Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates

“Support” and “resistance” levels—points at which an exchange rate trend may be interrupted and reversed—are widely used for short-term exchange rate forecasting. Nevertheless, the levels’ ability to predict intraday trend interruptions has never been rigorously evaluated. This article undertakes such an analysis, using support and resistance levels provided to customers by six firms active in the foreign exchange market. The author offers strong evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend interruptions. However, the levels’ predictive power is found to vary across the exchange rates and firms examined.Foreign exchange rates ; Forecasting

Engineering affect: emotion regulation, the internet, and the techno-social niche

Philosophical work exploring the relation between cognition and the Internet is now an active area of research. Some adopt an externalist framework, arguing that the Internet should be seen as environmental scaffolding that drives and shapes cognition. However, despite growing interest in this topic, little attention has been paid to how the Internet influences our affective life — our moods, emotions, and our ability to regulate these and other feeling states. We argue that the Internet scaffolds not only cognition but also affect. Using various case studies, we consider some ways that we are increasingly dependent on our Internet-enabled “techno-social niches” to regulate the contours of our own affective life and participate in the affective lives of others. We argue further that, unlike many of the other environmental resources we use to regulate affect, the Internet has distinct properties that introduce new dimensions of complexity to these regulative processes. First, it is radically social in a way many of these other resources are not. Second, it is a radically distributed and decentralized resource; no one individual or agent is responsible for the Internet’s content or its affective impact on users. Accordingly, while the Internet can profoundly augment and enrich our affective life and deepen our connection with others, there is also a distinctive kind of affective precarity built into our online endeavors as well

Education for Democratic Citizenship: a review of research, policy and practice 1995-2005

This paper provides a synthesis of the scholarly literature on education for democratic citizenship (EDC) in the school sector in England since 1995. Following the publication of the Crick Report (QCA, 1998), citizenship education was introduced to secondary schools in 2002 as a statutory subject. Primary schools are also required to show, through inspection, how they are preparing learners for citizenship. The implementation of citizenship as a national curriculum subject in England is taking place during a period of constitutional reform and was the most significant innovation of curriculum 2000. Recent parallel initiatives in EDC are taking place elsewhere in the UK, in Europe and internationally. In both established democracies and newlyestablished democratic states, such as those of Eastern and Central Europe and Latin America, there is a recognition that democracy is essentially fragile and that it depends on the active engagement of citizens, not just in voting, but in developing and participating in sustainable and cohesive communities. The paper examines the role of EDC in responding to these political challenges, setting national policy developments in both European and international contexts and exploring the growing international consensus on human rights as the underpinning principles of EDC. It identifies some key themes within the research, such as diversity and unity; global and cosmopolitan citizenship; children as citizens; democratic schooling; students’ understandings of citizenship and democracy; the complementary roles of schools and communities; European citizenship; and the practicalities of implementing EDC at school level. It identifies some gaps in the research literature and concludes by proposing an on-going agenda for research

Policy review of teacher education in Northern Ireland

"This report is written as background for departmental officials and assumes, therefore, familiarity with the issues. Its purpose is to consider the aims, objectives and policies on which the current model of teacher education (initial, induction, early professional development, continuing professional development) in Northern Ireland is based, and to offer an opinion on how well current provision fits these, identifying gaps as necessary." - page 3

Overconfidence in Currency Markets

This paper tests the influential hypothesis, typically attributed to Friedman (1953), that irrational traders will be driven out of financial markets by trading losses. The paper’s main finding is that overconfident currency dealers are not driven out of the market. Traders with extensive experience are neither more nor less overconfident than their inexperienced colleagues. We first provide evidence that currency dealers are indeed overconfident, which is notable since they get daily trading practice and face intense financial incentives to accuracy.Overconfidence, imperfect rationality, currency dealers, survival of imperfect rationality

Extreme Returns without News: A Microstructural Explanation

What triggers extreme exchange-rate returns? Though news is the source of volatility in standard theoretical models, in reality volatility is often unrelated to news. This paper shows that extreme exchange-rate returns -- and, more generally, high kurtosis of returns -- are statistically inevitable even in the absence of news. We identify four microstructural sources of return kurtosis in price-contingent order flow: (1) high kurtosis in the distribution of price-contingent order sizes; (2) clustering of price-contingent order executions at certain times of day; (3) clustering of order executions at certain price levels; and (4) the tendency of positive-feedback trading to propagate trends. Using simulations calibrated to price-contingent orders placed at a major foreign exchange dealing bank we show that when each factor operates in isolation, the one that contributes most to kurtosis in returns is kurtosis in the order-size distribution. When the factors operate simultaneously, however, their interactions prove far more important. Extreme returns in the absence of news should be viewed as natural rather than anomalous.kurtosis, exchange rates, order flow, high-frequency, microstructure, jump process, value-atrisk, risk management

Human rights and public education

This article attempts a contrast to the contribution by Hugh Starkey. Rather than his account of the inexorable rise of human rights discourse, and of the implementation of human rights standards, human rights are here presented as always and necessarily scandalous and highly contested. First, I explain why the UK has lagged so far behind its European neighbours in implementing citizenship education. Second, a comparison with France shows that the latest UK reforms bring us up to 1789. Third, the twentieth-century second-generation social and economic rights are still anathema in the UK. Fourth, the failure to come to terms with Empire and especially the slave trade means that the UK’s attitude to third-generation rights, especially the right of peoples to self-determination, is heavily compromised. Taking into account the points I raise, citizenship education in the UK might look very different