Ahorro y crecimiento económico: evidencia empírica de causalidad para el período 1970-2002

El ahorro es un tema de discusión siempre presente en los diversos ámbitos académicos, políticos y sociales del país. Es así porque el ahorro es considerado un elemento esencial en el proceso de acumulación de capital y para el crecimiento económico. Tal fenómeno ejerce presión sobre el nivel de ahorro en el país y sobre la necesidad de recursos. Por ello, es clara la importancia de un estudio acerca del ahorro en Ecuador, de las cuales hay que identificar su comportamiento y su relación con otras variables para proponer medidas que impulsen el crecimiento económico. Así pues, la hipótesis fundamental de la presente investigación parte del hecho de que para generar mayor ahorro interno hay que incentivar el crecimiento económico como fuente sana de financiamiento. Por tanto, no se pude incrementar el ahorro interno sino no hay estabilidad económica. Esto significa que se debe hacer sostenible el crecimiento del PIB, fortalecer la balanza de pagos y estabilizar las tasas de interés. Para ello, se realiza un estudio econométrico de la causalidad entre el ahorro y el crecimiento económico de Ecuador, establecer los determinantes del ahorro interno y señalando las relaciones de largo plazo entre las variables

A global analysis of Spitzer and new HARPS data confirms the loneliness and metal-richness of GJ 436 b

Context. GJ 436b is one of the few transiting warm Neptunes for which a detailed characterisation of the atmosphere is possible, whereas its non-negligible orbital eccentricity calls for further investigation. Independent analyses of several individual datasets obtained with Spitzer have led to contradicting results attributed to the different techniques used to treat the instrumental effects. Aims. We aim at investigating these previous controversial results and developing our knowledge of the system based on the full Spitzer photometry dataset combined with new Doppler measurements obtained with the HARPS spectrograph. We also want to search for additional planets. Methods. We optimise aperture photometry techniques and the photometric deconvolution algorithm DECPHOT to improve the data reduction of the Spitzer photometry spanning wavelengths from 3-24 {\mu}m. Adding the high precision HARPS radial velocity data, we undertake a Bayesian global analysis of the system considering both instrumental and stellar effects on the flux variation. Results. We present a refined radius estimate of RP=4.10 +/- 0.16 R_Earth, mass MP=25.4 +/- 2.1 M_Earth and eccentricity e= 0.162 +/- 0.004 for GJ 436b. Our measured transit depths remain constant in time and wavelength, in disagreement with the results of previous studies. In addition, we find that the post-occultation flare-like structure at 3.6 {\mu}m that led to divergent results on the occultation depth measurement is spurious. We obtain occultation depths at 3.6, 5.8, and 8.0 {\mu}m that are shallower than in previous works, in particular at 3.6 {\mu}m. However, these depths still appear consistent with a metal-rich atmosphere depleted in methane and enhanced in CO/CO2, although perhaps less than previously thought. We find no evidence for a potential planetary companion, stellar activity, nor for a stellar spin-orbit misalignment. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 25 pages, 26 figures, 8 tables, accepted for publication in A&

Atmospheric characterization of Proxima b by coupling the Sphere high-contrast imager to the Espresso spectrograph

Context. The temperate Earth-mass planet Proxima b is the closest exoplanet to Earth and represents what may be our best ever opportunity to search for life outside the Solar System. Aims. We aim at directly detecting Proxima b and characterizing its atmosphere by spatially resolving the planet and obtaining high-resolution reflected-light spectra. Methods. We propose to develop a coupling interface between the SPHERE high-contrast imager and the new ESPRESSO spectrograph, both installed at ESO VLT. The angular separation of 37 mas between Proxima b and its host star requires the use of visible wavelengths to spatially resolve the planet on a 8.2-m telescope. At an estimated planet-to-star contrast of ~10^-7 in reflected light, Proxima b is extremely challenging to detect with SPHERE alone. However, the combination of a ~10^3-10^4 contrast enhancement from SPHERE to the high spectral resolution of ESPRESSO can reveal the planetary spectral features and disentangle them from the stellar ones. Results. We find that significant but realistic upgrades to SPHERE and ESPRESSO would enable a 5-sigma detection of the planet and yield a measurement of its true mass and albedo in 20-40 nights of telescope time, assuming an Earth-like atmospheric composition. Moreover, it will be possible to probe the O2 bands at 627, 686 and 760 nm, the water vapour band at 717 nm, and the methane band at 715 nm. In particular, a 3.6-sigma detection of O2 could be made in about 60 nights of telescope time. Those would need to be spread over 3 years considering optimal observability conditions for the planet. Conclusions. The very existence of Proxima b and the SPHERE-ESPRESSO synergy represent a unique opportunity to detect biosignatures on an exoplanet in the near future. It is also a crucial pathfinder experiment for the development of Extremely Large Telescopes and their instruments (abridged).Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, revised version accepted to A&

