Extensions and applications of a second-order landsurface parameterization

Extensions and applications of a second order land surface parameterization, proposed by Andreou and Eagleson are developed. Procedures for evaluating the near surface storage depth used in one cell land surface parameterizations are suggested and tested by using the model. Sensitivity analysis to the key soil parameters is performed. A case study involving comparison with an "exact" numerical model and another simplified parameterization, under very dry climatic conditions and for two different soil types, is also incorporated

A second-order Budkyo-type parameterization of landsurface hydrology

A simple, second order parameterization of the water fluxes at a land surface for use as the appropriate boundary condition in general circulation models of the global atmosphere was developed. The derived parameterization incorporates the high nonlinearities in the relationship between the near surface soil moisture and the evaporation, runoff and percolation fluxes. Based on the one dimensional statistical dynamic derivation of the annual water balance, it makes the transition to short term prediction of the moisture fluxes, through a Taylor expansion around the average annual soil moisture. A comparison of the suggested parameterization is made with other existing techniques and available measurements. A thermodynamic coupling is applied in order to obtain estimations of the surface ground temperature

Structural Change in (Economic) Time Series

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. Several recent methods for dating structural changes are compared using a time series of oil prices spanning more than 60 years. The methods broadly agree for the first part of the series up to the mid-1980s, for which changes are associated with major historical events, but provide somewhat different solutions thereafter, reflecting a gradual increase in oil prices that is not well described by a step function. As a further illustration, 1990s data on the volatility of the Hang Seng stock market index are reanalyzed.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Trapping for invasive crayfish: comparisons of efficacy and selectivity of baited traps versus novel artificial refuge traps.

Non-native crayfish can dominate the invertebrate biomass of invaded freshwaters, with their high ecological impacts resulting in their populations being controlled by numerous methods, especially trapping. Although baited funnel traps (BTs) are commonly used, they tend to be selective in mainly catching large-bodied males. Here, the efficacy and selectivity of BTs were tested against an alternative trapping method based on artificial refuges (ARTs) that comprised of a metal base with several tubes (refuges) attached. The target species was signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus in an upland river in southwest England. Trapping was completed in April to October over two consecutive years. In total, 5,897 crayfish were captured, with 87 % captured in ARTs. Comparison of the CPUE between the trapping methods in the same 24 hour periods revealed significantly higher CPUE in ARTs than of BTs. ARTs fished for 6 consecutive days had higher catches than both methods over 24 hours. Whilst catches in BTs were significantly dominated by males (1.49M:1F), the sex ratio of catches in ARTs was 0.99M:1F. The mean carapace length of crayfish was also significantly larger in BTs (43.2 ± 0.6 mm) than in ARTs (33.6 ± 0.2 mm). Thus, ARTs had higher CPUE over 24 hour and 6 day periods versus BTs and also captured a greater proportion of smaller and female individuals. These results indicate that when trapping methods are deployed for managing invasions, the use of ARTs removes substantial numbers of crayfish of both sexes and of varying body sizes

Phylogenetic and environmental DNA insights into emerging aquatic parasites: implications for risk management.

Species translocation leads to disease emergence in native species of considerable economic importance. Generalist parasites are more likely to be transported, become established and infect new hosts, thus their risk needs to be evaluated. Freshwater systems are particularly at risk from parasite introductions due to the frequency of fish movements, lack of international legislative controls for non-listed pathogens and inherent difficulties with monitoring disease introductions in wild fish populations. Here we used one of the world's most invasive freshwater fish, the topmouth gudgeon, Pseudorasbora parva, to demonstrate the risk posed by an emergent generalist parasite, Sphaerothecum destruens. Pseudorasbora parva has spread to 32 countries from its native range in China through the aquaculture trade and has introduced S. destruens to at least five of these. We systematically investigated the spread of S. destruens through Great Britain and its establishment in native fish communities through a combination of phylogenetic studies of the host and parasite and a novel environmental DNA detection assay. Molecular approaches confirmed that S. destruens is present in 50% of the P. parva communities tested and was also detected in resident native fish communities but in the absence of notable histopathological changes. We identified specific P. parva haplotypes associated with S. destruens and evaluated the risk of disease emergence from this cryptic fish parasite. We provide a framework that can be applied to any aquatic pathogen to enhance detection and help mitigate future disease risks in wild fish populations

