An Economist’s Guide to Heaven

This paper is the first to offer an economic model of God and humanity as optimizing agents in the context of concrete belief archetypes (religious ‘contracts’) in Judeo-Christian theology. Data support the model’s unique predictions, despite their otherwise counterintuitive, unlikely nature. For example, the model requires that in one belief archetype, ‘good works’ not increase with strength of faith, as one might otherwise expect, and that what appears may be God’s dominant contract precisely balances divine penalties for reneging on promises with incentives to seek divine ‘gifts’—an equivalence supported in the data.economics;religion

Los REA en la práctica: el cambio organizativo mediante el bootstrapping

En aquest treball investiguem un plantejament de canvi institucional encaminat a establir pràctiques educatives obertes (PEO) en una universitat i inculcar l'ús de recursos educatius oberts (REO) com a part del seu treball curricular i la seva pràctica educativa. Les pràctiques tradicionals, consistents a proporcionar recursos d'aprenentatge per a un ensenyament individualitzat en mòduls acadèmics semestrals, s'adapten cada vegada pitjor als requisits d'un panorama educatiu dinàmic i global. Els REO ofereixen una alternativa sostenible i equitativa a aquestes pràctiques tancades, i tenen la capacitat de satisfer la demanda emergent en entorns d'aprenentatge distribuït. No obstant això, canviar les pràctiques educatives continua essent un repte formidable, i l'adopció dels REO comporta una ruptura radical pel que fa a les pràctiques institucionals heretades. En aquest treball ens centrem en el punt de partida per a integrar els REO en el treball curricular i les pràctiques educatives. A la Universitat La Trobe (Austràlia) investiguem aquest canvi més per mitjà d'iniciatives emergents que d'un programa dissenyat jeràrquicament des de dalt: ens plantegem quines són les connexions necessàries per a implantar pràctiques obertes en una universitat. Descrivim tres casos de PEO que, junts, generen capacitats de REA en una universitat. Aprofitem l'estratègia de bootstrapping plantejada per Bardini com a procés d'aprenentatge iteratiu i coadaptatiu que connecta les bones pràctiques in situ amb les estructures institucionals a fi d'establir les bases de treball per al canvi emergent. Aquests casos demostren com uns processos innovadors tan dispars es poden connectar i modificar per a crear una xarxa de PEO incipient. In this paper, we investigate an approach to institutional change that aims to establish open educational practices (OEP) in a university and inculcate the use of open education resources (OER) as part of its curriculum work and teaching practice. Traditional practices that involve delivering knowledge resources for individualised learning within semester-length units of study are becoming increasingly ill-adapted to the demands of a dynamic and global educational landscape. OER offers a sustainable and equitable alternative to such closed arrangements, with the potential to meet the emerging demands of distributed learning settings. Nevertheless, changing educational practice remains a formidable challenge, and adopting OER is a radical break from legacy institutional practices. Our focus in this paper is on the starting point for embedding OER in curriculum work and teaching practice. We investigate change through emergent initiatives rather than a top-down program at La Trobe University in Australia: we ask what connections are necessary to establish open practices in a university. We trace three instances of OEP in one university that together build capacity in OER. We draw on Bardini’s strategy of bootstrapping, as an iterative and co-adaptive learning process that connects good practices in situ with institutional structures in order to build the groundwork for emergent change. These cases demonstrate how disparate innovations can be connected and re-purposed to establish a network of nascent OEP. En este trabajo investigamos un planteamiento de cambio institucional encaminado a establecer prácticas educativas abiertas (PEA) en una universidad e inculcar el uso de recursos educativos abiertos (REA) como parte de su trabajo curricular y su práctica educativa. Las prácticas tradicionales, consistentes en proporcionar recursos de aprendizaje para una enseñanza individualizada en módulos académicos semestrales, se adaptan cada vez peor a los requisitos de un panorama educativo dinámico y global. Los REA ofrecen una alternativa sostenible y equitativa a estas prácticas cerradas, y tienen la capacidad de satisfacer la demanda emergente en entornos de aprendizaje distribuido. No obstante, cambiar las prácticas educativas sigue siendo un reto formidable, y la adopción de los REA supone una ruptura radical con respecto a las prácticas institucionales heredadas. En el presente trabajo nos centramos en el punto de partida para integrar los REA en el trabajo curricular y las prácticas educativas. En la Universidad La Trobe (Australia) investigamos este cambio más a través de iniciativas emergentes que de un programa diseñado jerárquicamente desde arriba: nos planteamos cuáles son las conexiones necesarias para implantar prácticas abiertas en una universidad. Describimos tres casos de PEA que, juntos, generan capacidades de REA en una universidad. Aprovechamos la estrategia de bootstrapping planteada por Bardini como proceso de aprendizaje iterativo y coadaptativo que conecta las buenas prácticas in situ con las estructuras institucionales a fin de sentar las bases de trabajo para el cambio emergente. Estos casos demuestran cómo unos procesos innovadores tan dispares se pueden conectar y modificar para crear una red de PEA incipiente.