The SOPHIE search for northern extrasolar planets VIII. A warm Neptune orbiting HD164595

High-precision radial velocity surveys explore the population of low-mass exoplanets orbiting bright stars. This allows accurately deriving their orbital parameters such as their occurrence rate and the statistical distribution of their properties. Based on this, models of planetary formation and evolution can be constrained. The SOPHIE spectrograph has been continuously improved in past years, and thanks to an appropriate correction of systematic instrumental drift, it is now reaching 2 m/s precision in radial velocity measurements on all timescales. As part of a dedicated radial velocity survey devoted to search for low-mass planets around a sample of 190 bright solar-type stars in the northern hemisphere, we report the detection of a warm Neptune with a minimum mass of 16.1 +- 2.7 Mearth orbiting the solar analog HD164595 in 40 +- 0.24 days . We also revised the parameters of the multiplanetary system around HD190360. We discuss this new detection in the context of the upcoming space mission CHEOPS, which is devoted to a transit search of bright stars harboring known exoplanets.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

Extrasolar planets and brown dwarfs around A--F type stars. VIII. A giant planet orbiting the young star HD113337

In the frame of the search for extrasolar planets and brown dwarfs around early-type main-sequence stars, we present the detection of a giant planet around the young F-type star HD113337. We estimated the age of the system to be 150 +100/-50 Myr. Interestingly, an IR excess attributed to a cold debris disk was previously detected on this star. The SOPHIE spectrograph on the 1.93m telescope at Observatoire de Haute-Provence was used to obtain ~300 spectra over 6 years. We used our SAFIR tool, dedicated to the spectra analysis of A and F stars, to derive the radial velocity variations. The data reveal a 324.0 +1.7/-3.3 days period that we attribute to a giant planet with a minimum mass of 2.83 +- 0.24 Mjup in an eccentric orbit with e=0.46 +- 0.04. A long-term quadratic drift, that we assign to be probably of stellar origin, is superimposed to the Keplerian solution.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XXXV. Planetary systems and stellar activity of the M dwarfs GJ 3293, GJ 3341, and GJ 3543

Context. Planetary companions of a fixed mass induce larger amplitude reflex motions around lower-mass stars, which helps make M dwarfs excellent targets for extra-solar planet searches. State of the art velocimeters with $\sim$1m/s stability can detect very low-mass planets out to the habitable zone of these stars. Low-mass, small, planets are abundant around M dwarfs, and most known potentially habitable planets orbit one of these cool stars. Aims. Our M-dwarf radial velocity monitoring with HARPS on the ESO 3.6m telescope at La Silla observatory makes a major contribution to this sample. Methods. We present here dense radial velocity (RV) time series for three M dwarfs observed over $\sim5$ years: GJ 3293 (0.42M$_\odot$), GJ 3341 (0.47M$_\odot$), and GJ 3543 (0.45M$_\odot$). We extract those RVs through minimum $\chi^2$ matching of each spectrum against a high S/N ratio stack of all observed spectra for the same star. We then vet potential orbital signals against several stellar activity indicators, to disentangle the Keplerian variations induced by planets from the spurious signals which result from rotational modulation of stellar surface inhomogeneities and from activity cycles. Results. Two Neptune-mass planets - $msin(i)=1.4\pm0.1$ and $1.3\pm0.1M_{nept}$ - orbit GJ 3293 with periods $P=30.60\pm0.02$ d and $P=123.98\pm0.38$ d, possibly together with a super-Earth - $msin(i)\sim7.9\pm1.4M_\oplus$ - with period $P=48.14\pm0.12\;d$. A super-Earth - $msin(i)\sim6.1M_\oplus$ - orbits GJ 3341 with $P=14.207\pm0.007\;d$. The RV variations of GJ 3543, on the other hand, reflect its stellar activity rather than planetary signals.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A, 19 pages, 12 figures, 7 table

