Amplification of holocene multicentennial climate forcing by mode transitions in North Atlantic overturning circulation.

Using a three-dimensional global climate model, we show that mode-transitions in North Atlantic deep-water production can provide an amplifying mechanism of relatively weak climate perturbations during the Holocene. Under pre-industrial boundary conditions, a freshwater forcing in the Labrador Sea pushes the North Atlantic overturning circulation into a deterministically bistable regime, characterized by stochastic "on" and "off" switches in Labrador Sea convection. On a multicentennial time-scale these stochastic mode-transitions can be phase-locked by a small (subthreshold) periodic freshwater forcing. The local small periodic forcing is effectively amplified with the assistance of noise, to have a large-scale impact on North Atlantic overturning circulation and climate. These results suggest a stochastic resonance mechanism that can operate under Holocene boundary conditions and indicate that changes in the three-dimensional configuration of North Atlantic deep-water formation can be an important component of multicentennial climate variability during interglacials. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union

Modeling the climate response to a massive methane release from gas hydrates

[1] The climate response to a massive release of methane from gas hydrates is simulated in two 2500-year-long numerical experiments performed with a three-dimensional, global coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean model of intermediate complexity. Two different equilibrium states were used as reference climates; the first state with preindustrial forcing conditions and the second state with a four times higher atmospheric CO2 concentration. These climates were perturbed by prescribing a methane emission scenario equivalent to that computed for the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM; similar to 55.5 Ma), involving a sudden release of 1500 Gt of carbon into the atmosphere in 1000 years. In both cases, this produced rapid atmospheric warming (up to 10°C at high latitudes) and a reorganization of the global overturning ocean circulation. In the ocean, maximum warming (2-4°C) occurred at intermediate depths where methane hydrates are stored in the upper slope sediments, suggesting that further hydrate instability could result from the prescribed scenario

Consumers' preferences for freezing of meat to prevent toxoplasmosis- A stated preference approach.

Consumption of raw or undercooked meat increases the risk of infection with Toxoplasma gondii. Freezing meat products can eliminate this risk. Freezing of meat may affect consumers' valuation of meat products in two different ways: it may be valued positively because of increased food safety or valued negatively because of (perceived) loss of quality. In a Discrete Choice Experiment on four different meat products we studied the difference in willingness to pay for frozen and non-frozen meat products in the Netherlands. Analyses revealed that most Dutch consumer groups prefer non-frozen meat. Price was important in consumer decisions, whereas the meat being frozen appeared to play a minor role in the decision to purchase meat products. Even though it may seem obvious that people would prefer safe food to unsafe food, in a context where consumers presume food being safe, many consumers appear unwilling to pay for freezing of meat as additional measure to reduce the risk of food borne infections such as toxoplasmosis

Risk factors for acute toxoplasmosis in the Netherlands

Toxoplasmosis caused by the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii occurs worldwide. Infections range from asymptomatic to life-threatening. T. gondii infection is acquired either via bradyzoites in meat or via oocysts in the environment, but the relative importance of these path ways and the different sources remains unclear. In this study, possible risk factors for toxoplasmosis in the Netherlands were investigated. A case-control study was conducted including persons with recent infection and individuals with a negative test result for IgM and IgG for T. gondii between July 2016 and April 2021. A total of 48 cases and 50 controls completed the questionnaire. Food history and environmental exposure were compared using logistic regression. Consumption of different meats was found to be associated with recent infection. In the multivariable model, adjusted for age, gender, and pregnancy, consumption of large game meat (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 8.2, 95% confidence interval 1.6-41.9) and sometimes (aOR 4.1, 1.1-15.3) or never (aOR 15.9, 2.2-115.5) washing hands before food preparation remained. These results emphasize the value of the advice to be careful with the consumption of raw and undercooked meat. Good hand hygiene could also be promoted in the prevention of T. gondii infection.</p

A social cost-benefit analysis of two One Health interventions to prevent toxoplasmosis

