Likelihood Ratio as Weight of Forensic Evidence: A Closer Look

The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this approach have argued that Bayesian reasoning proves it to be normative. We find this likelihood ratio paradigm to be unsupported by arguments of Bayesian decision theory, which applies only to personal decision making and not to the transfer of information from an expert to a separate decision maker. We further argue that decision theory does not exempt the presentation of a likelihood ratio from uncertainty characterization, which is required to assess the fitness for purpose of any transferred quantity. We propose the concept of a lattice of assumptions leading to an uncertainty pyramid as a framework for assessing the uncertainty in an evaluation of a likelihood ratio. We demonstrate the use of these concepts with illustrative examples regarding the refractive index of glass and automated comparison scores for fingerprints.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1608.0759

Multiscale anisotropic fluctuations in sheared turbulence with multiple states

We use high resolution direct numerical simulations to study the anisotropic contents of a turbulent, statistically homogeneous flow with random transitions among multiple energy containing states. We decompose the velocity correlation functions on different sectors of the three dimensional group of rotations, SO(3), using a high-precision quadrature. Scaling properties of anisotropic components of longitudinal and transverse velocity fluctuations are accurately measured at changing Reynolds numbers. We show that independently of the anisotropic content of the energy containing eddies, small-scale turbulent fluctuations recover isotropy and universality faster than previously reported in experimental and numerical studies. The discrepancies are ascribed to the presence of highly anisotropic contributions that have either been neglected or measured with less accuracy in the foregoing works. Furthermore, the anomalous anisotropic scaling exponents are devoid of any sign of saturation with increasing order. Our study paves the way to systematically assess persistence of anisotropy in high Reynolds number flows.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure