Calendaricities and multimodality in the Eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity

Calendaricities, or the occurrence of weather anomalies on fixed calendar dates, are investigated for the Eastern Mediterranean (EM). The anomalies discussed here are the maxima and minima in the frequency of occurrence of the EM synoptic systems bearing rainfall. Those are mostly the Winter Lows passing over Cyprus en route eastward of the Ionian Sea where they are generated in situ or come to from N. Italy. The Winter Lows produce the rainfall over the central and northern EM areas, including Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon, NW Syria, W. Jordan. The southern EM areas, i.e. S. Israel and NE Egypt, get rainfall followed by floods due to the Winter Lows as well, and in addition, due to a small proportion of the mostly dry Red Sea Troughs that occasionally turn out to cause heavy rainfall. The analysis of the daily resolved data based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is carried out. A comparison of two 28-yr periods, 1948–1975 and 1976–2003, different in global climatology, showed their similarity in the timing of peaks in EM cyclonic activity. The winter was found to have five maxima of cyclonic activity, centered on early February and nearly bell-shaped over their magnitudes. This supports the earlier hypotheses of multimodality in the EM rainfall. The Red Sea Troughs have their main peak of occurrence in the late October – early November, and their small rain-bearing proportion falls as well on this period of a year

A southeastern Mediterranean PV streamer and its role in December 2001 case with torrential rains in Israel

A precipitation event of unprecedented intensity took place over northern part of Israel during 4 December 2001–5 December 2001. The case was associated with formation of a Cyprus Low cyclone over the Asia Minor. In the current study the synoptic developments over the eastern part of the Mediterranean region are simulated with the MM5 nonhydrostatic model and analyzed based on dynamic tropopause patterns calculated from the simulation results. According to the results, a powerful potential vorticity (PV) streamer system played a major role in the process over the southeastern Mediterranean region. The PV streamer created conditions for seclusion of moist air masses from the equatorial East Africa and Atlantics during the cyclone development. Condensation of the moisture, associated with the latent heat release processes have contributed to the intense thunderstorm activity and heavy precipitation of the event

The surface climatology of the eastern Mediterranean region obtained in a three-member ensemble climate change simulation experiment

International audienceTwo configurations of RegCM3 regional climate model (RCM) have been used to downscale results of two atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations of the current (1961?1990) and future climates (2071?2100) over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region. The RCM domain covering the EM region from northern Africa to central part of Asia Minor with grid spacing of 50 km was used. Three sets of RCM simulations were completed. Results of the RCM experiment support earlier projections of a temperature (annual precipitation) increase (decrease) to the end of 21st century over the EM. The roles of several major factors in controlling uncertainty of the climate change estimates are evaluated. The main uncertainty factors appear to be associated with possible inadequacies in RCM description of the EM-climate-controlling developments over remotely located areas as well as those in the simulations of the global climate and its trends by the AOGCMs

Development of a daily gridded precipitation data set for the Middle East

We show an algorithm to construct a rain-gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation for the Middle East. One of the key points of our algorithm is to construct an accurate distribution of climatology. One possible advantage of this product is to validate high-resolution climate models and/or to diagnose the impact of climate changes on local hydrological resources. Many users are familiar with a monthly precipitation dataset (New et al., 1999) and a satellite-based daily precipitation dataset (Huffman et al., 2001), yet our data set, unlike theirs, clearly shows the effect of orography on daily precipitation and other extreme events, especially over the Fertile Crescent region. Currently the Middle-East precipitation analysis product is consisting of a 25-year data set for 1979–2003 based on more than 1300 stations

Technical Note: Novel method for water vapor monitoring using wireless communication networks measurements

International audienceWe propose a new technique that overcomes the obstacles of the existing methods for monitoring near-surface water vapor, by estimating humidity from data collected through existing wireless communication networks. Weather conditions and atmospheric phenomena affect the electromagnetic channel, causing attenuations to the radio signals. Thus, wireless communication networks are in effect built-in environmental monitoring facilities. The wireless microwave links, used in these networks, are widely deployed by cellular providers for backhaul communication between base stations, a few tens of meters above ground level. As a result, the proposed method can provide moisture observations at high temporal and spatial resolution. Further, the implementation cost is minimal, since the data used are already collected and saved by the cellular operators. In addition ? many of these links are installed in areas where access is difficult such as orographic terrain and complex topography. As such, our method enables measurements in places that have been hard to measure in the past, or have never been measured before. We present results from real-data measurements taken from two microwave links used in a backhaul cellular network that show excellent correlation to surface station humidity measurements. The measurements were taken daily in two sites, one in northern Israel (28 measurements), the other in central Israel (29 measurements).The correlation of the microwave link measurements to those of the humidity gauges were 0.9 and 0.82 for the north and central sites, respectively. The RMSE were 20.8% and 33.1% for the northern and central site measurements, respectively

Prediction of rainfall intensity measurement errors using commercial microwave communication links

