Complex delay dynamics on railway networks: from universal laws to realistic modelling

Railways are a key infrastructure for any modern country. The reliability and resilience of this peculiar transportation system may be challenged by different shocks such as disruptions, strikes and adverse weather conditions. These events compromise the correct functioning of the system and trigger the spreading of delays into the railway network on a daily basis. Despite their importance, a general theoretical understanding of the underlying causes of these disruptions is still lacking. In this work, we analyse the Italian and German railway networks by leveraging on the train schedules and actual delay data retrieved during the year 2015. We use {these} data to infer simple statistical laws ruling the emergence of localized delays in different areas of the network and we model the spreading of these delays throughout the network by exploiting a framework inspired by epidemic spreading models. Our model offers a fast and easy tool for the preliminary assessment of the {effectiveness of} traffic handling policies, and of the railway {network} criticalities.Comment: 32 pages (with appendix), 28 Figures (with appendix), 2 Table

GANIL axial injection design with an ECR ion source

International audienc

Shrinking Point Bifurcations of Resonance Tongues for Piecewise-Smooth, Continuous Maps

Resonance tongues are mode-locking regions of parameter space in which stable periodic solutions occur; they commonly occur, for example, near Neimark-Sacker bifurcations. For piecewise-smooth, continuous maps these tongues typically have a distinctive lens-chain (or sausage) shape in two-parameter bifurcation diagrams. We give a symbolic description of a class of "rotational" periodic solutions that display lens-chain structures for a general $N$-dimensional map. We then unfold the codimension-two, shrinking point bifurcation, where the tongues have zero width. A number of codimension-one bifurcation curves emanate from shrinking points and we determine those that form tongue boundaries.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figure

Design and validation of a virtual player for studying interpersonal coordination in the mirror game

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The mirror game has been recently proposed as a simple, yet powerful paradigm for studying interpersonal interactions. It has been suggested that a virtual partner able to play the game with human subjects can be an effective tool to affect the underlying neural processes needed to establish the necessary connections between the players, and also to provide new clinical interventions for rehabilitation of patients suffering from social disorders. Inspired by the motor processes of the central nervous system (CNS) and the musculoskeletal system in the human body, in this paper we develop a novel interactive cognitive architecture based on nonlinear control theory to drive a virtual player (VP) to play the mirror game with a human player (HP) in different configurations. Specifically, we consider two cases: the former where the VP acts as leader and the latter where it acts as follower. The crucial problem is to design a feedback control architecture capable of imitating and following or leading a human player in a joint action task. Movement of the end-effector of the VP is modeled by means of a feedback controlled Haken-Kelso-Bunz (HKB) oscillator, which is coupled with the observed motion of the HP measured in real time. To this aim, two types of control algorithms (adaptive control and optimal control) are used and implemented on the HKB model so that the VP can generate a human-like motion while satisfying certain kinematic constraints. A proof of convergence of the control algorithms is presented in the paper together with an extensive numerical and experimental validation of their effectiveness. A comparison with other existing designs is also discussed, showing the flexibility and the advantages of our control-based approach.This work was funded by the European Project AlterEgo FP7 ICT 2.9 - Cognitive Sciences and Robotics, Grant Number 600610

Finding Exogenous Variables in Data with Many More Variables than Observations

Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situations with orders of magnitude more variables than observations (p>>n). In this paper, we propose a method to find exogenous variables in a linear non-Gaussian causal model, which requires much smaller sample sizes than conventional methods and works even when p>>n. The key idea is to identify which variables are exogenous based on non-Gaussianity instead of estimating the entire structure of the model. Exogenous variables work as triggers that activate a causal chain in the model, and their identification leads to more efficient experimental designs and better understanding of the causal mechanism. We present experiments with artificial data and real-world gene expression data to evaluate the method.Comment: A revised version of this was published in Proc. ICANN201

Dark Matter detection via lepton cosmic rays

Recent observations of lepton cosmic rays, coming from the PAMELA and FERMI experiments, have pushed our understanding of the interstellar medium and cosmic rays sources to unprecedented levels. The imprint of dark matter on lepton cosmic rays is the most exciting explanation of both PAMELA's positron excess and FERMI's total flux of electrons. Alternatively, supernovae are astrophysical objects with the same potential to explain these observations. In this work, we present an updated study of the astrophysical sources of lepton cosmic rays and the possible trace of a dark matter signal on the positron excess and total flux of electrons.Comment: 6 pages and 3 figures. Proceedings for PASCOS 2010, Valencia, Spai

Assessing the consequences of gestational diabetes mellitus on offspring's cardiovascular health: MySweetHeart Cohort study protocol, Switzerland.