In the Netherlands, toxoplasmosis ranks second in disease burden among foodborne pathogens with an estimated health loss of 1,900 Disability Adjusted Life Years and a cost-of-illness estimated at €45 million annually. Therefore, effective and preferably cost-effective preventive interventions are warranted. Freezing meat intended for raw or undercooked consumption and improving biosecurity in pig farms are promising interventions to prevent Toxoplasma gondii infections in humans. Putting these interventions into practice would expectedly reduce the number of infections; however, the net benefits for society are unknown. Stakeholders bearing the costs for these interventions will not necessary coincide with the ones having the benefits. We performed a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis to evaluate the net value of two potential interventions for the Dutch society. We assessed the costs and benefits of the two interventions and compared them with the current practice of education, especially during pregnancy. A ‘minimum scenario’ and a ‘maximum scenario’ was assumed, using input parameters with least benefits to society and input parameters with most benefits to society, respectively. For both interventions, we performed different scenario analyses. The freezing meat intervention was far more effective than the biosecurity intervention. Despite high freezing costs, freezing two meat products: steak tartare and mutton leg yielded net social benefits in both the minimum and maximum scenario, ranging from €10.6 million to €31 million for steak tartare and €0.6 million to €1.5 million for mutton leg. The biosecurity intervention would result in net costs in all scenarios ranging from €1 million to €2.5 million, due to high intervention costs and limited benefits. From a public health perspective (i.e. reducing the burden of toxoplasmosis) and the societal perspective (i.e. a net benefit for the Dutch society) freezing steak tartare and leg of mutton is to be considered

The relationship between the presence of antibodies and direct detection of Toxoplasma gondii in slaughtered calves and cattle in four European countries

In cattle, antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii infection are frequently detected, but evidence for the presence of T. gondii tissue cysts in cattle is limited. To study the concordance between the presence of anti-T. gondii IgG and viable tissue cysts of T. gondii in cattle, serum, liver and diaphragm samples of 167 veal calves and 235 adult cattle were collected in Italy, the Netherlands, Romania and the United Kingdom. Serum samples were tested for anti-T. gondii IgG by the modified agglutination test and p30 immunoblot. Samples from liver were analyzed by mouse bioassay and PCR after trypsin digestion. In addition, all diaphragms of cattle that had tested T. gondii-positive (either in bioassay, by PCR on trypsin-digested liver or serologically by MAT) and a selection of diaphragms from cattle that had tested negative were analyzed by magnetic capture quantitative PCR (MC-PCR). Overall, 13 animals were considered positive by a direct detection method: seven out of 151 (4.6%) by MC-PCR and six out of 385 (1.6%) by bioassay, indicating the presence of viable parasites. As cattle that tested positive in the bioassay tested negative by MC-PCR and vice-versa, these results demonstrate a lack of concordance between the presence of viable parasites in liver and the detection of T. gondii DNA in diaphragm. In addition, the probability to detect T. gondii parasites or DNA in seropositive and seronegative cattle was comparable, demonstrating that serological testing by MAT or p30 immunoblot does not provide information about the presence of T. gondii parasites or DNA in cattle and therefore is not a reliable indicator of the risk for consumers

Age-Related Toxoplasma gondii Seroprevalence in Dutch Wild Boar Inconsistent with Lifelong Persistence of Antibodies