Deriving High-Precision Radial Velocities

This chapter describes briefly the key aspects behind the derivation of precise radial velocities. I start by defining radial velocity precision in the context of astrophysics in general and exoplanet searches in particular. Next I discuss the different basic elements that constitute a spectrograph, and how these elements and overall technical choices impact on the derived radial velocity precision. Then I go on to discuss the different wavelength calibration and radial velocity calculation techniques, and how these are intimately related to the spectrograph's properties. I conclude by presenting some interesting examples of planets detected through radial velocity, and some of the new-generation instruments that will push the precision limit further.Comment: Lecture presented at the IVth Azores International Advanced School in Space Sciences on "Asteroseismology and Exoplanets: Listening to the Stars and Searching for New Worlds" (arXiv:1709.00645), which took place in Horta, Azores Islands, Portugal in July 201

MASPEGHI 2004 Mechanisms for Speialization, Generalization and Inheritance

Rapport de Recherche Projet OCL, N° I3S/RR-2004-15-FRInternational audienceMASPEGHI 2004 is the third edition of the MASPEGHI workshop. This year the organizers of both the ECOOP 2002 Inheritance Workshop and MASPEGHI 2003 came together to enlarge the scope of the workshop and to address new challenges. We succeeded in gathering a diverse group of researchers and practitioners interested in mechanisms for managing specialization and generalization of programming language components. The workshop contained a series of presentations with discussions as well as group work, and the interplay between the more than 22 highly skilled and inspiring people from many different communities gave rise to fruitful discussions and the potential for continued collaboration

The SOPHIE search for northern extrasolar planets. XI. Three new companions and an orbit update: Giant planets in the habitable zone

We report the discovery of three new substellar companions to solar-type stars, HD191806, HD214823, and HD221585, based on radial velocity measurements obtained at the Haute-Provence Observatory. Data from the SOPHIE spectrograph are combined with observations acquired with its predecessor, ELODIE, to detect and characterise the orbital parameters of three new gaseous giant and brown dwarf candidates. Additionally, we combine SOPHIE data with velocities obtained at the Lick Observatory to improve the parameters of an already known giant planet companion, HD16175 b. Thanks to the use of different instruments, the data sets of all four targets span more than ten years. Zero-point offsets between instruments are dealt with using Bayesian priors to incorporate the information we possess on the SOPHIE/ELODIE offset based on previous studies. The reported companions have orbital periods between three and five years and minimum masses between 1.6 Mjup and 19 Mjup. Additionally, we find that the star HD191806 is experiencing a secular acceleration of over 11 \ms\ per year, potentially due to an additional stellar or substellar companion. A search for the astrometric signature of these companions was carried out using Hipparcos data. No orbit was detected, but a significant upper limit to the companion mass can be set for HD221585, whose companion must be substellar. With the exception of HD191806 b, the companions are located within the habitable zone of their host star. Therefore, satellites orbiting these objects could be a propitious place for life to develop.Comment: 12 pages + tables, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Crisis financieras y el papel de la banca central : un enfoque teórico

Las crisis financieras tienen efectos nefastos en una economía en caso que ésta no pueda ser prevenida eficientemente por el planificador central o el agente regulador de este sector. En el manejo de las crisis es importante distinguir entre la regulación previa que se tiene que dar al sector financiero y el comportamiento de la autoridad monetaria en caso que se produzca la crisis a pesar de la regulación. Para poder ofrecer soluciones en cuanto a regulación y comportamiento de la banca central es preciso conocer cómo se manejan las instituciones financieras en su afán de conseguir captaciones y colocar las mismas para obtener utilidades; así mismo es importante conocer el comportamiento de los agregados en caso que se produzca un shock monetario que pueda llevar a la economía a una crisis bancaria, en este contexto las soluciones propuestas dependerán de las preferencias por estabilidad de determinados agregados por parte de la autoridad. No es posible entender el comportamiento de las instituciones financieras y del gobierno como ente regulador si no se considera a estos como agentes racionales que maximizan su utilidad, en este trabajo se presenta estas características y se plantea diferentes situaciones para ofrecer recomendaciones que sean compatibles con los incentivos de cada agente participante en una situación de crisis bancaria