Observation of An Evolving Magnetic Flux Rope Prior To and During A Solar Eruption

Explosive energy release is a common phenomenon occurring in magnetized plasma systems ranging from laboratories, Earth's magnetosphere, the solar corona and astrophysical environments. Its physical explanation is usually attributed to magnetic reconnection in a thin current sheet. Here we report the important role of magnetic flux rope structure, a volumetric current channel, in producing explosive events. The flux rope is observed as a hot channel prior to and during a solar eruption from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) telescope on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). It initially appears as a twisted and writhed sigmoidal structure with a temperature as high as 10 MK and then transforms toward a semi-circular shape during a slow rise phase, which is followed by fast acceleration and onset of a flare. The observations suggest that the instability of the magnetic flux rope trigger the eruption, thus making a major addition to the traditional magnetic-reconnection paradigm.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figure

The unreasonable effectiveness of AI CADe polyp detectors to generalize to new countries

$\textbf{Background and aims}$: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Computer-Aided Detection (CADe) is commonly used for polyp detection, but data seen in clinical settings can differ from model training. Few studies evaluate how well CADe detectors perform on colonoscopies from countries not seen during training, and none are able to evaluate performance without collecting expensive and time-intensive labels. $\textbf{Methods}$: We trained a CADe polyp detector on Israeli colonoscopy videos (5004 videos, 1106 hours) and evaluated on Japanese videos (354 videos, 128 hours) by measuring the True Positive Rate (TPR) versus false alarms per minute (FAPM). We introduce a colonoscopy dissimilarity measure called "MAsked mediCal Embedding Distance" (MACE) to quantify differences between colonoscopies, without labels. We evaluated CADe on all Japan videos and on those with the highest MACE. $\textbf{Results}$: MACE correctly quantifies that narrow-band imaging (NBI) and chromoendoscopy (CE) frames are less similar to Israel data than Japan whitelight (bootstrapped z-test, |z| > 690, p < $10^{-8}$ for both). Despite differences in the data, CADe performance on Japan colonoscopies was non-inferior to Israel ones without additional training (TPR at 0.5 FAPM: 0.957 and 0.972 for Israel and Japan; TPR at 1.0 FAPM: 0.972 and 0.989 for Israel and Japan; superiority test t > 45.2, p < $10^{-8}$). Despite not being trained on NBI or CE, TPR on those subsets were non-inferior to Japan overall (non-inferiority test t > 47.3, p < $10^{-8}$, $\delta$ = 1.5% for both). $\textbf{Conclusion}$: Differences that prevent CADe detectors from performing well in non-medical settings do not degrade the performance of our AI CADe polyp detector when applied to data from a new country. MACE can help medical AI models internationalize by identifying the most "dissimilar" data on which to evaluate models

Temporal and Geographic variation in the validity and internal consistency of the Nursing Home Resident Assessment Minimum Data Set 2.0

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Minimum Data Set (MDS) for nursing home resident assessment has been required in all U.S. nursing homes since 1990 and has been universally computerized since 1998. Initially intended to structure clinical care planning, uses of the MDS expanded to include policy applications such as case-mix reimbursement, quality monitoring and research. The purpose of this paper is to summarize a series of analyses examining the internal consistency and predictive validity of the MDS data as used in the "real world" in all U.S. nursing homes between 1999 and 2007.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used person level linked MDS and Medicare denominator and all institutional claim files including inpatient (hospital and skilled nursing facilities) for all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries entering U.S. nursing homes during the period 1999 to 2007. We calculated the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of diagnoses taken from Medicare hospital claims and from the MDS among all new admissions from hospitals to nursing homes and the internal consistency (alpha reliability) of pairs of items within the MDS that logically should be related. We also tested the internal consistency of commonly used MDS based multi-item scales and examined the predictive validity of an MDS based severity measure viz. one year survival. Finally, we examined the correspondence of the MDS discharge record to hospitalizations and deaths seen in Medicare claims, and the completeness of MDS assessments upon skilled nursing facility (SNF) admission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Each year there were some 800,000 new admissions directly from hospital to US nursing homes and some 900,000 uninterrupted SNF stays. Comparing Medicare enrollment records and claims with MDS records revealed reasonably good correspondence that improved over time (by 2006 only 3% of deaths had no MDS discharge record, only 5% of SNF stays had no MDS, but over 20% of MDS discharges indicating hospitalization had no associated Medicare claim). The PPV and sensitivity levels of Medicare hospital diagnoses and MDS based diagnoses were between .6 and .7 for major diagnoses like CHF, hypertension, diabetes. Internal consistency, as measured by PPV, of the MDS ADL items with other MDS items measuring impairments and symptoms exceeded .9. The Activities of Daily Living (ADL) long form summary scale achieved an alpha inter-consistency level exceeding .85 and multi-item scale alpha levels of .65 were achieved for well being and mood, and .55 for behavior, levels that were sustained even after stratification by ADL and cognition. The Changes in Health, End-stage disease and Symptoms and Signs (CHESS) index, a summary measure of frailty was highly predictive of one year survival.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The MDS demonstrates a reasonable level of consistency both in terms of how well MDS diagnoses correspond to hospital discharge diagnoses and in terms of the internal consistency of functioning and behavioral items. The level of alpha reliability and validity demonstrated by the scales suggest that the data can be useful for research and policy analysis. However, while improving, the MDS discharge tracking record should still not be used to indicate Medicare hospitalizations or mortality. It will be important to monitor the performance of the MDS 3.0 with respect to consistency, reliability and validity now that it has replaced version 2.0, using these results as a baseline that should be exceeded.</p

Acute hospital admissions among nursing home residents: a population-based observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nursing home residents are prone to acute illness due to their high age, underlying illnesses and immobility. We examined the incidence of acute hospital admissions among nursing home residents versus the age-matched community dwelling population in a geographically defined area during a two years period. The hospital stays of the nursing home population are described according to diagnosis, length of stay and mortality. Similar studies have previously not been reported in Scandinavia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The acute hospitalisations of the nursing home residents were identified through ambulance records. These were linked to hospital patient records for inclusion of demographics, diagnosis at discharge, length of stay and mortality. Incidence of hospitalisation was calculated based on patient-time at risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual hospital admission incidence was 0.62 admissions per person-year among the nursing home residents and 0.26 among the community dwellers. In the nursing home population we found that dominant diagnoses were respiratory diseases, falls-related and circulatory diseases, accounting for 55% of the cases. The median length of stay was 3 days (interquartile range = 4). The in-hospital mortality rate was 16% and 30 day mortality after discharge 30%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Acute hospital admission rate among nursing home residents was high in this Scandinavian setting. The pattern of diagnoses causing the admissions appears to be consistent with previous research. The in-hospital and 30 day mortality rates are high.</p