Numerical study of two-dimensional moist symmetric instability

The 2-D version of the non-hydrostatic fully compressible model MOLOCH developed at ISAC-CNR was used in idealized set-up to study the start-up and finite amplitude evolution of symmetric instability. The unstable basic state was designed by numerical integration of the equation which defines saturated equivalent potential vorticity q<sub>e</sub><sup>*</sup>. We present the structure and growth rates of the linear modes both for a supersaturated initial state ("super"-linear mode) and for a saturated one ("pseudo"-linear mode) and the modifications induced on the base state by their finite amplitude evolution

Orographic triggering of long lived convection in three dimensions

A significant fraction of the occurrences of intense flash floods is due to quasi-stationary or long-lived convection that may insist on the same place for many hours, producing high values of accumulated precipitation. One of the elements that favour the initiation and anchoring of the convective system (MCS) is the orography. In one of the most severe floods (Gard basin in southern France, 8-9 September 2002), the orography of the Massif Central played a rather unusual role, favouring the onset and maintenance of the MCS at some distance upstream of the main orographic slope. In the present work the initial atmospheric conditions of this event have been largely idealized, taking horizontally uniform values for wind, temperature and humidity profiles, and a simplified isolated orography representing the sole Massif Central. A convective system is initiated in the non-hydrostatic simulations, embedded in a quasi-stationary solution of flow over the orography. It is shown that the triggering of convection occurs in the convergence zone immediately upstream of the orographic obstacle, at an altitude comparable with the mountain height. The subsequent growth of the mesoscale convective system is associated with a slow eastward drift, with the intense precipitation located upstream of the mountain and with the formation of a gust front that propagates against the incoming basic flow. Sensitivity experiments show that the development of convection critically depends on mountain height and moisture content. Although the results obtained in such idealized conditions do not reflect all the observed characteristics of the real event, they contribute to clarify the role of the orography in triggering and maintaining strong convection

On the correct surface stress for the prediction of the wind wave field and the storm surge in the Northern Adriatic Sea

This paper discusses which formulation of the surface stress over the sea determines the most accurate prediction of the wind wave field and storm surge in the Northern Adriatic Sea. The study shows that the results of the storm surge and wind wave models, when compared to the available observations, can be used for the validation of the surface stress and of the expression adopted for the ssr (sea surface roughness). The results are representative of short fetch and young wind sea conditions. The agreement between the results and the measurements shows the feasibility of the wind wave and storm surge predictions in the Adriatic Sea and supports the dependence of the ssr, and, therefore, of the surface stress, on the spectrum of the surface wave

Numerical study of a banded precipitation event over Italy

Satellite images of 30 October 2008 show the development over north-central Italy of rainbands and multiple waves during a strong south-westerly wind episode associated with a deepening synoptic trough and cold front passage. The event was studied by means of the ISAC model chain constituted of the hydrostatic model BOLAM and the nested non-hydrostatic model MOLOCH at 1.1 km resolution. Diagnostics of model output was performed to reveal the physical origin of the dynamical features and precipitation field as simulated. Based on our results we propose a theoretical framework in which symmetric instability underlies some of the observed precipitation patterns

Numerical study of a banded precipitation event over Italy

Satellite images of 30 October 2008 show the development over north-central Italy of rainbands and multiple waves during a strong south-westerly wind episode associated with a deepening synoptic trough and cold front passage. The event was studied by means of the ISAC model chain constituted of the hydrostatic model BOLAM and the nested non-hydrostatic model MOLOCH at 1.1 km resolution. Diagnostics of model output was performed to reveal the physical origin of the dynamical features and precipitation field as simulated. Based on our results we propose a theoretical framework in which symmetric instability underlies some of the observed precipitation patterns

The effect of the boundary conditions on the simulation of the 4 November 1966 storm over Italy

This study analyses the extreme event which took place on 4 November 1966, when a storm produced intense and persistent precipitation over northern and central Italy and an extreme surge in the northern Adriatic Sea, causing casualties and huge damages. Numerical simulations with a regional atmospheric model have been performed to reconstruct the phenomenology of the event. Results have been compared with observations. This study shows that the choice of the global fields for initial and boundary conditions is crucial for the quality of the reconstruction. The simulation is reasonably accurate if they are extracted from the NCEP re-analysis, while it is not satisfactory if ERA-40 data are used, though fields have a higher resolution in the ERA-40 than in the NCEP set of data. The internal physics of the model plays a smaller role in the reproduction of the dynamics of the event

OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE ON DEEP CONVECTION: CASE STUDY AND SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS

The non hydrostatic convection resolving model MOLOCH is employed in order to evaluate its capability to realistically simulate the evolution of a mesoscale convective system responsible for an episode of heavy rainfall and flood over southeastern France (Gard event). Numerical experiments indicate large sensitivity of precipitation amounts and distribution, due to different cell organization and propagation, to the specification of the initial conditions. Further experiments, aimed at studying the role played by the orography in triggering the convection and controlling its evolution, have been performed in order to characterize sensitivity to ambient wind and orography. Although the convective system remained almost stationary for many hours with maximum precipitation located at some distance upstream of the mountain main slope, simulations demonstrate that the presence of the orographic barrier is essential for both triggering and maintaining the mesoscale convective system. The intensity of precipitation turns out to be sensitive to small variations of the mean meridional wind component

Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs. This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (S2S) project database

A database containing sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts from 11 operational centres is available to the research community and will help advance our understanding of the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range. Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range, a sub-seasonal prediction (S2S) research project has been established by the World Weather Research Program/World Climate Research Program. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database, containing sub-seasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3-weeks behind real-time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modelled in part on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium range forecasts (up to 15 days). The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range that has been considered for a long time as a “desert of predictability”. In particular, this database will help identify common successes and shortcomings in the model simulation and prediction of sources of sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability. For instance, a preliminary study suggests that the S2S models underestimate significantly the amplitude of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The S2S database represents also an important tool for case studies of extreme events. For instance, a multi-model combination of S2S models displays higher probability of a landfall over Vanuatu islands 2 to 3 weeks before tropical cyclone Pam devastated the islands in March 2015

Tide-surge-wave modelling and forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea with focus on the Italian coast

A tide-surge-wave modelling system, called Kassandra, was developed for the Mediterranean Sea. It consists of a 3-D finite element hydrodynamic model (SHYFEM), including a tidal model and a third generation finite element spectral wave model (WWMII) coupled to the hydrodynamic model. The numerical grid of the hydrodynamic and wave models covers the whole Mediterranean with variable resolution. The comparison with coastal tide gauge stations along the Italian peninsula results in a root sum square error for the main tidal components equal to 1.44 cm. The operational implementation of the Kassandra storm surge system through the use of a high resolution meteorological model chain (GFS, BOLAM, MOLOCH) allows accurate forecast of total water level and wave characteristics. The root mean square error for the first day of forecast is 5 cm for the total water level and 22 cm for the significant wave height. Simulation results indicate that the use of a 3-D approach with a depth-varying loading factor and the inclusion of the non-linear interaction between tides and surge improve significantly the model performance in the Italian coast