Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Scenario for a warm, high-CO2 world

Plausible patterns for temperature and precipitation changes accompanying a general global warming, such as might occur due to a large increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, are presented. The patterns are determined by comparing the five warmest years in the period 1925-74 with the five coldest in this period. Temperature increases are indicated for most regions, with maximum warming over northern Asia. A few isolated regions show cooling. Precipitation changes are fairly evenly distributed between increases and decreases; the most important features being an increase over India, and decreases in central and south-central USA and over much of Europe and Russia. The latter decreases, should they occur, could have considerable agricultural impact

Two Isoforms of Yersinia pestis Plasminogen Activator Pla: Intraspecies Distribution, Intrinsic Disorder Propensity, and Contribution to Virulence

It has been shown previously that several endemic Y. pestis isolates with limited virulence contained the I259 isoform of the outer membrane protease Pla, while the epidemic highly virulent strains possessed only the T259 Pla isoform. Our sequence analysis of the pla gene from 118 Y. pestis subsp. microtus strains revealed that the I259 isoform was present exclusively in the endemic strains providing a convictive evidence of more ancestral origin of this isoform. Analysis of the effects of the I259T polymorphism on the intrinsic disorder propensity of Pla revealed that the I259T mutation slightly increases the intrinsic disorder propensity of the C-terminal tail of Pla and makes this protein slightly more prone for disorder-based protein-protein interactions, suggesting that the T259 Pla could be functionally more active than the I259 Pla. This assumption was proven experimentally by assessing the coagulase and fibrinolytic activities of the two Pla isoforms in human plasma, as well as in a direct fluorometric assay with the Pla peptide substrate. The virulence testing of Pla-negative or expressing the I259 and T259 Pla isoforms Y. pestis subsp. microtus and subsp. pestis strains did not reveal any significant difference in LD(50) values and dose-dependent survival assays between them by using a subcutaneous route of challenge of mice and guinea pigs or intradermal challenge of mice. However, a significant decrease in time-to-death was observed in animals infected with the epidemic T259 Pla-producing strains as compared to the parent Pla-negative variants. Survival curves of the endemic I259 Pla(+) strains fit between them, but significant difference in mean time to death post infection between the Pla(−)strains and their I259 Pla(+) variants could be seen only in the isogenic set of subsp. pestis strains. These findings suggest an essential role for the outer membrane protease Pla evolution in Y. pestis bubonic infection exacerbation that is necessary for intensification of epidemic process from endemic natural focality with sporadic cases in men to rapidly expanding epizootics followed by human epidemic outbreaks, local epidemics or even pandemics

The Arctic Coastal Dynamics database. A new classification scheme and statistics on arctic permafrost coastlines

Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447 km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5 m year(-1) with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales

Interactions Between Land Cover/Use Change and Hydrology

The water cycle is a vital component of the North Eurasian environment and plays a central role in the region’s climate, biology, biogeochemistry and in human interactions with the natural environment. The Northern Eurasian arctic drainage covers more than 2/3 of the pan-arctic land mass. Substantial changes in land cover and land use have occurred over the region in recent decades, as a result of changes in climate, permafrost, and water management, among other factors. These changes are likely to affect large-scale linkages between the regional and global climate system, but the nature of these interactions is not well understood. In this chapter, we analyze changes in the dominant hydrological components and explore the interaction of the terrestrial and atmospheric water cycles, with particular attention to key regional cryospheric processes and linkages between the water and carbon cycles. The monitoring of the water cycle from observational networks and remote sensing along with strategies for improving hydrological change detection are discussed in the context of changes in land cover and land use