Pegging To The Dollar And The Euro

The newly-launched euro is bound to attract some "trackers"- that is, countries that attempt to maintain exchange rate stability against the euro. In this paper, we ask whether the existence of trackers should be a matter of concern for the European Union. To gain some insight, we review the historical experience of the US with respect to dollar trackers. We identify and analyse the countries most likely to track the euro. Although the aggregate size of potential euro-trackers is small relative to the euro zone, we argue that this does not justify an attitude of benign neglect. Rather, we make recommendations for EU policy towards euro-trackers, arguing in favour of some limited and conditional support for stable bilateral exchange rates.

The breakup of a liquid jet at microgravity

The parameter ranges in which a viscous liquid jet emanating into a viscous gas will breakup in three different modes are calculated. The three modes of jet breakup are: Rayleigh mode of capillary pinching, Taylor mode of atomization, and the absolute instability mode. The apparatus designed for elucidating these three different modes of instability is described. Some preliminary results of the ongoing ground based experiments will be reported

Expenditure Reform in Industrialised Countries: A Case Study Approach

This study examines reforms of public expenditure in industrialised countries over the past two decades. We distinguish ambitious and timid reformers and analyse in detail reform experiences in eight case studies of ambitious reform episodes. We find that ambitious reform countries reduce spending on transfers, subsidies and public consumption while largely sparing education spending. Such expenditure retrenchment is also typically part of a comprehensive reform package that includes improvements in fiscal institutions as well as structural and other macroeconomic reforms. The study finds that ambitious expenditure retrenchment and reform coincides with large improvements in fiscal and economic growth indicators

Forecasting U.S. Home Foreclosures with an Index of Internet Keyword Searches

Finding data to feed into financial and risk management models can be challenging. Many analysts attribute a lack of data or quality information as a contributing factor to the worldwide financial crises that seems to have begun in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. In this paper, a new source of data, key word search statistics recently available from Google, are applied in a experiment to develop a short-term forecasting model for the number of foreclosures in the U.S. housing market. The keyword search data significantly improves forecast of foreclosures, suggesting that this data can be useful for financial risk management. More generally, the new data source shows promise for a variety of financial and market analyses

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Determinants of the Eurozone Crisis and Its Resolution

Unlike the crisis years of 2007-2009 (when the insolvency of large banks was a major problem), the current round of the global financial crisis has fiscal origins. Almost all developed countries suffer from an excessive public debt burden that has been built up over the last two decades or more. The financial crisis caused a further deterioration of government accounts as a result of ill-tailored countercyclical fiscal response and, in some cases, a costly financial sector rescue. All excessively indebted countries must conduct fiscal adjustment, even if this involves economic and political costs in terms of lower output and higher unemployment. Central banks can reduce these costs through accommodative monetary policies but without compromising their anti-inflationary missions and institutional independence. The ECB is additionally constrained by its institutional status which is based on a delicate cross-country political consensus. Excessive ECB involvement in quasi-fiscal rescue operations can undermine this consensus and lead to a disintegration of the Eurozone. There are also strong arguments in favor of strengthening fiscal and banking integration within the EU, especially the fiscal discipline mechanism at national levels, and building the EU rescue capacity in respect to sovereigns and banks based on strong policy conditionality