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a state of glucose intolerance with onset during pregnancy. GDM carries prenatal and perinatal risks as well as long-term risks for the mother and her child. GDM may be involved in the foetal programming of long-term cardiovascular health. However, evidence is sparse and the effect of GDM on cardiovascular health is unknown. To address these issues, we will conduct MySweetHeart Cohort study. The objectives are to assess the effect of GDM on offspring's cardiovascular health early in life by using surrogate markers of cardiovascular disease and atherosclerosis. This is a cohort study of 100 offspring of women with GDM and 100 offspring of women without GDM. At inclusion, a baseline assessment of the mothers will be conducted through means of self-report questionnaires, a researcher-administrated interview, blood pressure and anthropometric measurements, and a maternal blood sampling. Between the 30th and 34th weeks of gestation, a foetal echography will be performed to assess the foetal cardiac structure and function, the fetomaternal circulation and the hepatic volume. At birth, maternal and neonatal characteristics will be assessed. An echocardiography will be performed to assess cardiac structure and function 2-7 days after birth; carotid intima-media thickness will be also measured to assess vascular structure. MySweetHeart Cohort is linked to MySweetHeart Trial (clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02890693), a randomised controlled trial assessing the effect of a multidimensional interdisciplinary lifestyle and psychosocial intervention to improve the cardiometabolic and mental health of women with GDM and their offspring. A long-term follow-up of children is planned. Ethical approval has been obtained through the state Human Research Ethics Committee of the Canton de Vaud (study number 2016-00745). We aim to disseminate the findings through regional, national and international conferences and through peer-reviewed journals. ClinicalTrials.gov (clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02872974)

Chaos and stability in a two-parameter family of convex billiard tables

We study, by numerical simulations and semi-rigorous arguments, a two-parameter family of convex, two-dimensional billiard tables, generalizing the one-parameter class of oval billiards of Benettin--Strelcyn [Phys. Rev. A 17, 773 (1978)]. We observe interesting dynamical phenomena when the billiard tables are continuously deformed from the integrable circular billiard to different versions of completely-chaotic stadia. In particular, we conjecture that a new class of ergodic billiard tables is obtained in certain regions of the two-dimensional parameter space, when the billiards are close to skewed stadia. We provide heuristic arguments supporting this conjecture, and give numerical confirmation using the powerful method of Lyapunov-weighted dynamics.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures. Submitted for publication. Supplementary video available at http://sistemas.fciencias.unam.mx/~dsanders

Single centre experience of the application of self navigated 3D whole heart cardiovascular magnetic resonance for the assessment of cardiac anatomy in congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: For free-breathing cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), the self-navigation technique recently emerged, which is expected to deliver high-quality data with a high success rate. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that self-navigated 3D-CMR enables the reliable assessment of cardiovascular anatomy in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) and to define factors that affect image quality. METHODS: CHD patients ≥2 years-old and referred for CMR for initial assessment or for a follow-up study were included to undergo a free-breathing self-navigated 3D CMR at 1.5T. Performance criteria were: correct description of cardiac segmental anatomy, overall image quality, coronary artery visibility, and reproducibility of great vessels diameter measurements. Factors associated with insufficient image quality were identified using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Self-navigated CMR was performed in 105 patients (55% male, 23 ± 12y). Correct segmental description was achieved in 93% and 96% for observer 1 and 2, respectively. Diagnostic quality was obtained in 90% of examinations, and it increased to 94% if contrast-enhanced. Left anterior descending, circumflex, and right coronary arteries were visualized in 93%, 87% and 98%, respectively. Younger age, higher heart rate, lower ejection fraction, and lack of contrast medium were independently associated with reduced image quality. However, a similar rate of diagnostic image quality was obtained in children and adults. CONCLUSION: In patients with CHD, self-navigated free-breathing CMR provides high-resolution 3D visualization of the heart and great vessels with excellent robustness