Inference to the Best Explanation Made Incoherent

Defenders of Inference to the Best Explanation claim that explanatory factors should play an important role in empirical inference. They disagree, however, about how exactly to formulate this role. In particular, they disagree about whether to formulate IBE as an inference rule for full beliefs or for degrees of belief, as well as how a rule for degrees of belief should relate to Bayesianism. In this essay I advance a new argument against non-Bayesian versions of IBE. My argument focuses on cases in which we are concerned with multiple levels of explanation of some phenomenon. I show that in many such cases, following IBE as an inference rule for full beliefs leads to deductively inconsistent beliefs, and following IBE as a non-Bayesian updating rule for degrees of belief leads to probabilistically incoherent degrees of belief

Growth rate of the tidal p-mode g-mode instability in coalescing binary neutron stars

We recently described an instability due to the nonlinear coupling of p-modes to g-modes and, as an application, we studied the stability of the tide in coalescing binary neutron stars. Although we found that the tide is p-g unstable early in the inspiral and rapidly drives modes to large energies, our analysis only accounted for three-mode interactions. Venumadhav, Zimmerman, and Hirata showed that four-mode interactions must also be accounted for as they enter into the analysis at the same order. They found a near-exact cancellation between three- and four-mode interactions and concluded that while the tide in binary neutron stars can be p-g unstable, the growth rates are not fast enough to impact the gravitational wave signal. Their analysis assumes that the linear tide is incompressible, which is true of the static linear tide (the m=0 harmonic) but not the non-static linear tide (m=+/- 2). Here we account for the compressibility of the non-static linear tide and find that the three- and four-mode interactions no longer cancel. As a result, we find that the instability can rapidly drive modes to significant energies (there is time for several dozen e-foldings of growth before the binary merges). We also show that linear damping interferes with the cancellation and may further enhance the p-g growth rates. The early onset of the instability (at gravitational wave frequencies near 50 Hz), the rapid growth rates, and the large number of unstable modes (> 10^3), suggest that the instability could impact the phase evolution of gravitational waves from binary neutron stars. Assessing its impact will require an understanding of how the instability saturates and is left to future work.Comment: 28 pages, 14 figures, matches version published in Ap

Lead Poisoning and The Bell Curve

A robust environmental health literature demonstrates that preschool lead exposure can cause neurodevelopmental damage and associated adverse impacts on IQ, education, and behavior. Cognitive psychology research also shows an association between IQ and education and behavior risks, but finds that IQ is largely inherited. The impact of lead exposure was barely acknowledged in a fierce debate over IQ after the 1994 publication of The Bell Curve, but subsequent research has shown that trends in behavior linked to IQ in The Bell Curve have tracked lead exposure trends across decades and around the world. Preschool lead exposure trends continue to predict global crime trends and USA trends in education attainment, mental retardation, and teenage pregnancy. Evidence from temporal analyses and other lead toxicity research suggest a causal relationship between lead exposure and important societal trends. Trends in tooth enamel formed in early childhood also confirm that The Bell Curve reflected birth years of extreme variation in lead exposure, resulting in extreme differences in estimated behavior risks associated with IQ. This evidence also presents a new perspective on cognitive research indicating that IQ is inherited.lead poisoning; IQ; abortion; teen pregnancy; crime; education

A Critical Scan of Four Key Topics for the Philanthropic Sector: A study by the Rockefeller Foundation and Accenture Development Partnerships

The study aims to identify problem areas in the developing and developed world, as well as areas of dynamism and convergence that will, over the next five to 10 years, present opportunities to make a greater impact in the development sector. The study, which made use of a consultative process, investigates four key topics central to human wellbeing. These are: natural ecosystems, health, livelihoods, and urban environments. In each of the four identified topic areas there is a greater need to foster innovation and shift paradigms in order to expand opportunity for the vulnerable and those living in poverty, and strengthen their resilience

Container seal for dusty environment

Method maintains cleanliness of joint-sealing surfaces under dust-laden conditions. This is accomplished by keeping seal and sealing surface covered with sliding plastic rings, which slide out of the way when a joint is seated

Infinite Value and the Best of All Possible Worlds

A common argument for atheism runs as follows: God would not create a world worse than other worlds he could have created instead. However, if God exists, he could have created a better world than this one. Therefore, God does not exist. In this paper I challenge the second premise of this argument. I argue that if God exists, our world will continue without end, with God continuing to create value-bearers, and sustaining and perfecting the value-bearers he has already created. Given this, if God exists, our world—considered on the whole—is infinitely valuable. I further contend that this theistic picture makes our world's value unsurpassable. In support of this contention, I consider proposals for how infinitely valuable worlds might be improved upon, focusing on two main ways—adding value-bearers and increasing the value in present value-bearers. I argue that neither of these can improve our world. Depending on how each method is understood, either it would not improve our world, or our world is unsurpassable with respect to it. I conclude by considering the implications of my argument for the problem of evil more generally conceived