Neo-Aristotelian Naturalism and the Evolutionary Objection: Rethinking the Relevance of Empirical Science

Neo-Aristotelian metaethical naturalism is a modern attempt at naturalizing ethics using ideas from Aristotle’s teleological metaphysics. Proponents of this view argue that moral virtue in human beings is an instance of natural goodness, a kind of goodness supposedly also found in the realm of non-human living things. Many critics question whether neo-Aristotelian naturalism is tenable in light of modern evolutionary biology. Two influential lines of objection have appealed to an evolutionary understanding of human nature and natural teleology to argue against this view. In this paper, I offer a reconstruction of these two seemingly different lines of objection as raising instances of the same dilemma, giving neo-Aristotelians a choice between contradicting our considered moral judgment and abandoning metaethical naturalism. I argue that resolving the dilemma requires showing a particular kind of continuity between the norms of moral virtue and norms that are necessary for understanding non-human living things. I also argue that in order to show such a continuity, neo-Aristotelians need to revise the relationship they adopt with empirical science and acknowledge that the latter is relevant to assessing their central commitments regarding living things. Finally, I argue that to move this debate forward, both neo-Aristotelians and their critics should pay attention to recent work on the concept of organism in evolutionary and developmental biology

Effects of market default risk on index option risk-neutral moments

We investigate the relative importance of market default risk in explaining the time variation of the S&P 500 Index option-implied risk-neutral moments. The results demonstrate that market default risk is positively (negatively) related to the index risk-neutral volatility and skewness (kurtosis). These relations are robust in the presence of other factors relevant to the dynamics and microstructure nature of the spot and option markets. Overall, this study sheds light on a set of economic determinants which help to understand the daily evolution of the S&P 500 Index option-implied risk-neutral distributions. Our findings offer explanations of why theoretical predictions of option pricing models are not consistent with what is observed in practice and provide support that market default risk is important to asset pricing

Assessing the risk of central post-stroke pain of thalamic origin by lesion mapping

Central post-stroke pain of thalamic origin is an extremely distressing and often refractory disorder. There are no well-established predictors for pain development after thalamic stroke, and the role of different thalamic nuclei is unclear. Here, we used structural magnetic resonance imaging to identify the thalamic nuclei, specifically implicated in the generation of central post-stroke pain of thalamic origin. Lesions of 10 patients with central post-stroke pain of thalamic origin and 10 control patients with thalamic strokes without pain were identified as volumes of interest on magnetic resonance imaging data. Non-linear deformations were estimated to match each image with a high-resolution template and were applied to each volume of interest. By using a digital atlas of the thalamus, we elucidated the involvement of different nuclei with respect to each lesion. Patient and control volumes of interest were summed separately to identify unique areas of involvement. Voxelwise odds ratio maps were calculated to localize the anatomical site where lesions put patients at risk of developing central post-stroke pain of thalamic origin. In the patients with pain, mainly lateral and posterior thalamic nuclei were affected, whereas a more anterior-medial lesion pattern was evident in the controls. The lesions of 9 of 10 pain patients overlapped at the border of the ventral posterior nucleus and the pulvinar, coinciding with the ventrocaudalis portae nucleus. The lesions of this area showed an odds ratio of 81 in favour of developing thalamic pain. The high odds ratio at the ventral posterior nucleus-pulvinar border zone indicates that this area is crucial in the pathogenesis of thalamic pain and demonstrates the feasibility of identifying patients at risk of developing central post-stroke pain of thalamic origin early after thalamic insults. This provides a basis for pre-emptive treatment studie

Confession Session: Learning from Others Mistakes

Accepted versio