System Analysis in International Development: From Concept to Application in Flood Prone Communities

Disasters pose a growing threat to sustainable development. Disaster risk management efforts have largely failed to arrest key drivers of uncontrolled urbanization and proliferation of assets in high risk areas. Systems analysis provides a unique interpretation of this failure, and a new pathway for remedy. Increasing “buzz” around the concept of disaster “resilience” (fundamentally a systems concept) has opened the door for the application of systems analysis in the complex arena of the social-ecological foundations of risk and development; yet it has been vaguely conceptualized, not offering a concrete approach to operationalization. We propose a conceptualization of disaster resilience built on system thinking. This conceptualization is centered on wellbeing (healthy system functioning) and explicitly draws attention to system interactions over the long term. We then present a systems analysis conceptual framework for exploring the real-world interconnections between disasters and development. Finally we outline how this framework has been applied with stakeholders in Peru, and present key lessons pertinent for researchers applying systems thinking in complex, socio-ecological governance settings

Assessing the resilience of a river management regime: Informal learning in a shadow network in the Tisza River Basin

Global sources of change offer unprecedented challenges to conventional river management strategies, which no longer appear capable of credibly addressing a trap: the failure of conventional river defense engineering to manage rising trends of disordering extreme events, including frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, and water stagnation in the Hungarian reaches of the Tisza River Basin. Extreme events punctuate trends of stagnation or decline in the ecosystems, economies, and societies of this river basin that extend back decades, and perhaps, centuries. These trends may be the long-term results of defensive strategies of the historical river management regime that reflect a paradigm dating back to the Industrial Revolution: "Protect the Landscape from the River." Since then all policies have defaulted to the imperatives of this paradigm such that it became the convention underlying the current river management regime. As an exponent of this convention the current river management regimes' methods, concepts, infrastructure, and paradigms that reinforce one another in setting the basin's development trajectory, have proven resilient to change from wars, political, and social upheaval for centuries. Failure to address the trap makes the current river management regimes resilience appear detrimental to the regions future development prospects and prompts demand for transformation to a more adaptive river management regime. Starting before transition to democracy, a shadow network has generated multiple dialogues in Hungary, informally exploring the roots of this trap as part of a search for ideas and methods to revitalize the region. We report on how international scientists joined one dialogue, applying system dynamics modeling tools to explore barriers and bridges to transformation of the current river management regime and develop the capacity for participatory science to expand the range of perspectives that inform, monitor, and revise learning, policy, and the practice of river management

Conceptual framework for scenarios development in the Water futures and Solutions project

The major purpose of the Water Futures & Solutions (WFaS) initiative is to develop a set of adaptable resilient and robust solutions and a framework to facilitate access to and guidance through them by decision makers facing a variety of water-related challenges to sustainable evelopment, and a set of optional pathways to achieve plausible sustainable development goals by 2050. The WFaS Initiative addresses the multidimensional aspects of the water system and is guided by stakeholders representing these various aspects. The Initiative views freshwater systems as being strongly interweaved with human activities (Economy, Society) and Nature as a whole. Dynamics and health of freshwater systems is critical to human well- being. The Initiative will go beyond scenario production and model comparisons and will focus on exploring solutions and necessary innovations to address the growing water challenges. Solutions can be combinations of technological innovations, regulatory approaches, manageent or institutional changes that improve the balance of water supply and demand, improve water quality, or reduce water-related risks for society. Solutions will often be embedded in and cut across all sectors of social and economic activities. In order to represent the aspirations and interdependencies as described above, the conceptual framework has been developed, to communicate project results to the target audiences. This document describes this conceptual framework that will be used: -to support development of qualitative water scenarios -to identify and select critical dimensions of the water scenarios -to guide integration of scenarios with quantitative models -to guide integration of information from various data sources into the scenarios -to support development and assessment of solutions -to support collaboration between project and stakeholder groups -to facilitate presentation of results to target audiences The WFaS conceptual framework is developed using the 'concept maps' technique (Caqas and Carff, 2005; Novak and Caqas, 2006b). Concept maps method was develop to represent knowledge in an organized way. It allows practitioners to represent concepts and specific relationships between concepts. It is flexible enough to adapt to different knowledge domains to support better understanding and communication between individuals and groups from different backgrounds

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to GDP growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century

Water Futures and Solution - Fast Track Initiative (Final Report)

The Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) is a cross-sector, collaborative global water project. Its objective is to apply systems analysis, develop scientific evidence and identify water-related policies and management practices, working together consistently across scales and sectors to improve human well-being through water security. The approach is a stakeholder-informed, scenario-based assessment of water resources and water demand that employs ensembles of state-of-the-art socio-economic and hydrological models, examines possible futures and tests the feasibility, sustainability and robustness of options that can be implemented today and can be sustainable and robust across a range of possible futures and associated uncertainties. This report aims at assessing the global current and future water situation

Exploring the Role of Relational Practices in Water Governance Using a Game-Based Approach

The growing complexity and interdependence of water management processes requires the involvement of multiple stakeholders in water governance. Multi-party collaboration is increasingly vital at both the strategy development and implementation levels. Multi-party collaboration involves a process of joint decision-making among key stakeholders in a problem domain directed towards the future of that domain. However, the common goal is not present from the beginning; rather, the common goal emerges during the process of collaboration. Unfortunately, when the conflicting interests of different actors are at stake, the large majority of environmental multi-party efforts often do not reliably deliver sustainable improvements to policy and/or practice. One of the reasons for this, which has been long established by many case studies, is that social learning with a focus on relational practices is missing. The purpose of this paper is to present the design and initial results of a pilot study that utilized a game-based approach to explore the effects of relational practices on the effectiveness of water governance. This paper verifies the methods used by addressing the following question: are game mechanisms, protocols for facilitation and observation, the recording of decisions and results, and participant surveys adequate to reliably test hypotheses about behavioral decisions related to water governance? We used the “Lords of the Valley” (LOV) game, which focuses on the local-level management of a hypothetical river valley involving many stakeholders. We used an observation protocol to collect data on the quality of relational practices and compared this data with the quantitative outcomes achieved by participants in the game. In this pilot study, we ran the game three times with different groups of participants, and here we provide the outcomes within the context of verifying and improving the methods

Towards Innovative Solutions through Integrative Futures Analysis - Preliminary qualitative scenarios

This report presents preliminary results of developing qualitative global water scenarios. The water scenarios are developed to be consistent with the underlying Shared Socio- Economic Pathways (SSPs). In this way different stakeholders in different contexts (climate, water) can be presented with consistent set of scenarios avoiding confusion and increasing policy impact. Water scenarios are based on the conceptual framework that has been developd specifically for this effort. The framework provides clear representation of important dimensions in the areas of Nature, Economy and Society and Water dimensions that are embedded in them. These critical dimensions are used to describe future changes in a consistent way for all scenarios. Three scenarios are presented based on SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 respectively. Hydro-economic classes are introduced to further differentiate within scenarios based on economic and water conditions for specific regions and/or countries. In the process of building these preliminary water scenarios assumptions that are presented in this report, the number of challenges have been met. In the conclusions section these challenges are summarized and possible ways of tackling them are described