability of the models to discriminate between those with and without poor outcomes (c-statistic), and the agreement between predicted and observed risk (calibration slope). Results: The PREP-L model included maternal age, gestational age at diagnosis, medical history, systolic blood pressure, urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, platelet count, serum urea concentration, oxygen saturation, baseline treatment with antihypertensive drugs and administration of magnesium sulphate. The PREP-S model additionally included exaggerated tendon reflexes and serum alanine aminotransaminase and creatinine concentration. Both models showed good discrimination for maternal complications, with an optimism-adjusted c-statistic of 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80 to 0.84] for PREP-L and 0.75 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.78) for the PREP-S model in the internal validation. External validation of the reduced PREP-L model showed good performance with a c-statistic of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.85) in PIERS and 0.75 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.86) in PETRA cohorts for maternal complications, and calibrated well with slopes of 0.93 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.10) and 0.90 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.32), respectively. In the PIERS data set, the reduced PREP-S model had a c-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.75) and a calibration slope of 0.67 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.79). Low gestational age at diagnosis, high urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, increased serum urea concentration, treatment with antihypertensive drugs, magnesium sulphate, abnormal uterine artery Doppler scan findings and estimated fetal weight below the 10th centile were associated with fetal complications. Conclusions: The PREP-L model provided individualised risk estimates in early-onset pre-eclampsia to plan management of high-or low-risk individuals. The PREP-S model has the potential to be used as a triage tool for risk assessment. The impacts of the model use on outcomes need further evaluation

Antecedents of hospital admission for deliberate self-harm from a 14-year follow-up study using data-linkage

Antecedents of hospital admission for deliberate self-harm from a 14-year follow-up study using data-linkageFrancis Mitrou1 email, Jennifer Gaudie1 email, David Lawrence1,2 email, Sven R Silburn1,2 email, Fiona J Stanley1 email and Stephen R Zubrick1,2 email1 Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, Centre for Child Health Research, The University of Western Australia. PO Box 855, West Perth, WA. 6872, Australia2 Centre for Developmental Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Western Australia, Australiaauthor email corresponding author emailBMC Psychiatry 2010, 10:82doi:10.1186/1471-244X-10-82The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-244X/10/82Received: 22 April 2010Accepted: 18 October 2010Published: 18 October 2010© 2010 Mitrou et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Gender Differences in Recurrent Mental Health Contact After a Hospitalization for Interpersonal Violence: Western Australia, 1997 to 2008

Interpersonal violence and mental illness are significant public health issues. This study aimed to determine gender differences in risk factors for recurrent mental health contacts after a hospitalization for interpersonal violence in Western Australia between 1997 and 2008. This population-based retrospective cohort study used linked hospital morbidity data and mental health records to identify individuals who were hospitalized due to interpersonal violence and had recurrent mental health contacts following hospitalization. A total of 1,969 individuals had a first-ever mental health contact after their index hospitalization for violence. The most common reasons for a mental health contact after interpersonal violence hospitalization were anxiety and/or depression (n = 396, 20.1%), neurotic disorders (n=338, 11.8%), schizophrenia (n=232, 11.8%), and psychoactive substance use (n = 206, 10.5%). Different risk factors for recurrent contact with mental health services emerged for males and females. For males, factors significantly associated with increased risk of recurrent mental health contacts included advancing age and not being married. However, for females, type of violence, Indigenous status, age, and living in rural or remote areas affected the risk of recurrent mental health contacts, whereas marital status did not. These findings have implications for the targeting of mental health prevention programs tailored specifically for males and females affected by violence

