Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa

Observations indicate a precipitation decline over large parts of southern Africa since the 1950s. Concurrently, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased due to anthropogenic activities. Here we show that local black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions from biomass burning activities are a main cause of the observed decline in southern African dry season precipitation over the last century. Near the main biomass burning regions, global and regional modelling indicates precipitation decreases of 20–30%, with large spatial variability. Increasing global CO2 concentrations further contribute to precipitation reductions, somewhat less in magnitude but covering a larger area. Whereas precipitation changes from increased CO2 are driven by large-scale circulation changes, the increase in biomass burning aerosols causes local drying of the atmosphere. This study illustrates that reducing local biomass burning aerosol emissions may be a useful way to mitigate reduced rainfall in the region

Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy-induced bias of +/- 0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend

Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change

Global warming potentials and radiative efficiencies of halocarbons and related compounds: a comprehensive review

In the mid-1970s it was recognized that, as well as being substances that deplete stratospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were strong greenhouse gases that could have substantial impacts on radiative forcing of climate change. Around a decade later, this group of radiatively active compounds was expanded to include a large number of replacements for ozone-depleting substances such as chlorocarbons, hydrochlorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), bromofluorocarbons, and bromochlorofluorocarbons. This paper systematically reviews the published literature concerning the radiative efficiencies (REs) of CFCs, bromofluorocarbons and bromochlorofluorocarbons (halons), HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3, and related halogen containing compounds. In addition we provide a comprehensive and self-consistent set of new calculations of REs and global warming potentials (GWPs) for these compounds, mostly employing atmospheric lifetimes taken from the available literature. We also present Global Temperature change Potentials (GTPs) for selected gases. Infrared absorption spectra used in the RE calculations were taken from databases and individual studies, and from experimental and ab initio computational studies. Evaluations of REs and GWPs are presented for more than 200 compounds. Our calculations yield REs significantly (> 5%) different from those in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for 49 compounds. We present new RE values for more than 100 gases which were not included in AR4. A widely-used simple method to calculate REs and GWPs from absorption spectra and atmospheric lifetimes is assessed and updated. This is the most comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials of halogenated compounds performed to date

Rapid Adjustments Cause Weak Surface Temperature Response to Increased Black Carbon Concentrations

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by nine global coupled‐climate models, producing a model median effective radiative forcing of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) W m⁻², and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 W m⁻² based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (−0.64 W m⁻² for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low‐level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher‐level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small median global warming of 0.47 K per W m⁻²—about 20% lower than the response to a doubling of CO₂. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present‐day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K

The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models – an AeroCom experiment

The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA) and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB). Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated diversity for aerosol burden, and consequently optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols) and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g. the split between deposition pathways) and to a lesser extent on the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor) emissions. The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversity for these two species was caused by few outliers. The experiment also indicated that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences. These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters) in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies

Constraints on oceanic methane emissions west of Svalbard from atmospheric in situ measurements and Lagrangian transport modeling

Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014 and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model-supported analysis of the atmospheric CH$_{4}$mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH$_{4}$ emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model, and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH$_{4}$ emission areas. We found small differences between the CH$_{4}$ mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH$_{4}$ fluxes. The CH$_{4}$ flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol m$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggest CH$_{4}$ fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg yr$^{-1}$. All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported.MOCA—Methane Emissions from the Arctic OCean to the Atmosphere: Present and Future Climate Effects is funded by the Research Council of Norway, grant 225814. CAGE—Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate research work was supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme grant 223259. eSTICC—eScience Tools for Investigating Climate Change in northern high latitudes is supported by Nordforsk as Nordic Center of Excellence grant 57001. NERC grants NE/I029293/1 (PI. H. Coe) and NE/I02916/1 (PI J. Pyle) and Methane & Other Greenhouse Gases in the Arctic—Measurements, Process Studies and Modelling (MAMM). The ERC through the ACCI project, project number 267760. The biogenic methane emission data from the LPX-Bern v1.2 model were provided by Renato Spahni. The methane emission data from the GAINS model were provided by IIASA. GFED data are available from http://www.globalfiredata.org/index.html. Airborne data were obtained using the BAe-146-301 Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) flown by Directflight Ltd. and managed by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), which is a joint entity of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the Met Office. Zeppelin and Helmer Hansen atmospheric measurement data are archived in EBAS (http://ebas.nilu.no/) for long-term preservation, access and use. All Zeppelin data for 2014: http://ebas.nilu.no/DataSets.aspx?stations=NO0042G&fromDate=2014-01-01&toDate=2014-12-31. All atmospheric data from RV Helmer Hanssen: http://ebas.nilu.no/DataSets.aspx?stations=NO1000R&fromDate=2014-01-01&toDate=2014-12-31 (password is required until the end of 2017)

