The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design

Climate change mitigation policies for the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector are commonly assessed based on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) derived from optimization models or engineering approaches. Yet, little is known about the space of validity of MACCs and how they are influenced by changes in main underlying drivers. In this study, we apply the Global Forest Model (G4M) to explore the sensitivity of MACCs to variation of socioeconomic drivers of deforestation, afforestation, and forest management activities. Particularly, three key factors are considered: (I) wood price, as an indicator of timber market developments; (II) agricultural land price, as a proxy representing the developments on agricultural markets; and (III) corruption coefficient, representing the progress in institutional development and measuring abatement costs use efficiency. The results indicate that the MACCs are more sensitive to the corruption coefficient than to agricultural land price and wood price. Furthermore, we find that the MACCs are more robust with high carbon dioxide (CO2) price and that the sensitivity of the MACCs is higher at low CO2 prices. In general, it can be concluded that when assessing medium-term mitigation policies characterized by low CO2 prices, MACCs need to be developed in-line with institutions currently in place. When designing long-term mitigation policy characterized by high CO2 prices, the role of the analyzed drivers in MACCs estimation is less important

Global food efficiency of climate change mitigation in agriculture

Concerns exist regarding potential trade-offs between climate change mitigation in agriculture and food security. Against this background, the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) is applied to a range of scenarios of mitigation of emissions from agriculture to assess the implications of climate mitigation for agricultural production, prices and food availability. The " food efficiency of mitigation " (FEM) is introduced as a tool to make statements about how to attain desired levels of agricultural mitigation in the most efficient manner in terms of food security. It is applied to a range of policy scenarios which contrast a climate policy regime with full global collaboration to scenarios of fragmented climate policies that grant exemptions to selected developing country groups. Results indicate increasing marginal costs of abatement in terms of food calories and suggest that agricultural mitigation is most food efficient in a policy regime with global collaboration. Exemptions from this regime cause food efficiency losses

Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2 degrees C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle- income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest

The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU: Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts

Biofuels are promoted as an option to reduce climate emissions from the transport sector. As most biofuels are currently produced from land based crops, there is a concern that the increased consumption of biofuels requires agricultural expansion at a global scale, leading to additional carbon emissions. This effect is called Indirect Land Use Change, or ILUC. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) directed the European Commission to develop a methodology to account for the ILUC effect. The current study serves to provide new insights to the European Commission and other stakeholders about these indirect carbon and land impacts from biofuels consumed in the EU, with more details on production processes and representation of individual feedstocks than was done before. ILUC cannot be observed or measured in reality, because it is entangled with a large number of other changes in agricultural markets at both global and local levels. The effect can only be estimated through the use of models. The current study is part of a continuous effort to improve the understanding and representation of ILUC

Exploring Large Digital Library Collections Using a Map-Based Visualisation

In this paper we describe a novel approach for exploring large document collections using a map-based visualisation. We use hierarchically structured semantic concepts that are attached to the documents to create a visualisation of the semantic space that resembles a Google Map. The approach is novel in that we exploit the hierarchical structure to enable the approach to scale to large document collections and to create a map where the higher levels of spatial abstraction have semantic meaning. An informal evaluation is carried out to gather subjective feedback from users. Overall results are positive with users finding the visualisation enticing and easy to use

Screening of depression in adolescents through the Internet: Sensitivity and specificity of two screening questionnaires.

