Electricity Consumption, Institutions and Economic Growth in Nigeria: What Does Evidence Say So Far?

This study applies bound test approach to VAR to investigate the long-run and short run relationship between institutional quality, electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria based on annual data for the period 1980-2011. In the first step, we examine the degree of integration between all the variables and find that the variables are mixture of order of integration. In the second step, we investigate the long-run relationship between institutions, electricity consumption and economic growth; the results based on the bounds testing procedure reveal that there exists co integration among the variables used in the model. In the third step, we estimate the long run and short run relationship and test for causality using ARDL and Wald test approach and find a positive direct relationship between institutions, electricity consumption and economic growth. The result of granger non causality test support the existence of both short run and long-run bidirectional relationship between GDP and electricity consumption and a unidirectional causality running from institutions to economic growth. Further, our analyses reveal that causation runs from institutions to electricity consumption and vice versa in both period. Implying policy makers should adopt policies that can ensure total overhauling of our institutions capable of  driving  investment in infrastructures as well as  reorientation of the individuals in term of altitudes, trust, respect for rule of law and accountability, thereby encourage long-term contract, lower risk of doing business and improve human capital that is necessary for growth. Key words: Institutions, Electricity consumption, Co integration, Growth, Granger causalit

Does Volatility in Crude Oil Price Precipitate Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria?

This study examines the effects of crude oil price changes on economic activity in an oil dependent economy-Nigeria. A small open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) technique is employed to study the macroeconomic dynamics of domestic price level, economic output, money supply and oil price in Nigeria. The sample covers the data from 1985:q1 to 2010:q4. The Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs) results suggest that domestic policies, instead of oil-boom should be blamed for inflation. Also, oil price variations are driven mostly by oil shocks, however, domestic shocks are responsible for a reasonable portion of oil price variations.    Keywords: Oil price; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Inflation; Nigeria JEL Classifications: E31; E52; E6

Trade liberalisation, economic growth and poverty level in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

This paper explores the relationship among trade openness, economic growth and poverty level in 40 sub-Saharan Africa countries from 1990 to 2017. Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Panel Vector Auto-regression (VAR) and the System of Generalised Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) were employed. A robustness test was also applied. The sensitivity analysis was done through the Panel ARDL model. The results revealed that trade openness, foreign direct investment and institutional quality significantly increase economic growth in the long term, while institutional quality reduces economic growth in the short run. Furthermore, trade liberalisation, institutional quality and population growth rate lead to poverty reduction in the long run, while trade openness has adverse effects in the short run. Moreover, poverty does not have a significant response to trade and growth shocks. Poverty presented a positive change but the level was not significant. The Pairwise Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality results highlight feedback effects among trade, economic growth and poverty level in the region. Based on these findings, the study recommends that governments in Africa should reviewed their poverty reduction programmes in order to move towards achieving the sustainable development goals

Financial Inclusion and Investment in Nigeria

This study examines the relationship between financial inclusion and investment in Nigeria. Many studies have focused on examining the relationship between financial inclusion andeconomic growth, however, economic growth cannot be achieved without sustainable investment guaranteed by financial inclusion. This study thus seeks to bridge this gap and fill the lacuna. Annual time series data was obtained from the CBN statistical bulletin and for the period 1981-2015. The study makes use of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration testand error correction model. The outcomes of the study show that not all the three criteria for financial inclusion (availability, accessibility and affordability) guarantee investment in the Nigerian economy. This study recommends that private individuals should have uncomplicated access to credit and fair distribution of commercial banks in the rural setting of the state

The Impact of Non-oil Export on Domestic Investment in Nigeria

The study explores the relationship between non-oil export and domestic investment in Nigeria. Relevant data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin between 1980 and 2011. The error correction model was estimated in determining how non-oil export impacts domestic investment and the granger causality test was conducted to determine the causal relationship among the variables. The findings revealed that the impact of non-oil export on domestic investment was positive but insignificant. The insignificance is as a result of the mono-cultural nature of production skewed towards the oil sector, although the positive coefficient shows that a lot of prospects still exist in the sector. Also, the findings show that while domestic investment granger causes non-oil export, nonoil export did not granger cause domestic investment. Hence, the study the recommended that effort must be made at formulating explicit export promotion policies that will encourage the growth of the non-oil sector in order to make them more viable at generating export earnings for the country and also boost their contribution the level of domestic investments in the country