Commercial microwave radio links forming cellular communication networks are known to be a valuable instrument for measuring near-surface rainfall. However, operational communication links are more uncertain relatively to the dedicated installations since their geometry and frequencies are optimized for high communication performance rather than observing rainfall. Quantification of the uncertainties for measurements that are non-optimal in the first place is essential to assure usability of the data. <br><br> In this work we address modeling of instrumental impairments, i.e. signal variability due to antenna wetting, baseline attenuation uncertainty and digital quantization, as well as environmental ones, i.e. variability of drop size distribution along a link affecting accuracy of path-averaged rainfall measurement and spatial variability of rainfall in the link's neighborhood affecting the accuracy of rainfall estimation out of the link path. Expressions for root mean squared error (RMSE) for estimates of path-averaged and point rainfall have been derived. To verify the RMSE expressions quantitatively, path-averaged measurements from 21 operational communication links in 12 different locations have been compared to records of five nearby rain gauges over three rainstorm events. <br><br> The experiments show that the prediction accuracy is above 90% for temporal accumulation less than 30 min and lowers for longer accumulation intervals. Spatial variability in the vicinity of the link, baseline attenuation uncertainty and, possibly, suboptimality of wet antenna attenuation model are the major sources of link-gauge discrepancies. In addition, the dependence of the optimal coefficients of a conventional wet antenna attenuation model on spatial rainfall variability and, accordingly, link length has been shown. <br><br> The expressions for RMSE of the path-averaged rainfall estimates can be useful for integration of measurements from multiple heterogeneous links into data assimilation algorithms

Ice nucleation from aqueous NaCl droplets with and without marine diatoms

Ice formation in the atmosphere by homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation is one of the least understood processes in cloud microphysics and climate. Here we describe our investigation of the marine environment as a potential source of atmospheric IN by experimentally observing homogeneous ice nucleation from aqueous NaCl droplets and comparing against heterogeneous ice nucleation from aqueous NaCl droplets containing intact and fragmented diatoms. Homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation are studied as a function of temperature and water activity, <i>a</i><sub>w</sub>. Additional analyses are presented on the dependence of diatom surface area and aqueous volume on heterogeneous freezing temperatures, ice nucleation rates, ω<sub>het</sub>, ice nucleation rate coefficients, <i>J</i><sub>het</sub>, and differential and cumulative ice nuclei spectra, <i>k(T)</i> and <i>K(T)</i>, respectively. Homogeneous freezing temperatures and corresponding nucleation rate coefficients are in agreement with the water activity based homogeneous ice nucleation theory within experimental and predictive uncertainties. Our results confirm, as predicted by classical nucleation theory, that a stochastic interpretation can be used to describe the homogeneous ice nucleation process. Heterogeneous ice nucleation initiated by intact and fragmented diatoms can be adequately represented by a modified water activity based ice nucleation theory. A horizontal shift in water activity, Δ<i>a</i><sub>w, het</sub> = 0.2303, of the ice melting curve can describe median heterogeneous freezing temperatures. Individual freezing temperatures showed no dependence on available diatom surface area and aqueous volume. Determined at median diatom freezing temperatures for <i>a</i><sub>w</sub> from 0.8 to 0.99, ω<sub>het</sub><u>~</u>0.11<sup>+0.06</sup><sub>−0.05</sub> s<sup>−1</sup>, <i>J</i><sub>het</sub><u>~</u>1.0<sup>+1.16</sup><sub>−0.61</sub>×10<sup>4</sup> cm<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>, and <i>K</i><u>~</u>6.2<sup>+3.5</sup><sub>−4.1</sub> ×10<sup>4</sup> cm<sup>−2</sup>. The experimentally derived ice nucleation rates and nuclei spectra allow us to estimate ice particle production which we subsequently use for a comparison with observed ice crystal concentrations typically found in cirrus and polar marine mixed-phase clouds. Differences in application of time-dependent and time-independent analyses to predict ice particle production are discussed

Localization of adaptive variants in human genomes using averaged one-dependence estimation.

Statistical methods for identifying adaptive mutations from population genetic data face several obstacles: assessing the significance of genomic outliers, integrating correlated measures of selection into one analytic framework, and distinguishing adaptive variants from hitchhiking neutral variants. Here, we introduce SWIF(r), a probabilistic method that detects selective sweeps by learning the distributions of multiple selection statistics under different evolutionary scenarios and calculating the posterior probability of a sweep at each genomic site. SWIF(r) is trained using simulations from a user-specified demographic model and explicitly models the joint distributions of selection statistics, thereby increasing its power to both identify regions undergoing sweeps and localize adaptive mutations. Using array and exome data from 45 ‡Khomani San hunter-gatherers of southern Africa, we identify an enrichment of adaptive signals in genes associated with metabolism and obesity. SWIF(r) provides a transparent probabilistic framework for localizing beneficial mutations that is extensible to a variety of evolutionary scenarios

Grid-Obstacle Representations with Connections to Staircase Guarding

In this paper, we study grid-obstacle representations of graphs where we assign grid-points to vertices and define obstacles such that an edge exists if and only if an $xy$-monotone grid path connects the two endpoints without hitting an obstacle or another vertex. It was previously argued that all planar graphs have a grid-obstacle representation in 2D, and all graphs have a grid-obstacle representation in 3D. In this paper, we show that such constructions are possible with significantly smaller grid-size than previously achieved. Then we study the variant where vertices are not blocking, and show that then grid-obstacle representations exist for bipartite graphs. The latter has applications in so-called staircase guarding of orthogonal polygons; using our grid-obstacle representations, we show that staircase guarding is \textsc{NP}-hard in 2D.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the 25th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2017