The INTRABEAM® Photon Radiotherapy System for the adjuvant treatment of early breast cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: initial treatment for early breast cancer is usually either breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy. After BCS, whole-breast external beam radiotherapy (WB-EBRT) is the standard of care. A potential alternative to post-operative WB-EBRT is intraoperative radiation therapy delivered by the INTRABEAM® Photon Radiotherapy System (Carl Zeiss, Oberkochen, Germany) to the tissue adjacent to the resection cavity at the time of surgery.Objective: to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of INTRABEAM for the adjuvant treatment of early breast cancer during surgical removal of the tumour.Data sources: electronic bibliographic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library, were searched from inception to March 2014 for English-language articles. Bibliographies of articles, systematic reviews, clinical guidelines and the manufacturer’s submission were also searched. The advisory group was contacted to identify additional evidence.Methods: systematic reviews of clinical effectiveness, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness were conducted. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts for eligibility. Inclusion criteria were applied to full texts of retrieved papers by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer. Data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer, and differences in opinion were resolved through discussion at each stage. Clinical effectiveness studies were included if they were carried out in patients with early operable breast cancer. The intervention was the INTRABEAM system, which was compared with WB-EBRT, and study designs were randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Controlled clinical trials could be considered if data from available RCTs were incomplete (e.g. absence of data on outcomes of interest). A cost–utility decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the costs, benefits and cost-effectiveness of INTRABEAM compared with WB-EBRT for early operable breast cancer.Results: one non-inferiority RCT, TARGeted Intraoperative radioTherapy Alone (TARGIT-A), met the inclusion criteria for the review. The review found that local recurrence was slightly higher following INTRABEAM than WB-EBRT, but the difference did not exceed the 2.5% non-inferiority margin providing INTRABEAM was given at the same time as BCS. Overall survival was similar with both treatments. Statistically significant differences in complications were found for the occurrence of wound seroma requiring more than three aspirations (more frequent in the INTRABEAM group) and for a Radiation Therapy Oncology Group toxicity score of grade 3 or 4 (less frequent in the INTRABEAM group). Cost-effectiveness base-case analysis indicates that INTRABEAM is less expensive but also less effective than WB-EBRT because it is associated with lower total costs but fewer total quality-adjusted life-years gained. However, sensitivity analyses identified four model parameters that can cause a switch in the treatment option that is considered cost-effective.Limitations: the base-case result from the model is subject to uncertainty because the disease progression parameters are largely drawn from the single available RCT. The RCT median follow-up of 2 years 5 months may be inadequate, particularly as the number of participants with local recurrence is low. The model is particularly sensitive to this parameter.Conclusions and implications: a significant investment in INTRABEAM equipment and staff training (clinical and non-clinical) would be required to make this technology available across the NHS. Longer-term follow-up data from the TARGIT-A trial and analysis of registry data are required as results are currently based on a small number of events and economic modelling results are uncertai

Unequal access to breast-conserving surgery in Western Australia 1982-2000

Background: The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of demographic, locational and social disadvantage and the possession of private health insurance in Western Australia on the likelihood of women with breast cancer receiving breast-conserving surgery rather than mastectomy. Methods: The WA Record Linkage Project was used to extract all hospital morbidity, cancer and death records of women with breast cancer in Western Australia from 1982 to 2000 inclusive. Comparisons between those receiving breast-conserving surgery and mastectomy were made after adjustment for covariates in logistic regression. Results: Younger women, especially those aged less than 60 years, and those with less comorbidity were more likely to receive breast-conserving surgery (BCS). In lower socio-economic groups, women were less likely to receive BCS (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.60-0.90). Women resident in rural areas tended to receive less BCS than those from metropolitan areas (OR 0.84; 95% CI 0.55-1.29). Women treated in a rural hospital had a reduced likelihood of BCS (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.61-0.89). Treatment in a private hospital reduced the likelihood of BCS (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.54-0.90), while women with private health insurance were much more likely to receive BCS (OR 1.39; 95% CI 1.08-1.79). Conclusion: Several factors were found to affect the likelihood of women with breast cancer receiving breast-conserving surgery, in particular, women from disadvantaged backgrounds were significantly less likely to receive breast-conserving surgery than those from more privileged groups

Does health assessment improve health outcomes in Indigenous people? An RCT with 13 years of follow-up

Objective: To examine the impact of a multi-component health assessment on mortality and morbidity in Kimberley Aboriginal residents during a 13-year follow-up. Method. A population-based randomised controlled trial using linked hospital, cancer and death records to evaluate outcomes in 620 intervention and 6,736 control subjects. Results: The intervention group had a higher rate of first-time hospitalisation for any reason (IRR = 1.37; 95 % Cl 1.25-1.50), a higher rate of injury-related hospital episodes (IRR = 1.31; 95 % Cl 1.15-1.48) and a higher notification rate of alcohol-related cancers. There was a smaller difference in the rates of multiple hospitalisations (IRR = 1.14; 95 % Cl 0.751.74) and no improvement in overall mortality compared with controls (IRR = 1.08; 95 % Cl 0.91-1.29). Conclusions: There was no overall mortality benefit despite increased health service contact associated with the intervention. Implications: Although not influencing mortality rates, multi-component health assessment may result in a period of increased health service use in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations, thus constituting an 'intervention'. However, this should not be confused with systematic and sustained interventions and investment in community development to achieve better health outcomes