Deterministic Dynamics in the Minority Game

The Minority Game (MG) behaves as a stochastically perturbed deterministic system due to the coin-toss invoked to resolve tied strategies. Averaging over this stochasticity yields a description of the MG's deterministic dynamics via mapping equations for the strategy score and global information. The strategy-score map contains both restoring-force and bias terms, whose magnitudes depend on the game's quenched disorder. Approximate analytical expressions are obtained and the effect of `market impact' discussed. The global-information map represents a trajectory on a De Bruijn graph. For small quenched disorder, an Eulerian trail represents a stable attractor. It is shown analytically how anti-persistence arises. The response to perturbations and different initial conditions are also discussed.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Computer programs calculate potential and charge distributions in a plasma

Computer program determines the potential and charge distributions between two electrodes in a plasma. Solutions of the Vlasov equations for plane, cylindrical, and spherical geometries are determined and density distributions are found for each of these configurations over a range of conditions

Experimental investigation of reactor-loop transients during startup of a simulated SNAP-8 system

Primary loop transients during startup of Rankine cycle space power system in SNAP 8 simulato

Crowd-Anticrowd Theory of Multi-Agent Market Games

We present a dynamical theory of a multi-agent market game, the so-called Minority Game (MG), based on crowds and anticrowds. The time-averaged version of the dynamical equations provides a quantitatively accurate, yet intuitively simple, explanation for the variation of the standard deviation (`volatility') in MG-like games. We demonstrate this for the basic MG, and the MG with stochastic strategies. The time-dependent equations themselves reproduce the essential dynamics of the MG.Comment: Presented at APFA2 (Liege) July 2000. Proceedings: Eur.Phys.J. B [email protected]

Anatomy of extreme events in a complex adaptive system

We provide an analytic, microscopic analysis of extreme events in an adaptive population comprising competing agents (e.g. species, cells, traders, data-packets). Such large changes tend to dictate the long-term dynamical behaviour of many real-world systems in both the natural and social sciences. Our results reveal a taxonomy of extreme events, and provide a microscopic understanding as to their build-up and likely duration.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. Now with Postscript figure

From market games to real-world markets

This paper uses the development of multi-agent market models to present a unified approach to the joint questions of how financial market movements may be simulated, predicted, and hedged against. We examine the effect of different market clearing mechanisms and show that an out-of-equilibrium clearing process leads to dynamics that closely resemble real financial movements. We then show that replacing the `synthetic' price history used by these simulations with data taken from real financial time-series leads to the remarkable result that the agents can collectively learn to identify moments in the market where profit is attainable. We then employ the formalism of Bouchaud and Sornette in conjunction with agent based models to show that in general risk cannot be eliminated from trading with these models. We also show that, in the presence of transaction costs, the risk of option writing is greatly increased. This risk, and the costs, can however be reduced through the use of a delta-hedging strategy with modified, time-dependent volatility structure.Comment: Presented at APFA2 (Liege) July 2000. Proceedings: Eur. Phys. J. B Latex file + 10 .ps figs. [email protected]

Crowd-anticrowd theory of the Minority Game

The Minority Game is a simple yet highly non-trivial agent-based model for a complex adaptive system. Despite its importance, a quantitative explanation of the game's fluctuations which applies over the entire parameter range of interest has so far been lacking. We provide such a quantitative description based on the interplay between crowds of like-minded agents and their anti-correlated partners (anticrowds).Comment: Shortened version of cond-mat/0003486. Submitted for publicatio

Medium-term performance and maintenance of SUDS:a case-study of Hopwood Park Motorway Service Area, UK

One of the main barriers to implementing SUDS is concern about performance and maintenance costs since there are few well-documented case-studies. This paper summarizes studies conducted between 2000 and 2008 of the performance and maintenance of four SUDS management trains constructed in 1999 at the Hopwood Park Motorway Service Area, central England. Assessments were made of the wildlife value and sedimentation in the SUDS ponds, the hydraulic performance of the coach park management train, water quality in all management trains, and soil/sediment composition in the grass filter strip, interceptor and ponds. Maintenance procedures and costs were also reviewed. Results demonstrate the benefits of a management train approach over individual SUDS units for flow attenuation, water treatment, spillage containment and maintenance. Peak flows, pond sediment depth and contaminant concentrations in sediment and water decreased through the coach park management train. Of the 2007 annual landscape budget of £15,000 for the whole site, the maintenance costs for SUDS only accounted for £2,500 compared to £4,000 for conventional drainage structures. Furthermore, since sediment has been attenuated in the management trains, the cost of sediment removal after the recommended period of three years was only £554 and, if the design is not compromised, less frequent removal will be required in future