Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial.

BackgroundDecisions to stop randomized trials are often based on traditional P value thresholds and are often unconvincing to clinicians. To familiarize clinical investigators with the application and advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods, we illustrate the steps of Bayesian interim analysis using a recent major trial that was stopped based on frequentist analysis of safety and futility.MethodsWe conducted Bayesian reanalysis of a factorial trial in newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy that was designed to investigate whether outcomes would be improved by deeper (32 °C) or longer cooling (120 h), as compared with those achieved by standard whole body cooling (33.5 °C for 72 h). Using prior trial data, we developed neutral and enthusiastic prior probabilities for the effect on predischarge mortality, defined stopping guidelines for a clinically meaningful effect, and derived posterior probabilities for predischarge mortality.ResultsBayesian relative risk estimates for predischarge mortality were closer to 1.0 than were frequentist estimates. Posterior probabilities suggested increased predischarge mortality (relative risk > 1.0) for the three intervention groups; two crossed the Bayesian futility threshold.ConclusionsBayesian analysis incorporating previous trial results and different pre-existing opinions can help interpret accruing data and facilitate informed stopping decisions that are likely to be meaningful and convincing to clinicians, meta-analysts, and guideline developers.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01192776 . Registered on 31 August 2010

Prolonged duration of early antibiotic therapy in extremely premature infants.

BackgroundProlonged early antibiotics in extremely premature infants may have negative effects. We aimed to assess prevalence and outcomes of provision of prolonged early antibiotics to extremely premature infants in the absence of culture-confirmed infection or NEC.MethodsCohort study of infants from 13 centers born without a major birth defect from 2008-2014 who were 401-1000 grams birth weight, 22-28 weeks gestation, and survived ≥5 days without culture-confirmed infection, NEC, or spontaneous intestinal perforation. We determined the proportion of infants who received prolonged early antibiotics, defined as ≥5 days of antibiotic therapy started at ≤72 h of age, by center and over time. Associations between prolonged early antibiotics and adverse outcomes were assessed using multivariable logistic regression.ResultsA total of 5730 infants were included. The proportion of infants receiving prolonged early antibiotics varied from 30-69% among centers and declined from 49% in 2008 to 35% in 2014. Prolonged early antibiotics was not significantly associated with death (adjusted odds ratio 1.17 [95% CI: 0.99-1.40], p = 0.07) and was not associated with NEC.ConclusionsThe proportion of extremely premature infants receiving prolonged early antibiotics decreased, but significant center variation persists. Prolonged early antibiotics were not significantly associated with increased odds of death or NEC

Inhaled PGE1 in neonates with hypoxemic respiratory failure: two pilot feasibility randomized clinical trials.

BackgroundInhaled nitric oxide (INO), a selective pulmonary vasodilator, has revolutionized the treatment of neonatal hypoxemic respiratory failure (NHRF). However, there is lack of sustained improvement in 30 to 46% of infants. Aerosolized prostaglandins I2 (PGI2) and E1 (PGE1) have been reported to be effective selective pulmonary vasodilators. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of inhaled PGE1 (IPGE1) in NHRF.MethodsTwo pilot multicenter phase II RCTs are included in this report. In the first pilot, late preterm and term neonates with NHRF, who had an oxygenation index (OI) of ≥15 and <25 on two arterial blood gases and had not previously received INO, were randomly assigned to receive two doses of IPGE1 (300 and 150 ng/kg/min) or placebo. The primary outcome was the enrollment of 50 infants in six to nine months at 10 sites. The first pilot was halted after four months for failure to enroll a single infant. The most common cause for non-enrollment was prior initiation of INO. In a re-designed second pilot, co-administration of IPGE1 and INO was permitted. Infants with suboptimal response to INO received either aerosolized saline or IPGE1 at a low (150 ng/kg/min) or high dose (300 ng/kg/min) for a maximum duration of 72 hours. The primary outcome was the recruitment of an adequate number of patients (n = 50) in a nine-month-period, with fewer than 20% protocol violations.ResultsNo infants were enrolled in the first pilot. Seven patients were enrolled in the second pilot; three in the control, two in the low-dose IPGE1, and two in the high-dose IPGE1 groups. The study was halted for recruitment futility after approximately six months as enrollment targets were not met. No serious adverse events, one minor protocol deviation and one pharmacy protocol violation were reported.ConclusionsThese two pilot RCTs failed to recruit adequate eligible newborns with NHRF. Complex management RCTs of novel therapies for persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) may require novel study designs and a longer period of time from study approval to commencement of enrollment.Trial registrationCLINICALTRIALS.GOV: Pilot one: NCT number: 00598429 registered on 10 January 2008. Last updated: 3 February 2011. Pilot two: NCT number: 01467076 17 October 2011. Last updated: 13 February 2013

