Crossing the technology adoption chasm: implications for DoD

Acquisition research (Graduate School of Business & Public Policy)DoD faces significant challenges in delivering promising new technologies to service members quickly and cost-effectively. To better understand DOD's technology adoption challenges, we review the technology diffusion literature to identify factors associated with successful and unsuccessful technology adoption processes, conduct case studies of DoD's advanced technology programs and propose a conceptual technology adoption model. The literature review identifies three overarching factors reflecting the complexities of defense technology adoption: benefit-cost uncertainty, organizational externalities, and direct and indirect network externalities. Technology adoption clearly involves benefit and cost uncertainties. Organizational externalities arise because there are typically multiple stakeholders from different DoD constituencies. Direct and indirect network externalities reflect the joint and interrelated nature of defense technologies on the battlefield. A closer look at one of DoD's advanced technology development programs indicates that success factors in this program generally parallel the results of the literature survey: the importance of benefit-cost uncertainty, management commitment (organizational externalities), technology champion (network externalities) and the prospects for future technology transfer (network externalities). Finally, we present conceptual technology adoption models incorporating benefit-cost uncertainty, organizational externalities and network externalities. These models can explain the diffusion patterns observed in the defense department: no adoption, full adoption, and partial adoption/de-adoption.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Prediction and control under uncertainty: Outcomes in angel investing

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2007.11.004Venture investing plays an important role in entrepreneurship not only because financial resources are important to new ventures, but also because early investors help shape the ventures' managerial and strategic destiny. In this study of 121 angel investors who had made 1038 new venture investments, we empirically investigate angel investors' differential use of predictive versus non-predictive control strategies. We show how the use of these strategies affects the outcomes of angel investors. Results show that angels who emphasize prediction make significantly larger venture investments, while those who emphasize nonpredictive control experience a reduction in investment failures without a reduction in their number of successes

Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision-making: Differences between experts and novices

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.02.002In support of theory, this study demonstrates that entrepreneurial experts frame decisions using an “effectual” logic (identify more potential markets, focus more on building the venture as a whole, pay less attention to predictive information, worry more about making do with resources on hand to invest only what they could afford to lose, and emphasize stitching together networks of partnerships); while novices use a “predictive frame” and tend to “go by the textbook.”We asked 27 expert entrepreneurs and 37MBAstudents to think aloud continuously as they solved typical decision-making problems in creating a new venture. Transcriptions were analyzed using methods from cognitive science. Results showed that expert entrepreneurs framed problems in a dramatically different way than MBA students

Age and frailty are independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality and increased care needs in survivors: results of an international multi-centre study

INTRODUCTION: Increased mortality has been demonstrated in older adults with COVID-19, but the effect of frailty has been unclear.METHODS: This multi-centre cohort study involved patients aged 18years and older hospitalised with COVID-19, using routinely collected data. We used Cox regression analysis to assess the impact of age, frailty, and delirium on the risk of inpatient mortality, adjusting for sex, illness severity, inflammation, and co-morbidities. We used ordinal logistic regression analysis to assess the impact of age, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), and delirium on risk of increased care requirements on discharge, adjusting for the same variables.RESULTS: Data from 5,711 patients from 55 hospitals in 12 countries were included (median age 74, IQR 54-83; 55.2% male). The risk of death increased independently with increasing age (>80 vs 18-49: HR 3.57, CI 2.54-5.02), frailty (CFS 8 vs 1-3: HR 3.03, CI 2.29-4.00) inflammation, renal disease, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, but not delirium. Age, frailty (CFS 7 vs 1-3: OR 7.00, CI 5.27-9.32), delirium, dementia, and mental health diagnoses were all associated with increased risk of higher care needs on discharge. The likelihood of adverse outcomes increased across all grades of CFS from 4 to 9.CONCLUSIONS: Age and frailty are independently associated with adverse outcomes in COVID-19. Risk of increased care needs was also increased in survivors of COVID-19 with frailty or older age

The Responsiveness of Married Women's Labor Force Participation to Income and Wages: Recent Changes and Possible Explanations

One contributor to the twentieth century rise in married women's labor force participation was declining responsiveness to husbands' wages and other family income. Now that the rapid rise in married women's participation has slowed and even begun to reverse, this paper asks whether married women's cross-wage elasticities have continued to fall. Using the outgoing rotation group of the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and estimating coefficients separately for each year from 1994 through 2006, we find that the decline in responsiveness to husbands' wages has come to an endat least for the time beingand even find evidence of rising responsiveness to husbands' wages. This increase in the cross-wage elasticity of participation occurs largely between 1997 and 2002 and is concentrated among younger women and women with children. We also explore a number of possible explanations for this development. We conclude that declining divorce rates, rising child care costs, and the increasing prevalence of high work hours for high payall of which were more pronounced at the high end of the income distributionalong with rising income inequality may have played a role. Also possible is that some of the decline is an artifact of changes in the tax system and the way income is measured. In addition, we observe some backsliding in attitudes supportive of gender equality in the market and at home, and perhaps a change in lifecycle timing among Generation X women

Correction to: Cluster identification, selection, and description in Cluster randomized crossover trials: the PREP-IT trials

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article

Incommensurate technological paradigms? Quarreling in the RFID industry

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10..1093/icc/dtl017Dosi’s work on technology paradigms and trajectories has emerged as an important idea in evolutionary approaches to the economics of innovation. This article explores these ideas using one particular case history. I examine how two technology paradigms clashed in the radio frequency identification (RFID) industry in the 2000–2002 period, a clash that manifested itself in a public quarrel that broke out between proponents of an incumbent paradigm and a challenger paradigm. These events present an excellent vantage point from which to observe a debate between two different technological perspectives within one industry to gain insights into the influence of technology paradigms