Advancing global & regional reanalyses

This report outlines the structure of and summarizes the recommendations made at the 5th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5), attended by 259 participants from 37 countries, in Rome (Italy), on 13-17 November 2017. It first summarizes the conference structure. Then, the key recommendations of ICR5 are given for the five main conference topics: production; observations (data rescue and preparation); data assimilation methods; quality assurance of reanalysis; and applications in science, services, and policymaking. Lastly, five high-level recommendations are proposed to managing agencies on how best to advance the field of reanalyses, which serves tens of thousands of users, via enhanced research, development, and operations

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict the summer (JJAS) surface-air temperature over North East Asia. DePreSys3 is based on a high resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled climate prediction system (~ 60 km in the atmosphere and ~ 25 km in the ocean), which is full-field initialized from 1960 to 2014 (26 start-dates). We find skill in predicting surface-air temperature, relative to a long-term trend, for 1 and 2–5 year leadtimes over North East Asia, the North Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Europe. DePreSys3 also reproduces the interdecadal evolution of surface-air temperature over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and North East Asia for both lead times, along with the strong warming that occurred in the mid-1990s over both areas. Composite analysis reveals that the skill at capturing interdecadal changes in North East Asia is associated with the propagation of an atmospheric Rossby wave, which follows the subtropical jet and modulates surface-air temperature from Europe to Eastern Asia. We hypothesise that this ‘circumglobal teleconnection’ pattern is excited over the Atlantic Ocean and is related to Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the associated changes in precipitation over the Sahel and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This mechanism is robust for the 2–5 year lead-time. For the 1 year lead-time the Pacific Ocean also plays an important role in leading to skill in predicting SAT over Northeast Asia. Increased temperatures and precipitation over the western Pacific Ocean was found to be associated with a Pacific-Japan like-pattern, which can affect East Asia’s climate

Transcriptional Landscape of the Prenatal Human Brain

Summary The anatomical and functional architecture of the human brain is largely determined by prenatal transcriptional processes. We describe an anatomically comprehensive atlas of mid-gestational human brain, including de novo reference atlases, in situ hybridization, ultra-high resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and microarray analysis on highly discrete laser microdissected brain regions. In developing cerebral cortex, transcriptional differences are found between different proliferative and postmitotic layers, wherein laminar signatures reflect cellular composition and developmental processes. Cytoarchitectural differences between human and mouse have molecular correlates, including species differences in gene expression in subplate, although surprisingly we find minimal differences between the inner and human-expanded outer subventricular zones. Both germinal and postmitotic cortical layers exhibit fronto-temporal gradients, with particular enrichment in frontal lobe. Finally, many neurodevelopmental disorder and human evolution-related genes show patterned expression, potentially underlying unique features of human cortical formation. These data provide a rich, freely-accessible resource for understanding human brain development

On the limits of CALIOP for constraining modelled free‐tropospheric aerosol

The space‐borne Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument provides valuable information on the vertical distribution of global aerosol, and is often used to evaluate vertical aerosol distributions in General Circulation Models (GCMs). Here we show, however, that the detection limit of the CALIOP retrievals mean background aerosol is not detected, leading to substantially skewed statistics that moreover differ significantly by product. In the CALIOP Level 2 product this missing low‐backscatter aerosol results in the retrieved aerosol distribution significantly over‐representing aerosol backscatter and extinction in the mid‐ and upper‐troposphere if taken to be representative of the undetected aerosol. The CALIOP Level 3 product assumes no aerosol where none is detected which then leads to an under‐estimation in the aerosol extinction profile in the upper troposphere. Using the ECHAM‐HAM GCM, we estimate that CALIOP nighttime (daytime) retrievals miss 41% (44%) of aerosol mass in the atmosphere