TRADEOFFs in climate effects through aircraft routing: forcing due to radiatively active gases

We have estimated impacts of alternative aviation routings on the radiative forcing. Changes in ozone and OH have been estimated in four Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) participating in the TRADEOFF project. Radiative forcings due to ozone and methane have been calculated accordingly. In addition radiative forcing due to CO2 is estimated based on fuel consumption. Three alternative routing cases are investigated; one scenario assuming additional polar routes and two scenarios assuming aircraft cruising at higher (+2000 ft) and lower (−6000 ft) altitudes. Results from the base case in year 2000 are included as a reference. Taking first a steady state backward looking approach, adding the changes in the forcing from ozone, CO2 and CH4, the ranges of the models used in this work are −0.8 to −1.8 and 0.3 to 0.6 m Wm−2 in the lower (−6000 ft) and higher (+2000 ft) cruise levels, respectively. In relative terms, flying 6000ft lower reduces the forcing by 5–10% compared to the current flight pattern, whereas flying higher, while saving fuel and presumably flying time, increases the forcing by about 2–3%. Taking next a forward looking approach we have estimated the integrated forcing (m Wm−2 yr) over 20 and 100 years time horizons. The relative contributions from each of the three climate gases are somewhat different from the backward looking approach. The differences are moderate adopting 100 year time horizon, whereas under the 20 year horizon CO2 naturally becomes less important relatively. Thus the forcing agents impact climate differently on various time scales. Also, we have found significant differences between the models for ozone and methane. We conclude that we are not yet at a point where we can include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes. Nevertheless, the rerouting cases that have been studied here yield relatively small changes in the radiative forcing due to the radiatively active gases

Host model uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates: Results from the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study

International audienceSimulated multi-model "diversity" in aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates is often perceived as a measure of aerosol uncertainty. However, current models used for aerosol radiative forcing calculations vary considerably in model components relevant for forcing calculations and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual aerosol uncertainty. In this AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in twelve participating models. Even with prescribed aerosol radiative properties, simulated clear-sky and all-sky aerosol radiative forcings show significant diversity. For a purely scattering case with globally constant optical depth of 0.2, the global-mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is -4.47 Wm-2 and the inter-model standard deviation is 0.55 Wm-2, corresponding to a relative standard deviation of 12 %. For a case with partially absorbing aerosol with an aerosol optical depth of 0.2 and single scattering albedo of 0.8, the forcing changes to 1.04 Wm-2, and the standard deviation increases to 1.01 W-2, corresponding to a significant relative standard deviation of 97 %. However, the top-of-atmosphere forcing variability owing to absorption (subtracting the scattering case from the case with scattering and absorption) is low, with absolute (relative) standard deviations of 0.45 Wm-2 (8 %) clear-sky and 0.62 Wm -2 (11 %) all-sky. Scaling the forcing standard deviation for a purely scattering case to match the sulfate radiative forcing in the AeroCom Direct Effect experiment demonstrates that host model uncertainties could explain about 36 % of the overall sulfate forcing diversity of 0.11 Wm -2 in the AeroCom Direct Radiative Effect experiment. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained surface albedos, such as sea ice. Our results demonstrate that host model uncertainties are an important component of aerosol forcing uncertainty that require further attention. © Author(s) 2013

Extensive release of methane from Arctic seabed west of Svalbard during summer 2014 does not influence the atmosphere

© 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We find that summer methane (CH4) release from seabed sediments west of Svalbard substantially increases CH4 concentrations in the ocean but has limited influence on the atmospheric CH4 levels. Our conclusion stems from complementary measurements at the seafloor, in the ocean, and in the atmosphere from land-based, ship and aircraft platforms during a summer campaign in 2014. We detected high concentrations of dissolved CH4 in the ocean above the seafloor with a sharp decrease above the pycnocline. Model approaches taking potential CH4 emissions from both dissolved and bubble-released CH4 from a larger region into account reveal a maximum flux compatible with the observed atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios of 2.4-3.8 nmol m-2 s-1. This is too low to have an impact on the atmospheric summer CH4 budget in the year 2014. Long-term ocean observatories may shed light on the complex variations of Arctic CH4 cycles throughout the year.The project MOCA- Methane Emissions from the Arctic OCean to the Atmosphere: Present and Future Climate Effects is funded by the Research Council of Norway, grant no.225814 CAGE – Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate research work was supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme grant no. 223259. Nordic Center of Excellence eSTICC (eScience Tool for Investigating Climate Change in northern high latitudes) funded by Nordforsk, grant no. 57001