Fragility and macroeconomic outcomes in ECOWAS

Abctract. This study examined the nature of the interactions between fragility and macroeconomic outcomes in ECOWAS. This is despite the backdrop of evidences showing that macroeconomic policies sufficiently drive macroeconomic outcomes. Meanwhile sub-Saharan African countries have taken the backbench on almost any standard measures of macroeconomic performance within the last two decades. Contemporaneously, the region dominates the top 50 percentiles of ranking on almost all dimension and indicators of fragility.  Using a panel data for the 15 countries covering the period between 1995-2016 and employing the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) estimation techniques, the findings from this work show that the seven macroeconomic outcomes used in the study respond to fragility negatively and that fragility accounts for major sources of shocks in these economies. The study recommends that ECOWAS should employ a formidable approach to blocking this distortion called fragility.Keywords. Panel VAR, Shocks, Resource Curse, Sub-Saharan Africa, ECOWAS.JEL. F41, I31, O11

Are women financially excluded from formal financial services? Analysis of some selected local government areas in Lagos State, Nigeria

Abstract. The preoccupation of this study is to investigate whether women are financially excluded from formal financial services in Lagos State. Four local government areas (Ikeja, Ifako- Ijaiye, Somolu-Bariga and Agege) were selected for the empirical enquiry. Perceptions of women about formal financial services were collected by means of questionnaires. Of the 280 questionnaires sent out, 202 were recovered and the data was analyzed using descriptive analyses techniques. Two major findings are reported:(i) women are excluded from financial services mostly because of their lower level of education which thus exclude them from being able to utilize financial products such as mobile and internet banking; and (ii)the older the respondents get, the lower their willingness to make use of internet or mobile banking, as the emergence of new products in that line is too sophisticated for them to understand, thus, they experience technical exclusion from financial services. The study recommends that: (i) there is need for specialized financial product for women and increased awareness of beneficial products by the financial institutions; and (ii) financial institutions should design specialized financial products for women and to embark on road-shows in markets where women are mostly aggregated in order to create efficient awareness of these financial products.Keywords. Financial services, Financial exclusion, Financial institution, Nigeria.JEL. G21, O40

Does Oil Price Volatility Matter for Asian Emerging Economies?

This article investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies in Asia using time-series cross-section and time-series econometric techniques. To assess the robustness of the findings, we further implement such heterogeneous panel data estimation methods as Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators to allow for cross-sectional dependence. The empirical results reveal that oil price volatility has a detrimental effect on these emerging economies. In the short run, oil price volatility influenced output growth in China and affected both GDP growth and inflation in India. In the Philippines, oil price volatility impacted on inflation, but in Indonesia, it impacted on both GDP growth and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia, oil price volatility impacted on GDP growth, although there is notably little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility influenced output growth prior to the Asian financial crisis, but the impact disappeared after the crisis. It appears that oil subsidization by the Thai Government via introduction of the oil fund played a significant role in improving the economic performance by lessening the adverse effects of oil price volatility on macroeconomic indicators

DOES VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL PRICE PRECIPITATE MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA?

This study examines the effects of crude oil price changes on economic activity in an oil dependent economy-Nigeria. A small open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) technique is employed to study the macroeconomic dynamics of domestic price level, economic output, money supply and oil price in Nigeria. The sample covers the data from 1985:q1 to 2010:q4. The Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs) results suggest that domestic policies, instead of oil-boom should be blamed for inflation. Also, oil price variations are driven mostly by oil shocks, however, domestic shocks are responsible for a reasonable portion of oil price variations