Developing fibre optic Raman probes for applications in clinical spectroscopy

Raman spectroscopy has been shown by various groups over the last two decades to have significant capability in discriminating disease states in bodily fluids, cells and tissues. Recent development in instrumentation, optics and manufacturing approaches has facilitated the design and demonstration of various novel in vivo probes, which have applicability for myriad of applications. This review focusses on key considerations and recommendations for application specific clinical Raman probe design and construction. Raman probes can be utilised as clinical tools able to provide rapid, non-invasive, real-time molecular analysis of disease specific changes in tissues. Clearly the target tissue location, the significance of spectral changes with disease and the possible access routes to the region of interest will vary for each clinical application considered. This review provides insight into design and construction considerations, including suitable probe designs and manufacturing materials compatible with Raman spectroscopy

Genetic Structure of Chimpanzee Populations

Little is known about the history and population structure of our closest living relatives, the chimpanzees, in part because of an extremely poor fossil record. To address this, we report the largest genetic study of the chimpanzees to date, examining 310 microsatellites in 84 common chimpanzees and bonobos. We infer three common chimpanzee populations, which correspond to the previously defined labels of “western,” “central,” and “eastern,” and find little evidence of gene flow between them. There is tentative evidence for structure within western chimpanzees, but we do not detect distinct additional populations. The data also provide historical insights, demonstrating that the western chimpanzee population diverged first, and that the eastern and central populations are more closely related in time

The Potential Impact of a Hepatitis C Vaccine for People Who Inject Drugs:Is a Vaccine Needed in the Age of Direct-Acting Antivirals?

Background and Aims: The advent of highly effective hepatitis C (HCV) treatments has questioned the need for a vaccine to control HCV amongst people who inject drugs (PWID). However, high treatment costs and ongoing reinfection risk suggest it could still play a role. We compared the impact of HCV vaccination amongst PWID against providing HCV treatment.\ud \ud Methods: Dynamic HCV vaccination and treatment models among PWID were used to determine the vaccination and treatment rates required to reduce chronic HCV prevalence or incidence in the UK over 20 or 40 years. Projections considered a low (50% protection for 5 years), moderate (70% protection for 10 years) or high (90% protection for 20 years) efficacy vaccine. Sensitivities to various parameters were examined.\ud \ud Results: To halve chronic HCV prevalence over 40 years, the low, moderate and high efficacy vaccines required annual vaccination rates (coverage after 20 years) of 162 (72%), 77 (56%) and 44 (38%) per 1000 PWID, respectively. These vaccination rates were 16, 7.6 and 4.4 times greater than corresponding treatment rates. To halve prevalence over 20 years nearly doubled these vaccination rates (moderate and high efficacy vaccines only) and the vaccination-to-treatment ratio increased by 20%. For all scenarios considered, required annual vaccination rates and vaccination-to-treatment ratios were at least a third lower to reduce incidence than prevalence. Baseline HCV prevalence had little effect on the vaccine's impact on prevalence or incidence, but substantially affected the vaccination-to-treatment ratios. Behavioural risk heterogeneity only had an effect if we assumed no transitions between high and low risk states and vaccinations were targeted or if PWID were high risk for their first year.\ud \ud Conclusions: Achievable coverage levels of a low efficacy prophylactic HCV vaccine could greatly reduce HCV transmission amongst PWID. Current high treatment costs ensure vaccination could still be an important intervention option

The role of a hepatitis C virus vaccine:modelling the benefits alongside direct-acting antiviral treatments

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is being seriously considered globally. Current elimination models require a combination of highly effective HCV treatment and harm reduction, but high treatment costs make such strategies prohibitively expensive. Vaccines should play a key role in elimination but their best use alongside treatments is unclear. For three vaccines with different efficacies we used a mathematical model to estimate the additional reduction in HCV prevalence when vaccinating after treatment; and to identify in which settings vaccines could most effectively reduce the number of treatments required to achieve fixed reductions in HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: A deterministic model of HCV transmission among PWID was calibrated for settings with 25, 50 and 75% chronic HCV prevalence among PWID, stratified by high-risk or low-risk PWID. For vaccines with 30, 60 or 90% efficacies, different rates of treatment and vaccination were introduced. We compared prevalence reductions achieved by vaccinating after treatment to prevent reinfection and vaccinating independently of treatment history in the community; and by allocating treatments and vaccinations to specific risk groups and proportionally across risk groups. RESULTS: Vaccinating after treatment was minimally different to vaccinating independently of treatment history, and allocating treatments and vaccinations to specific risk groups was minimally different to allocating them proportionally across risk groups. Vaccines with 30 or 60% efficacy provided greater additional prevalence reduction per vaccination in a setting with 75% chronic HCV prevalence among PWID than a 90% efficacious vaccine in settings with 25 or 50% chronic HCV prevalence among PWID. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccinating after treatment is an effective and practical method of administration. In settings with high chronic HCV prevalence among PWID, even modest coverage with a low-efficacy vaccine could provide significant additional prevalence reduction beyond treatment alone, and would likely reduce the cost of achieving prevalence reduction targets