Behavioral problems are associated with cognitive and language scores in toddlers born extremely preterm

ObjectiveTo evaluate the relationship of parent-reported child behaviors on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) to cognition, language, and motor skills on the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development - III (Bayley-III) in toddlers born extremely preterm.Study designToddlers born extremely preterm (gestational ages 22 0/7 to 26 6/7 weeks) were tested at 22-26 months corrected age with Bayley-III while parents completed the CBCL. Socio-demographic variables and medical history were recorded. Linear regression models were used to assess the relationship of Bayley-III cognitive, motor, and language scores with CBCL scores, adjusting for medical and socio-demographic factors.ResultsInternalizing, affective, and pervasive development problem behavior scores on the CBCL correlated significantly with lower Bayley-III cognitive, language, and motor scores on unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Although externalizing and anxiety problems were significantly associated with cognitive and language scores on unadjusted analysis, the relationships were not significant after adjusting for socio-economic factors. CBCL scores were similar for boys and girls, with the exception of the pervasive developmental problem scale; boys had significantly more problems than girls (p = 0.02).ConclusionsThis study showed that parent reported behavior problems were related to lower cognitive, language, and motor development in toddlers born extremely preterm. Early findings of behavioral problems in toddlers born extremely premature may help identify children at greater risk for later learning difficulties. Adding a measure of behavior to the evaluation of these children may help better understand factors that can contribute to delays, especially in cognition and language

Heterogeneity of Treatment Effects of Hydrocortisone by Risk of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia or Death Among Extremely Preterm Infants in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network Trial: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Extremely preterm infants who develop bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) are at a higher risk for adverse pulmonary and neurodevelopmental outcomes. In the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network (NICHD NRN) Hydrocortisone Trial, hydrocortisone neither reduced rates of BPD or death nor increased rates of neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) or death. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether estimated risk for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death is associated with the effect of hydrocortisone on the composite outcomes of (1) grades 2 to 3 BPD or death and (2) moderate or severe NDI or death. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This secondary post hoc analysis used data from the NICHD NRN Hydrocortisone Trial, which was a double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial conducted in 19 US academic centers. The NICHD HRN Hydrocortisone Trial enrolled infants born at a gestational age of less than 30 weeks who received mechanical ventilation for at least 7 days, including at the time of enrollment, and who were aged 14 to 28 postnatal days. Infants were enrolled between August 22, 2011, and February 4, 2018, with follow-up between 22 and 26 months of corrected age completed on March 29, 2020. Data were analyzed from September 13, 2021, to March 25, 2023. INTERVENTION: Infants were randomized to 10 days of hydrocortisone or placebo treatment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Infants\u27 baseline risk of grades 2 to 3 BPD or death was estimated using the NICHD Neonatal BPD Outcome Estimator. Differences in absolute and relative treatment effects by baseline risk were evaluated using interaction terms in models fitted to the efficacy outcome of grades 2 to 3 BPD or death and the safety outcome of moderate or severe NDI or death by follow-up. RESULTS: Among the 799 infants included in the analysis (421 boys [52.7%]), the mean (SD) gestational age was 24.9 (1.5) weeks, and the mean (SD) birth weight was 715 (167) g. The mean estimated baseline risk for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death was 54% (range, 18%-84%) in the study population. The interaction between treatment group and baseline risk was not statistically significant on a relative or absolute scale for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death; the size of the effect ranged from a relative risk of 1.13 (95% CI, 0.82-1.55) in quartile 1 to 0.94 (95% CI, 0.81-1.09) in quartile 4. Similarly, the interaction between treatment group and baseline risk was not significant on a relative or absolute scale for moderate or severe NDI or death; the size of the effect ranged from a relative risk of 1.04 (95% CI, 0.80-1.36) in quartile 1 to 0.99 (95% CI, 0.80-1.22) in quartile 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, the effect of hydrocortisone vs placebo was not appreciably modified by baseline risk for grades 2 to 3 BPD or death

