Independent Validation of an Existing Model Enables Prediction of Hearing Loss after Childhood Bacterial Meningitis

Objective: This study aimed external validation of a formerly developed prediction model identifying children at risk for hearing loss after bacterial meningitis (BM). Independent risk factors included in the model are: duration of symptoms prior to admission, petechiae, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) glucose level, Streptococcus pneumoniae and ataxia. Validation helps to evaluate whether the model has potential in clinical practice. Study design: 116 Dutch school-age BM survivors were included in the validation cohort and screened for sensorineural hearing loss (>25 dB). Risk factors were obtained from medical records. The model was applied to the validation cohort and its performance was compared with the development cohort. Validation was performed by application of the model on the validation cohort and by assessment of discrimination and goodness of fit. Calibration was evaluated by testing deviations in intercept and slope. Multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing values. Results: Risk factors were distributed equally between both cohorts. Discriminative ability (Area Under the Curve, AUC) of the model was 0.84 in the development and 0.78 in the validation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness of fit was not significant in the validation cohort, implying good fit concerning the similarity of expected and observed cases. There were no significant differences in calibration slope and intercept. Sensitivity and negative predicted value were high, while specificity and positive predicted value were low which is comparable with findings in the development cohort. Conclusions: Performance of the model remained good in the validation cohort. This prediction model might be used as a screening tool and can help to identify those children that need special attention and a long follow-up period or more frequent auditory testing

Aspects determining the risk of pesticides to wild bees: risk profiles for focal crops on three continents.

In order to conduct a proper risk assessment of pesticides to bees, information is needed in three areas: (i) the toxicity of the pesticide; (ii) the probability of bee exposure to that pesticide; and (iii) the population dynamics of the bee species in question. Information was collected on such factors affecting pesticide risk to (primarily wild) bees in several crops in Brazil, Kenya and The Netherlands. These data were used to construct ?risk profiles? of pesticide use for bees in the studied cropping systems. Data gaps were identified and potential risks of pesticides to bees were compared between the crops. Initially, risk profiling aims to better identify gaps in our present knowledge. In the longer term, the established risk profiles may provide structured inputs into risk assessment models for wild and managed bees, and lead to recommendations for specific risk mitigation measures.Edição dos Proceedings of the 11 International Symposium Hazards of Pesticides to Bees, Wageningen, nov. 2011

Toll-like receptor 9 polymorphisms are associated with severity variables in a cohort of meningococcal meningitis survivors

BACKGROUND: Genetic variation in immune response genes is associated with susceptibility and severity of infectious diseases. Toll-like receptor (TLR) 9 polymorphisms are associated with susceptibility to develop meningococcal meningitis (MM). The aim of this study is to compare genotype distributions of two TLR9 polymorphisms between clinical severity variables in MM survivors. METHODS: We used DNA samples of a cohort of 390 children who survived MM. Next, we determined the genotype frequencies of TLR9 -1237 and TLR9 +2848 polymorphisms and compared these between thirteen clinical variables associated with prognostic factors predicting adverse outcome of bacterial meningitis in children. RESULTS: The TLR9 -1237 TC and CC genotypes were associated with a decreased incidence of a positive blood culture for Neisseria (N.) meningitidis (p = 0.014, odds ratio (OR) 0.5. 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.3 – 0.9). The TLR9 +2848 AA mutant was associated with a decreased incidence of a positive blood culture for N. meningitidis (p = 0.017, OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.3 – 0.9). Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leukocytes per μL were higher in patients carrying the TLR9 -1237 TC or CC genotypes compared to carriers of the TT wild type (WT) (p = 0.024, medians: 2117, interquartile range (IQR) 4987 versus 955, IQR 3938). CSF blood/glucose ratios were lower in TLR9 -1237 TC or CC carriers than in carriers of the TT WT (p = 0.017, medians: 0.20, IQR 0.4 versus 0.35, IQR 0.5). CSF leukocytes/μL were higher in patients carrying the TLR9 +2848 AA mutant compared to carriers of GG or GA (p = 0.0067, medians: 1907, IQR 5221 versus 891, IQR 3952). CONCLUSIONS: We identified TLR9 genotypes associated with protection against meningococcemia and enhanced local inflammatory responses inside the central nervous system, important steps in MM pathogenesis and defense