MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF ORDERED MULTINOMIAL PARAMETERS

The pool-adjacent violator-algorithm (Ayer et al., 1955) has long been known to give the maximum likelihood estimator of a series of ordered binomial parameters, based on an independent observation from each distribution (see, Barlow et al., 1972). This result has immediate application to estimation of a survival distribution based on current survival status at a set of monitoring times. This paper considers an extended problem of maximum likelihood estimation of a series of ‘ordered’ multinomial parameters pi = (p1i, p2i, . . . , pmi) for 1 \u3c = I \u3c = k, where ordered means that pj1 \u3c = pj2 \u3c = .. . \u3c = pjk for each j with 1 \u3c = j \u3c = m-1. The data consist of k independent observations X1, . . . ,Xk where Xi has a multinomial distribution with probability parameter pi and known index ni \u3e = 1. By making use of variants of the pool adjacent violator algorithm, we obtain a simple algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimator of p1, . . . , pk, and demonstrate its convergence. The results are applied to nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of the sub-distribution functions associated with a survival time random variable with competing risks when only current status data are available. (Jewell et al., 2003

Inconsistency of the MLE for the joint distribution of interval censored survival times and continuous marks

This paper considers the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the joint distribution function of an interval censored survival time and a continuous mark variable. We provide a new explicit formula for the MLE in this problem. We use this formula and the mark specific cumulative hazard function of Huang and Louis (1998) to obtain the almost sure limit of the MLE. This result leads to necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency of the MLE which imply that the MLE is inconsistent in general. We show that the inconsistency can be repaired by discretizing the marks. Our theoretical results are supported by simulations.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figure

Revision rates after primary hip and knee replacement in England between 2003 and 2006

<b>Background</b>: Hip and knee replacement are some of the most frequently performed surgical procedures in the world. Resurfacing of the hip and unicondylar knee replacement are increasingly being used. There is relatively little evidence on their performance. To study performance of joint replacement in England, we investigated revision rates in the first 3 y after hip or knee replacement according to prosthesis type. <b>Methods and Findings</b>: We linked records of the National Joint Registry for England and Wales and the Hospital Episode Statistics for patients with a primary hip or knee replacement in the National Health Service in England between April 2003 and September 2006. Hospital Episode Statistics records of succeeding admissions were used to identify revisions for any reason. 76,576 patients with a primary hip replacement and 80,697 with a primary knee replacement were included (51% of all primary hip and knee replacements done in the English National Health Service). In hip patients, 3-y revision rates were 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8%–1.1%) with cemented, 2.0% (1.7%–2.3%) with cementless, 1.5% (1.1%–2.0% CI) with “hybrid” prostheses, and 2.6% (2.1%–3.1%) with hip resurfacing (p < 0.0001). Revision rates after hip resurfacing were increased especially in women. In knee patients, 3-y revision rates were 1.4% (1.2%–1.5% CI) with cemented, 1.5% (1.1%–2.1% CI) with cementless, and 2.8% (1.8%–4.5% CI) with unicondylar prostheses (p < 0.0001). Revision rates after knee replacement strongly decreased with age. <b>Interpretation</b>: Overall, about one in 75 patients needed a revision of their prosthesis within 3 y. On the basis of our data, consideration should be given to using hip resurfacing only in male patients and unicondylar knee replacement only in elderly patients

Improved Experimental Limits on the Production of Magnetic Monopoles

We present new limits on low mass accelerator-produced point-like Dirac magnetic monopoles trapped and bound in matter surrounding the D\O collision region of the Tevatron at Fermilab (experiment E-882). In the context of a Drell-Yan mechanism, we obtain cross section limits for the production of monopoles with magnetic charge values of 1, 2, 3, and 6 times the minimum Dirac charge of the order of picobarns, some hundred times smaller than found in similar previous Fermilab searches. Mass limits inferred from these cross section limits are presented.Comment: 5 pages, 4 eps figures, REVTe