.001). The scores on both instruments were significantly increased in all subjects with a mood disorder, whether current or lifetime, except for lifetime minor depression. In the ROC analyses, high areas under the curve were found for the MDI (0.89) and CESD (0.90). The best cut-off point for the MDI was 19 (sensitivity: 90.48; specificity: 71.53), and for the CES-D it was 22 (sensitivity: 90.48; specificity: 74.31). We conclude that the MDI and CES-D are reliable and valid instruments that can be used for this screening

Molecular Evolution of Broadly Neutralizing Llama Antibodies to the CD4-Binding Site of HIV-1

To date, no immunization of humans or animals has elicited broadly neutralizing sera able to prevent HIV-1 transmission; however, elicitation of broad and potent heavy chain only antibodies (HCAb) has previously been reported in llamas. In this study, the anti-HIV immune responses in immunized llamas were studied via deep sequencing analysis using broadly neutralizing monoclonal HCAbs as a guides. Distinct neutralizing antibody lineages were identified in each animal, including two defined by novel antibodies (as variable regions called VHH) identified by robotic screening of over 6000 clones. The combined application of five VHH against viruses from clades A, B, C and CRF_AG resulted in neutralization as potent as any of the VHH individually and a predicted 100% coverage with a median IC50 of 0.17 µg/ml for the panel of 60 viruses tested. Molecular analysis of the VHH repertoires of two sets of immunized animals showed that each neutralizing lineage was only observed following immunization, demonstrating that they were elicited de novo. Our results show that immunization can induce potent and broadly neutralizing antibodies in llamas with features similar to human antibodies and provide a framework to analyze the effectiveness of immunization protocols

Need of Assistance with Daily Oral Hygiene Measures Among Nursing Home Resident Elderly Versus the Actual Assistance Received from the Staff

The aim was to evaluate the need of assistance with daily oral hygiene measures among nursing home resident elderly versus the actual assistance received from the staff. The need of daily oral hygiene assistance was assessed descriptively for nursing home resident elderly who participated in an annual oral health screening in three geographical regions in Sweden, in the year 2008. All individuals of age ≥ 65 years were included (n = 22,453; 6,327 men; 16,126 women). The proportion of individuals in need of assistance with daily oral hygiene measures was 77.5 % (n=22,453), whereas the proportion of individuals receiving assistance with daily oral hygiene measures was 6.9 % in total (n=22,453). The proportions were largely similar in all geographical regions. There seems to be a large discrepancy between the need of assistance with daily oral hygiene measures, and the oral hygiene assistance received, among nursing home resident elderly

Impact of the 2 °C target on global woody biomass use

In this study we investigate the implications of reaching the 2 °C climate target for global woody biomass use by applying the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) and the recently published SSP-RCP scenario calculations. We show that the higher biomass demand for energy needed to reach the 2 °C target can be achieved without significant distortions to woody biomass material use and that it can even benefit certain forest industries and regions. This is because the higher woody biomass use for energy increases the demand for forest industry by-products, which makes forest industry final products production more profitable and compensates for the cost effect of increased competition over raw materials. The higher woody biomass use for energy is found to benefit sawnwood, plywood and chemical pulp production, which provide large amounts of by-products, and to inhibit fiberboard and mechanical pulp production, which provide small amounts of by-products. At the regional level, the higher woody biomass use for energy is found to benefit material production in regions, which use little roundwood for energy (Russia, North-America and EU28), and to inhibit material production in regions, which use large amounts of roundwood for energy (Asia, Africa and South-America). Even if the 2 °C target increases harvest volumes in the tropical regions significantly compared to the non-mitigation scenario, harvest volumes remain in these regions at a relatively low level compared to the harvest potential

Global Woody Biomass Harvest Volumes and Forest Area Use Under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomic pathways(“SSPs”) and the representative concentration pathways (“RCPs”). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, and carbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate change mitigation and socio-economic development may increase harvest volumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomass harvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation option relative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However, the payments do not have much impact on the profitability of woody biomass harvesting for material products and traditional bioenergy. The reason is that energy crops provide a substitute for woody biomass use for modern bioenergy while there are less substitutes available for woody biomass use for material products and traditional bioenergy. Provided that carbon payments can be used as a policy instrument to control impacts of climate change mitigation on harvest volumes and harvested area, an unfavorable future socioeconomic development may cause a greater threat to the world’s forests than climate change mitigation