Toxoplasma gondii is an important zoonotic pathogen that is best known as a cause of abortion or abnormalities in the newborn after primary infection during pregnancy. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of T. gondii in wild boar to investigate the possible role of their meat in human infection and to get an indication of the environmental contamination with T. gondii. The presence of anti-T. gondii antibodies was determined by in-house ELISA in 509 wild boar shot in 2002/2003 and 464 wild boar shot in 2007. Most of the boar originated from the “Roerstreek” (n = 673) or the “Veluwe” (n = 241). A binormal mixture model was fitted to the log-transformed optical density values for wild boar up to 20 months old to estimate the optimal cut-off value (−0.685) and accompanying sensitivity (90.6%) and specificity (93.6%). The overall seroprevalence was estimated at 24.4% (95% CI: 21.1–27.7%). The prevalence did not show variation between sampling years or regions, indicating a stable and homogeneous infection pressure from the environment. The relation between age and seroprevalence was studied in two stages. Firstly, seroprevalence by age group was determined by fitting the binary mixture model to 200 animals per age category. The prevalence showed a steep increase until approximately 10 months of age but stabilized at approximately 35% thereafter. Secondly, we fitted the age-dependent seroprevalence data to several SIR-type models, with seropositives as infected (I) and seronegatives as either susceptible (S) or resistant (R). A model with a recovery rate (SIS) was superior to a model without a recovery rate (SI). This finding is not consistent with the traditional view of lifelong persistence of T. gondii infections. The high seroprevalence suggests that eating undercooked wild boar meat may pose a risk of infection with T. gondii

Influence of Efforts of Employer and Employee on Return-to-Work Process and Outcomes

Background Research on disability and RTW outcome has led to significant advances in understanding these outcomes, however, limited studies focus on measuring the RTW process. After a prolonged period of sickness absence, the assessment of the RTW process by investigating RTW Effort Sufficiency (RTW-ES) is essential. However, little is known about factors influencing RTW-ES. Also, the correspondence in factors determining RTW-ES and RTW is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate 1) the strength and relevance of factors related to RTW-ES and RTW (no/partial RTW), and 2) the comparability of factors associated with RTW-ES and with RTW. Methods During 4 months, all assessments of RTW-ES and RTW (no/partial RTW) among employees applying for disability benefits after 2 years of sickness absence, performed by labor experts at 3 Dutch Social Insurance Institute locations, were investigated by means of a questionnaire. Results Questionnaires concerning 415 cases were available. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, the only factor related to RTW-ES is a good employer-employee relationship. Factors related to RTW (no/partial RTW) were found to be high education, no previous periods of complete disability and a good employer-employee relationship. Conclusions Different factors are relevant to RTW-ES and RTW, but the employer-employee relationship is relevant for both. Considering the importance of the assessment of RTW-ES after a prolonged period of sickness absence among employees who are not fully disabled, this knowledge is essential for the assessment of RTW-ES and the RTW process itself

Climate feedbacks induced by the North Atlantic freshwater forcing in a coupled model of intermediate complexity

Based on coupled model simulations (ECBilt-Clio), we investigate the atmospheric and oceanic response to sustained freshwater input into the North Atlantic under the glacial maximum background state. The results demonstrate that a weakening of the thermohaline circulation triggered by weaker density flux leads to rapid changes in global sea-ice volume and reduced poleward heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), however, the oceanic heat transport increases substantially. This in turn leads to strong cooling over the North Atlantic whereas the SH extratropical region warms up. The suppression of the NADW also drastically changes the atmospheric circulation. The associated northward wind anomalies over the North Atlantic increase the warm air advection from the tropics and induce the transport of tropical saltier water to mid-latitudes. This negative atmospheric-oceanic feedback should play an important role to resume the NADW, after the freshwater forcing ends up.Baseado em simulações numéricas realizadas com um modelo acoplado (ECBilt-Clio), investigam-se as anomalias atmosféricas e oceânicas associadas ao aumento de água doce no Atlântico Norte sob condições glaciais. Os resultados demonstram que um enfraquecimento da corrente termohalina provoca rápidas mudanças no volume global de gelo marinho, bem como uma redução no transporte de calor em direção ao Hemisfério Norte (HN). No Hemisfério Sul (HS), no entanto, o transporte oceânico de calor aumenta substancialmente. Como resultado, ocorre um forte esfriamento ao longo do Atlântico Norte, enquanto que a região extratropical do HS aquece. A inibição da circulação termohalina também muda drasticamente a circulação atmosférica. Intensas anomalias de ventos da região equatorial induzem um transport de águas quentes e salinas, assim como são associadas com um aumento na advecção de ar quente dos trópicos. Esta interação oceano-atmosfera opõe-se à tendência climática inicial imposta pelo aumento de água doce no Atlântico Norte