Superluminal neutrinos in long baseline experiments and SN1987a

Precise tests of Lorentz invariance in neutrinos can be performed using long baseline experiments such as MINOS and OPERA or neutrinos from astrophysical sources. The MINOS collaboration reported a measurement of the muonic neutrino velocities that hints to super-luminal propagation, very recently confirmed at 6 sigma by OPERA. We consider a general parametrisation which goes beyond the usual linear or quadratic violation considered in quantum-gravitational models. We also propose a toy model showing why Lorentz violation can be specific to the neutrino sector and give rise to a generic energy behaviour E^alpha, where alpha is not necessarily an integer number. Supernova bounds and the preferred MINOS and OPERA regions show a tension, due to the absence of shape distortion in the neutrino bunch in the far detector of MINOS. The energy independence of the effect has also been pointed out by the OPERA results.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures; comment on Cherenkov emission added, version matching JHEP published pape

Revealing three-dimensional structure of individual colloidal crystal grain by coherent x-ray diffractive imaging

We present results of a coherent x-ray diffractive imaging experiment performed on a single colloidal crystal grain. The full three-dimensional (3D) reciprocal space map measured by an azimuthal rotational scan contained several orders of Bragg reflections together with the coherent interference signal between them. Applying the iterative phase retrieval approach, the 3D structure of the crystal grain was reconstructed and positions of individual colloidal particles were resolved. As a result, an exact stacking sequence of hexagonal close-packed layers including planar and linear defects were identified.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Data mining in HIV-AIDS surveillance system: application to portuguese data

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is an infectious agent that attacks the immune system cells. Without a strong immune system, the body becomes very susceptible to serious life threatening opportunistic diseases. In spite of the great progresses on medication and prevention over the last years, HIV infection continues to be a major global public health issue, having claimed more than 36 million lives over the last 35 years since the recognition of the disease. Monitoring, through registries, of HIV-AIDS cases is vital to assess general health care needs and to support long-term health-policy control planning. Surveillance systems are therefore established in almost all developed countries. Typically, this is a complex system depending on several stakeholders, such as health care providers, the general population and laboratories, which challenges an efficient and effective reporting of diagnosed cases. One issue that often arises is the administrative delay in reports of diagnosed cases. This paper aims to identify the main factors influencing reporting delays of HIV-AIDS cases within the portuguese surveillance system. The used methodologies included multilayer artificial neural networks (MLP), naive bayesian classifiers (NB), support vector machines (SVM) and the k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN). The highest classification accuracy, precision and recall were obtained for MLP and the results suggested homogeneous administrative and clinical practices within the reporting process. Guidelines for reductions of the delays should therefore be developed nationwise and transversally to all stakeholders.- A. Rita Gaio was partially supported by CMUP (UID/MAT/00144/2013), which is funded by FCT (Portugal) with national (MEC) and European structural funds (FEDER), under the partnership agreement PT2020. Luis Paulo Reis was partially by the European Regional Development Fund through the programme COMPETE by FCT (Portugal) in the scope of the project PEst - UID/ CEC/00027/2015 Luis Paulo Reis and Brigida Monica Faria were partially funded by QVida+: Estimacao Continua de Qualidade de Vida para Auxilio Eficaz a Decisao Clinica, NORTE-01-0247-FEDER-003446, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement

Effective connectivity reveals strategy differences in an expert calculator

Mathematical reasoning is a core component of cognition and the study of experts defines the upper limits of human cognitive abilities, which is why we are fascinated by peak performers, such as chess masters and mental calculators. Here, we investigated the neural bases of calendrical skills, i.e. the ability to rapidly identify the weekday of a particular date, in a gifted mental calculator who does not fall in the autistic spectrum, using functional MRI. Graph-based mapping of effective connectivity, but not univariate analysis, revealed distinct anatomical location of “cortical hubs” supporting the processing of well-practiced close dates and less-practiced remote dates: the former engaged predominantly occipital and medial temporal areas, whereas the latter were associated mainly with prefrontal, orbitofrontal and anterior cingulate connectivity. These results point to the effect of extensive practice on the development of expertise and long term working memory, and demonstrate the role of frontal networks in supporting performance on less practiced calculations, which incur additional processing demands. Through the example of calendrical skills, our results demonstrate that the ability to perform complex calculations is initially supported by extensive attentional and strategic resources, which, as expertise develops, are gradually replaced by access to long term working memory for familiar material

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination