If you're so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years

This article explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of two well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes. Technical strategies were highly profitable during the 1920s and even outperformed Keynes. In the 1930s, however, both technical strategies and Keynes performed relatively poorly. While our results reveal the existence of profitable opportunities for currency traders in the interwar years, they suggest that such profits were necessary compensation for enduring the substantial risks that all strategies entailed.David Chambers acknowledges the support of the Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management, Judge Business School, and of a Keynes Fellowship from Cambridge University

Neutrophil Counts and Initial Presentation of 12 Cardiovascular Diseases: A CALIBER Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Neutrophil counts are a ubiquitous measure of inflammation, but previous studies on their association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) were limited by small numbers of patients or a narrow range of endpoints. OBJECTIVES: This study investigated associations of clinically recorded neutrophil counts with initial presentation for a range of CVDs. METHODS: We used linked primary care, hospitalization, disease registry, and mortality data in England. We included people 30 years or older with complete blood counts performed in usual clinical care and no history of CVD. We used Cox models to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for 12 CVDs, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and acute conditions affecting neutrophil counts (such as infections and cancer). RESULTS: Among 775,231 individuals in the cohort, 154,179 had complete blood counts performed under acute conditions and 621,052 when they were stable. Over a median 3.8 years of follow-up, 55,004 individuals developed CVD. Adjusted HRs comparing neutrophil counts 6 to 7 versus 2 to 3 × 10(9)/l (both within the 'normal' range) showed strong associations with heart failure (HR: 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.82 to 2.29), peripheral arterial disease (HR: 1.95; 95% CI: 1.72 to 2.21), unheralded coronary death (HR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.51 to 2.10), abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.34 to 2.21), and nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.76). These associations were linear, with greater risk even among individuals with neutrophil counts of 3 to 4 versus 2 to 3 × 10(9)/l. There was a weak association with ischemic stroke (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.57), but no association with stable angina or intracerebral hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophil counts were strongly associated with the incidence of some CVDs, but not others, even within the normal range, consistent with underlying disease mechanisms differing across CVDs. (White Blood Cell Counts and Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: a CALIBER Study [CALIBER]; NCT02014610)

Comments on scaling limits of 4d N=2 theories

We revisit the study of the maximally singular point in the Coulomb branch of 4d N=2 SU(N) gauge theory with N_f=2n flavors for N_f= 2, we find that the low-energy physics is described by two non-trivial superconformal field theories coupled to a magnetic SU(2) gauge group which is infrared free. (In the special case n=2, one of these theories is a theory of free hypermultiplets.) This observation removes a possible counter example to a conjectured a-theorem.Comment: 13 page

Low eosinophil and low lymphocyte counts and the incidence of 12 cardiovascular diseases: a CALIBER cohort study

BACKGROUND: Eosinophil and lymphocyte counts are commonly performed in clinical practice. Previous studies provide conflicting evidence of association with cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: We used linked primary care, hospitalisation, disease registry and mortality data in England (the CALIBER (CArdiovascular disease research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records) programme). We included people aged 30 or older without cardiovascular disease at baseline, and used Cox models to estimate cause-specific HRs for the association of eosinophil or lymphocyte counts with the first occurrence of cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 775 231 individuals, of whom 55 004 presented with cardiovascular disease over median follow-up 3.8 years. Over the first 6 months, there was a strong association of low eosinophil counts (<0.05 compared with 0.15-0.25×10(9)/L) with heart failure (adjusted HR 2.05; 95% CI 1.72 to 2.43), unheralded coronary death (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.69), ventricular arrhythmia/sudden cardiac death and subarachnoid haemorrhage, but not angina, non-fatal myocardial infarction, transient ischaemic attack, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, subarachnoid haemorrhage or abdominal aortic aneurysm. Low eosinophil count was inversely associated with peripheral arterial disease (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.89). There were similar associations with low lymphocyte counts (<1.45 vs 1.85-2.15×10(9)/L); adjusted HR over the first 6 months for heart failure was 2.25 (95% CI 1.90 to 2.67). Associations beyond the first 6 months were weaker. CONCLUSIONS: Low eosinophil counts and low lymphocyte counts in the general population are associated with increased short-term incidence of heart failure and coronary death. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02014610; results

The synergy factor: a statistic to measure interactions in complex diseases

Background. One challenge in understanding complex diseases lies in revealing the interactions between susceptibility factors, such as genetic polymorphisms and environmental exposures. There is thus a need to examine such interactions explicitly. A corollary is the need for an accessible method of measuring both the size and the significance of interactions, which can be used by non-statisticians and with summarised, e.g. published data. The lack of such a readily available method has contributed to confusion in the field. Findings. The synergy factor (SF) allows assessment of binary interactions in case-control studies. In this paper we describe its properties and its novel characteristics, e.g. in calculating the power to detect a synergistic effect and in its application to meta-analyses. We illustrate these functions with real examples in Alzheimer's disease, e.g. a meta-analysis of the potential interaction between a BACE1 polymorphism and APOE4: SF = 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.5-4.2; p = 0.0001. Conclusion. Synergy factors are easy to use and clear to interpret. Calculations may be performed through the Excel programmes provided within this article. Unlike logistic regression analysis, the method can be applied to datasets of any size, however small. It can be applied to primary or summarised data, e.g. published data. It can be used with any type of susceptibility factor, provided the data are dichotomised. Novel features include power estimation and meta-analysis. © 2009 Combarros et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Corporate social responsibility in a burgeoning industry: a stakeholder analysis

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent and significance of involvement of craft brewery operators in their community through the lens of the stakeholder theory (ST). In addition, differences between forms of involvement and demographic characteristics of operators and breweries are examined. Design/methodology/approach: As many as 218 operators of predominantly micro-craft breweries across the USA participated in an online questionnaire designed to gather their perceptions. Findings: While paying taxes was participants’ main perceived form of contribution, providing an artisan-made product, the significance of the craft brewery as a community “hub”, and that of increasing the number of leisure alternatives also emerged. A further 52.8 per cent of participants indicated contributing US$100,000 or more to the community annually. Statistically significant differences were revealed, for instance, based on craft breweries’ production volume, and the level of financial contribution. Various associations between operators’ perceived contributions and the ST theses were established in regard to cooperative interests (descriptive), stakeholder management (instrumental), and moral principles (normative). Originality/value: First, by examining corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the craft brewing industry and among predominantly smaller firms, the study addresses two under-researched areas. Second, a refinement of the ST in the context of the craft brewing industry is proposed, highlighting the links between ST-based theses and the findings. Third, the study contributes to three different types of literature: micro and small business, craft brewing entrepreneurship, and CSR. © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

The Einstein-Vlasov sytem/Kinetic theory

The main purpose of this article is to guide the reader to theorems on global properties of solutions to the Einstein-Vlasov system. This system couples Einstein's equations to a kinetic matter model. Kinetic theory has been an important field of research during several decades where the main focus has been on nonrelativistic- and special relativistic physics, e.g. to model the dynamics of neutral gases, plasmas and Newtonian self-gravitating systems. In 1990 Rendall and Rein initiated a mathematical study of the Einstein-Vlasov system. Since then many theorems on global properties of solutions to this system have been established. The Vlasov equation describes matter phenomenologically and it should be stressed that most of the theorems presented in this article are not presently known for other such matter models (e.g. fluid models). The first part of this paper gives an introduction to kinetic theory in non-curved spacetimes and then the Einstein-Vlasov system is introduced. We believe that a good understanding of kinetic theory in non-curved spacetimes is fundamental in order to get a good comprehension of kinetic theory in general relativity.Comment: 31 pages. This article has been submitted to Living Rev. Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org

Serum Conjugated Linoleic Acid and Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Older Men: The British Regional Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence largely from animal studies suggests that conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) may have cardiovascular health benefits. However, few prospective studies have examined the association between CLA and cardiovascular disease. We have prospectively examined the association between serum CLA and incident coronary heart disease and heart failure (HF) in older men. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of 3806 men, aged 60 to 79 years, without prevalent HF followed up for an average of 13 years, during which there were 295 incident HF cases. A high-throughput serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics platform was used to measure CLA concentration in serum, expressed as a percentage of total fatty acids (CLA%). CLA% was adversely associated with cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol but was inversely associated with C-reactive protein and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; a marker of ventricular stress). No association was seen between CLA% and incident coronary heart disease. High CLA% was associated with significantly reduced risk of HF after adjustment for HF risk factors and C-reactive protein (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.64 [0.43-0.96]; quartile 4 versus quartile 1). Elevated CLA% was associated with reduced HF risk only in those with higher dairy fat intake, a major dietary source of CLA (test for interaction P=0.03). The reduced risk of HF was partially explained by NT-proBNP. High dairy fat intake was not associated with incident coronary heart disease but was associated with reduced risk of HF, largely because of the inverse effect of CLA. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that high CLA% is associated with lower risk of incident HF in older men requires confirmation in larger studies

Interaction-induced localization of anomalously-diffracting nonlinear waves

We study experimentally the interactions between normal solitons and tilted beams in glass waveguide arrays. We find that as a tilted beam, traversing away from a normally propagating soliton, coincides with the self-defocusing regime of the array, it can be refocused and routed back into any of the intermediate sites due to the interaction, as a function of the initial phase difference. Numerically, distinct parameter regimes exhibiting this behavior of the interaction are identified.Comment: Physical Review Letters, in pres