Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy-induced bias of +/- 0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend

Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing

Abstract: Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulation and dynamics. We analyse a multi-model ensemble of idealized experiments and a set of simulations of the last millennium and we demonstrate similar global signatures and patterns of forced response in the tropical Pacific, of higher sensitivity for the solar forcing. In the idealized simulations, both solar and GHG forcing warm the equatorial Pacific, enhance precipitation in the central Pacific, and weaken and shift the Walker circulation eastward. Centennial variations in the solar forcing over the last millennium cause similar patterns of enhanced equatorial precipitation and slowdown of the Walker circulation in response to periods with stronger solar forcing. Similar forced patterns albeit of considerably weaker magnitude are identified for variations in GHG concentrations over the 20th century, with the lower sensitivity explained by fast atmospheric adjustments. These findings differ from previous studies that have typically suggested divergent responses in tropical precipitation and circulation between the solar and GHG forcings. We conclude that tropical Walker circulation and precipitation might be more susceptible to solar variability rather than GHG variations during the last-millennium, assuming comparable global mean surface temperature changes

Review of the formulation of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings

The goal of the Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) through process‐oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozonedepleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal‐2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry‐climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere‐stratosphere chemistry, and non‐orographic gravity‐wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere

Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry‐climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models

Climate Forcing due to Future Ozone Changes: An intercomparison of metrics and methods

We use Earth system models and a chemistry transport model to determine the radiative forcing due to changes in ozone Three different measures of radiative forcing (instantaneous: IRF, stratospheric-temperature adjusted: SARF, effective: ERF) are compared using both online and offline calculations for the IRF and SARF, and online calculations for the ERF. To isolate the ozone radiative forcing, we configure the model experiments such that only the ozone changes (including respective changes in water vapour, clouds etc.) affect the evolution of the model physics and dynamics. We find robust changes in ozone due to future changes in ozone precursors and ODSs. These lead to a positive radiative forcing of 0.27±0.09 Wm-2 ERF, 0.24 ± 0.021 W m-2 offline SARF, 0.29 ± 0.10 Wm-2 online IRF. Increases in ozone lead to an overall decrease in cloud fraction (although there are increases at some levels). This decrease causes an overall negative adjustment to the radiative forcing (positive in the short-wave (SW), but negative in the long-wave (LW)). Non-cloud adjustments (excluding stratospheric temperature) are positive (both LW and SW). The opposing signs of the cloud and non-cloud adjustments mean the overall adjustment to the SARF is slightly positive. We find general agreement between models in the impact of the ozone changes on temperature and cloud fractions and agreement in the signs of the individual adjustment terms when split into SW and LW. However, the overall difference between the ERF and SARF is smaller than the inter-model variability

The SuperCam Instrument Suite on the Mars 2020 Rover: Science Objectives and Mast-Unit Description

On the NASA 2020 rover mission to Jezero crater, the remote determination of the texture, mineralogy and chemistry of rocks is essential to quickly and thoroughly characterize an area and to optimize the selection of samples for return to Earth. As part of the Perseverance payload, SuperCam is a suite of five techniques that provide critical and complementary observations via Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS), Time-Resolved Raman and Luminescence (TRR/L), visible and near-infrared spectroscopy (VISIR), high-resolution color imaging (RMI), and acoustic recording (MIC). SuperCam operates at remote distances, primarily 2-7 m, while providing data at sub-mm to mm scales. We report on SuperCam's science objectives in the context of the Mars 2020 mission goals and ways the different techniques can address these questions. The instrument is made up of three separate subsystems: the Mast Unit is designed and built in France; the Body Unit is provided by the United States; the calibration target holder is contributed by Spain, and the targets themselves by the entire science team. This publication focuses on the design, development, and tests of the Mast Unit; companion papers describe the other units. The goal of this work is to provide an understanding of the technical choices made, the constraints that were imposed, and ultimately the validated performance of the flight model as it leaves Earth, and it will serve as the foundation for Mars operations and future processing of the data.In France was provided by the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). Human resources were provided in part by the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and universities. Funding was provided in the US by NASA's Mars Exploration Program. Some funding of data analyses at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was provided by laboratory-directed research and development funds

Temporal characterization of short pulses stretched by fiber Bragg gratings

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Assessing California wintertime precipitation responses to various climate drivers

Understanding how drivers of climate change affect precipitation remains an important area of research. Although several robust precipitation responses have been identified under continued increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs), considerable uncertainty remains. This is particularly the case at regional scales, including the West Coast of the United States and California. Here, we exploit idealized, single forcing simulations from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to address how climate drivers impact California wintertime precipitation. Consistent with recent work, GHGs including carbon dioxide and methane, as well as solar forcing, yield a robust increase in California wintertime precipitation. We also find robust California precipitation responses to aerosols but with opposite responses for sulfate versus black carbon aerosol. Sulfate aerosol increases California wintertime precipitation, whereas black carbon reduces it. Moreover, California precipitation is more sensitive to aerosols, particularly regional emissions from Europe and Asia, than to GHGs. These precipitation responses are consistent with shifts in the jet stream and altered moisture fluxes. Although the idealized nature of PDRMIP simulations precludes a formal attribution, our results suggest that aerosols can perturb precipitation and fresh water resources along the West Coast of the United States