Weaning of Moderately Preterm Infants from the Incubator to the Crib: A Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether length of hospital stay is decreased among moderately preterm infants weaned from incubator to crib at a lower vs higher weight. STUDY DESIGN: This trial was conducted in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Infants with gestational ages 29-33 weeks, birthweight <1600 g, and in an incubator were randomly assigned to a weaning weight of 1600 or 1800 g. Within 60 to 100 g of weaning weight, the incubator temperature was decreased by 1.0°C to 1.5°C every 24 hours until 28.0°C. The infants were weaned to the crib following stable temperature at 36.5°C to 37.4°C for 8 to 12 hours. Clothing and bedcoverings were standardized. The primary outcome was length of hospital stay from birth to discharge; secondary outcomes included length of stay and growth velocity from weaning to discharge. Adverse events were monitored. RESULTS: Of 1565 infants screened, 885 were eligible, and 366 enrolled-187 to the 1600-g and 179 to the 1800-g group. Maternal and neonatal characteristics did not differ among weight groups. Length of hospital stay was a median of 43 days in the lower and 41 days in the higher weight group (P = .12). Growth velocity from completion of weaning to discharge was higher in the lower weight group, 13.7 g/kg/day vs 12.8 g/kg/day (P = .005). Groups did not differ in adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among moderately preterm neonates, weaning from incubator to crib at a lower weight did not decrease length of stay, but was safe and was accompanied by higher weight gain after weaning

Social Distancing and Extremely Preterm Births in the Initial COVID-19 Pandemic Period

HYPOTHESIS: Increased social distancing was associated with a lower incidence of extremely preterm live births (EPLB) during the initial COVID-19 pandemic period. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study at the NICHD Neonatal Research Network sites comparing EPLB (22 RESULTS: EPLB and EPIS percentages did not significantly decrease (1.58-1.45%, p = 0.07, and 0.08-0.06%, p = 0.14, respectively). SDI was not significantly correlated with percent change of EPLB (CC = 0.29, 95% CI = -0.12, 0.71) or EPIS (CC = -0.23, 95% CI = -0.65, 0.18). Percent change in mean gestational age was positively correlated with SDI (CC = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.07, 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Increased social distancing was not associated with change in incidence of EPLB but was associated with a higher gestational age of extremely preterm births

Early working memory is a significant predictor of verbal and processing skills at 6-7 years in children born extremely preterm

OBJECTIVE: The study was designed to investigate whether attainment of object permanence, a measure of early working memory used at 18-22 months corrected age, was associated with executive function at 6-7 years in a cohort of children born extremely preterm. STUDY DESIGN: Children enrolled in the Neuroimaging and Neurodevelopmental Outcome (NEURO) study, a secondary study to the Surfactant Positive Airway Pressure and Pulse Oximetry Trial (SUPPORT) of the NICHD NRN, were eligible for this longitudinal study. Testing completed at 18 to 22 months corrected age was compared to testing at school age with a specific focus on measures of executive function. RESULTS: Children who had achieved object permanence mastery at a corrected age of 18-22 months had higher mean scores on the WISC-IV tests of verbal comprehension and processing speed at age 6-7 years. Regression models indicated that object permanence scores were significant predictors of both verbal comprehension and processing speeds scores, after controlling for other factors. When analyzed by subgroup for sex, these results were significant for girls but not for boys. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that an early mastery of object permanence was associated with higher scores in areas of verbal comprehension and processing speed in girls. These results have implications for potentially identifying young children born preterm that are at greater risk for difficulties with cognitive and working memory skills at school age

Growth Rates of Infants Randomized to Continuous Positive Airway Pressure or Intubation After Extremely Preterm Birth

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of early treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on nutritional intake and in-hospital growth rates of extremely preterm (EPT) infants. STUDY DESIGN: EPT infants (24 RESULTS: Growth data were analyzed for 810 of 1316 infants enrolled in SUPPORT (414 in the intervention group, 396 in the control group). The median gestational age was 26 weeks, and the mean birth weight was 839 g. Baseline characteristics, total nutritional intake, and in-hospital comorbidities were not significantly different between the 2 groups. In a regression model, growth rates between birth and 36 weeks of PMA, as well as growth rates during multiple intervals from birth to day 7, days 7-14, days 14-21, days 21-28, day 28 to 32 weeks PMA, and 32-36 weeks PMA did not differ between treatment groups. Independent of treatment group, higher growth rates from day 21 to day 28 were associated with a lower risk of having a Bayley-III cognitive score(P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: EPT infants randomized to early CPAP did not have higher in-hospital growth rates than infants randomized to early intubation