yet a challenge in vulnerability and adaptation analysis

Vulnerability assessments performed for long term environmental changes in the global, sub global, national or local level regularly employ up-scaling and down-scaling of information. Such techniques do not always account for the interplay of the factors across the levels in different scales. As a result, the current studies may give an incomplete understanding of the dynamics of a complex adaptive system (CAS) that is responsible for shaping its vulnerability to a risk. This working paper is an attempt to understand the concepts of dynamic complexity in a CAS and reasons for complementarity and contrast when observed through different scales of analysis. Through a literature survey we arrive at a point that there is no single solution in scientific studies or management approaches for understanding and solving systemic problems in a CAS like socio-ecological system (SES). This leads us to look towards approaches that facilitate learning from different understandings of the same problem and negotiation among groups with different viewpoints. Finally, a case of an agro-ecosystem in the Brahmaputra basin in India is cited to illustrate such complexity and problems for decision making for adaptation. We pose three research questions- • How can we have an integrated model of the causal mechanisms that lead to an irreversible change in a multilevel SES? • How do we form an appropriate and acceptable strategy for adaptation when the state of a system changes? • What is the appropriate form of governance which can maintain the ecological resilience for adaptation during periods of environmental change

Adaptation policy and practice in densely populated glacier-fed river basins of South Asia : a systematic review

This paper reviews literature for three major glacier-fed river systems of South Asia, the Brahmaputra, Ganga, and Indus, to understand governance mechanisms for climate adaptation in the region. A systematic review methodology is applied to examine adaptation responses in the riparian countries of these Himalayan river basins at three different levels: policy objectives, institutions, and practice. Using a systematic review methodology, it presents a comprehensive assessment of the state-of-knowledge as well as state-of-affairs with respect to climate change adaptation policy and practice in the South Asia region

From discourses to systems—policymaking for adaptive management in the Brahmaputra River basin

Flood and riverbank erosion management in the Brahmaputra River basin (BRB) has traditionally relied on structural engineering interventions. However, there is growing evidence of their ineffectiveness and the social-ecological concerns they raise, including emergent systemic risks. This paper presents a social-ecological systems approach, offering a model that acts as a boundary object to integrate knowledge, foster stakeholder collaboration to tackle community vulnerability, and facilitate policy experimentation—key elements for advancing adaptive management. Employing systems thinking and system dynamics-based modelling can bridge the divide between science and policy, especially in areas characterized by data limitations and uncertainties like the BRB. This study adopts a nested approach encompassing three scales: macro (basin-level hydro-geomorphology), meso (flood control policies and infrastructure at administrative levels), and micro (village-level socio-economic conditions). The constructed boundary object promotes cross-scale learning and policy experimentation. Model scenarios of policy alternatives demonstrate that an integrated strategy—leveraging land covered with coarse sediment, innovating land use, and redesigning floodplains—significantly enhances effective land use and minimizes embankment failures. The findings emphasize the reinforcing dynamics between embankment degradation and community protests, highlight the limitations of compensation mechanisms, and reveal the erosion of adaptive capacity under the current control-based policy regime. A crucial insight from this study is that flood management strategies must evolve continually, reflecting scientific advancements, assessing policy impacts, and addressing local adaptation needs. Furthermore, a greater focus on riparian land use within development strategies is essential. The model scenarios advocate transitioning from traditional flood control to a landscape design harmonizing cropping practices and floodplain development with river morphology dynamics. While rooted in the Indian BRB context, the modelling framework provides a basis for adaptive water governance in other sediment-rich, politically sensitive, and hydrologically dynamic transboundary basins

Riverine flood hazard: Part B. Disaster risk reduction in India

The economic risk from and social vulnerability to riverine floods in India is one of the highest, if not the highest, in the world, with millions of people exposed and vulnerable, and billions of rupees worth of property and infrastructure at risk. Between 1953 and 2011 the total number of human lives lost to floods was 97,551 and the total economic cost of floods in India was 4.506x1012 INR (6912x107 USD) in 2017 prices. Embankments have been the dominant flood protection scheme, or Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, since Independence and despite the heroic construction of tens of thousands of embankments to protect lives and property from floods, economic damage continues to rise, even when normalized for inflation to take account of increasing wealth and therefore an increase in the amount of property that can be damaged. Explanations of this apparent paradox vary, but appear to centre on breaches in embankments, incomplete embankments, sedimentation in channels because of embankments and therefore deeper and more dangerous floods, human encroachment onto floodplains partly as a result of "the levee effect" whereby people feel safe in the presence of embankments, and the displacement of traditional coping mechanisms by government initiatives. While governments, NGOs, and academics have often discussed non-structural DRR, and some is in place, there has been little development of this approach to more completely complement structural interventions to reduce deaths and damage. A workshop of flood management practitioners and analysts in February 2017 produced a set of recommendations for a more robust form of DRR for India, and they are presented as a contribution to at least moderate what has become an existential crisis for many Indians.by Robert James Wasson, Vikrant Jain, Ajay Katuri, Siddhartha Lahiri,Surya Parkash, Ashok Kumar Singhvi, Navarun Varma, Priya Bansal and Chuah Chong Joo

Adaptation policy and practice in densely populated glacier-fed river basins of South Asia: a systematic review

Rivers are the cultural, social and economic backbone of South Asia. Himalayan glaciers provide source water for Asian river systems, irrigating millions of hectares of fields, and supporting close to a billion people who live in their catchments. This paper reviews literature for three major glacier-fed river systems of South Asia—Brahmaputra, Ganga and Indus—to understand governance mechanisms for climate adaptation in the region. Policy ambiguity at the national level in Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan raises questions about the capacity of the region to operationalize principles of adaptive governance. Better seasonal climate information and flood risk maps are essential