THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET--A SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

A spatial price equilibrium (SPE) model of the world sugar market is programmed. The model covers more than hundred regions and contains sugar in as a sole product. It has a detailed coverage of policies and bilateral trade agreements. It is programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) in GAMS and uses the PATH solver. The SPE framework offers considerable advantages over other model approaches applied to the sugar market before. Four scenarios are simulated: A baseline scenario until 2015/16, accounting for implementation of the EU reform and market access commitments already decided upon. The liberalization scenarios include an implementation of the Falconer proposal for the current round of WTO negotiations, a full liberalization by the EU and a liberalization of all sugar policies world-wide. In the latter the world market price increases by around 30%. Results are discussed and related to special properties of the SPE approach. Strengths and weaknesses are identified and an outlook on the further refinement of the analysis is given.Sugar, Partial Equilibrium Model, Spatial Price Equilibrium Model, MCP, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Observing instantons directly on the lattice without cooling

Based on the study of the simple Abelian Higgs model in $1+1$ dimensions we will present a new method to identify and localize extended instantons. The idea is to measure the topological charge on regions somewhat larger than the extended instantons so as to average out the ultraviolet fluctuations but without losing the detailed topological information when going to the full space. The instanton size and probability density can be directly extracted from this analysis. Local dislocations, which can be avoided for fine enough lattices, can be reinterpreted as modified boundary conditions producing sectors with net topological charge.Comment: 15 pp., uuencoded compressed tar file of full pape

Variations in amenable mortality--trends in 16 high-income nations.

BACKGROUND: There has been growing interest in the comparison of health system performance within and between countries, using a range of different indicators. This study examines trends in amenable mortality, as one measure of health system performance, in sixteen high-income countries. METHODS: Amenable mortality was defined as premature death from causes that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care. We analysed age-standardised rates of amenable mortality under age 75 in 16 countries for 1997/1998 and 2006/2007. RESULTS: Amenable mortality remains an important contributor to premature mortality in 16 high-income countries, accounting for 24% of deaths under age 75. Between 1997/1998 and 2006/2007, amenable mortality fell by between 20.5% in the US and 42.1% in Ireland (average decline: 31%). In 2007, amenable mortality in the US was almost twice that in France, which had the lowest levels. CONCLUSIONS: Amenable mortality continues to fall across high-income nations although the USA is lagging increasingly behind other high income countries. Despite its many limitations, amenable mortality remains a useful indicator to monitor progress of nations

Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density

This paper generalizes the discussion about disagreement versus uncertainty in macroeconomic survey data by emphasizing the importance of the (unknown) true predictive density. Using a forecast combination approach, we ask whether cross sections of survey point forecasts help to approximate the true predictive density. We find that although these cross-sections perform poorly individually, their inclusion into combined predictive densities can significantly improve upon densities relying solely on time series information.Disagreement, Uncertainty, Predictive Density, Forecast Combination

Effects of ultra-purified polymerized bovine hemoglobin on local tissue oxygen tension in striated skin muscle - An efficacy study in the hamster

The development of hemoglobin-based oxygen carriers has been propagated for replacement of the oxygen carrying properties of red blood cells for almost one century. Using a Clark-type multi-wire oxygen surface electrode and the dorsal skin fold chamber model of the awake Syrian golden hamster, local tissue pO(2) was analyzed in the thin striated skin muscle before and after administration of an ultrapurified polymerized bovine hemoglobin solution (U-PBHb(R), Biopure Corp., Boston, Mass., USA) under the following experimental conditions: (a) hypervolemic infusion with U-PBHb at similar to 10% of calculated blood volume, and (b) isovolemic exchange transfusion with U-PBHb by replacing similar to50% of calculated blood volume. Control animals of group a received equivalent treatment with either isotonic saline or dextran 60, control animals of group b received dextran 60. Local tissue pO(2) was found slightly decreased after both hypervolemic infusion and isovolemic exchange transfusion with U-PBHb, while frequency distribution curves of local tissue pO(2) were found more narrow (less values 25 mm Hg), suggesting a more homogeneous tissue pO(2) distribution. The data thus indicate that U-PBHb slightly decreases mean tissue pO(2) after both hypervolemic infusion and isovolemic exchange transfusion which is accompanied by an effective homogenization of local tissue pO(2) distribution as compared to dextran 60. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel

Estimating High-Frequency Based (Co-) Variances: A Unified Approach

We propose a unified framework for estimating integrated variances and covariances based on simple OLS regressions, allowing for a general market microstructure noise specification. We show that our estimators can outperform in terms of the root mean squared error criterion the most recent and commonly applied estimators, such as the realized kernels of Barndorff-Nielsen, Hansen, Lunde & Shephard (2006), the two-scales realized variance of Zhang, Mykland & A¨ýt-Sahalia (2005), the Hayashi & Yoshida (2005) covariance estimator, and the realized variance and covariance with the optimal sampling frequency chosen after Bandi & Russell (2005a) and Bandi & Russell (2005b). The power of our methodology stems from the fact that instead of trying to correct the realized quantities for the noise, we identify both the true underlying integrated moments and the moments of the noise, which are also estimated within our framework. Apart from being simple to implement, an important property of our estimators is that they are quite robust to misspecifications of the noise process.High frequency data, Realized volatility and covariance, Market microstructure

Panel Intensity Models with Latent Factors: An Application to the Trading Dynamics on the Foreign Exchange Market¤

We develop a panel intensity model, with a time varying latent factor, which captures the influence of unobserved time effects and allows for correlation across individuals. The model is designed to analyze individual trading behavior on the basis of trading activity datasets, which are characterized by four dimensions: an irregularly-spaced time scale, trading activity types, trading instruments and investors. Our approach extends the stochastic conditional intensity model of Bauwens & Hautsch (2006) to panel duration data. We show how to estimate the model parameters by a simulated maximum likelihood technique adopting the efficient importance sampling approach of Richard & Zhang (2005). We provide an application to a trading activity dataset from an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market and we find support for the presence of behavioral biases and discuss implications for portfolio theory.Trading Activity Datasets, Panel Intensity Models, Latent Factors, Efficient Importance Sampling, Behavioral Finance

Continuing bonds with the living : bereaved parents’ narratives of their emotional relationship with their children

© 2017 Cruse Bereavement Care.The death of a child can be seen as one of the most devastating experiences for parents which can result in a unique and enduring grief. Parents with surviving children face the task of navigating their own grief while continuing to parent. This narrative inquiry explores bereaved parents’ stories of their emotional relationship with their surviving children. Parents told stories of emotional connection and disconnection with surviving children, influenced by the competing and potentially incompatible tasks of ‘parenting’ and ‘grieving’. The need for a relational focus to bereavement research and practice is highlighted. The findings demonstrate the need for clinicians to provide i) parents an opportunity to explore their sometimes contradicting and troubling experiences of grief and parenting and ii) children with support to make sense of their experiences in relation to the parent-child relationship.Peer reviewe