Refinements in the use of equivalent latitude for assimilating sporadic inhomogeneous stratospheric tracer observations, 2: Precise altitude-resolved information about transport of Pinatubo aerosol to very high latitude

International audienceFrom high latitude lidar observations, quite precise information is extracted about the temporal evolution and vertical distribution of volcanic aerosol in the high latitude lower stratosphere following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Irreversible mixing of lower stratospheric aerosol, to the arctic pole during early 1992, is demonstrated, as a function of potential temperature and time. This work complements previous studies, which either identify vortex intrusions - without demonstrating irreversible transport, or use lower resolution satellite observations. The observed transport is associated tentatively with the vortex disturbance during late January, 1992. A very large number of high resolution lidar observations of Mount Pinatubo aerosol are analysed, without any data averaging. Averaging in measurement or analysis can cause tracer mixing to be overestimated. Averaging in the analysis can also require assumptions about which quantity has the dominant error (in this case, the equivalent latitude coordinate or the measurement), and which part of the data contains real structure. The method below attempts to avoid such assumptions

Interannual variability of tropospheric composition:the influence of changes in emissions, meteorology and clouds

We have run a chemistry transport model (CTM) to systematically examine the drivers of interannual variability of tropospheric composition during 1996-2000. This period was characterised by anomalous meteorological conditions associated with the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 and intense wildfires, which produced a large amount of pollution. On a global scale, changing meteorology (winds, temperatures, humidity and clouds) is found to be the most important factor driving interannual variability of NO2 and ozone on the timescales considered. Changes in stratosphere-troposphere exchange, which are largely driven by meteorological variability, are found to play a particularly important role in driving ozone changes. The strong influence of emissions on NO2 and ozone interannual variability is largely confined to areas where intense biomass burning events occur. For CO, interannual variability is almost solely driven by emission changes, while for OH meteorology dominates, with the radiative influence of clouds being a very strong contributor. Through a simple attribution analysis for 1996-2000 we conclude that changing cloudiness drives 25% of the interannual variability of OH over Europe by affecting shortwave radiation. Over Indonesia this figure is as high as 71%. Changes in cloudiness contribute a small but non-negligible amount (up to 6%) to the interannual variability of ozone over Europe and Indonesia. This suggests that future assessments of trends in tropospheric oxidizing capacity should account for interannual variability in cloudiness, a factor neglected in many previous studies

Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets

International audienceWe present the chemistry-climate model UMCAM in which a relatively detailed tropospheric chemical module has been incorporated into the UK Met Office's Unified Model version 4.5. We obtain good agreements between the modelled ozone/nitrogen species and a range of observations including surface ozone measurements, ozone sonde data, and some aircraft campaigns. Four 2100 calculations assess model responses to projected changes of anthropogenic emissions (SRES A2), climate change (due to doubling CO2), and idealised climate change-associated changes in biogenic emissions (i.e. 50% increase of isoprene emission and doubling emissions of soil-NOx). The global tropospheric ozone burden increases significantly for all the 2100 A2 simulations, with the largest response caused by the increase of anthropogenic emissions. Climate change has diverse impacts on O3 and its budgets through changes in circulation and meteorological variables. Increased water vapour causes a substantial ozone reduction especially in the tropical lower troposphere (>10 ppbv reduction over the tropical ocean). On the other hand, an enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone, which increases by 80% due to doubling CO2, contributes to ozone increases in the extratropical free troposphere which subsequently propagate to the surface. Projected higher temperatures favour ozone chemical production and PAN decomposition which lead to high surface ozone levels in certain regions. Enhanced convection transports ozone precursors more rapidly out of the boundary layer resulting in an increase of ozone production in the free troposphere. Lightning-produced NOx increases by about 22% in the doubled CO2 climate and contributes to ozone production. The response to the increase of isoprene emissions shows that the change of ozone is largely determined by background NOx levels: high NOx environment increases ozone production; isoprene emitting regions with low NOx levels see local ozone decreases, and increase of ozone levels in the remote region due to the influence of PAN chemistry. The calculated ozone changes in response to a 50% increase of isoprene emissions are in the range of between ?8 ppbv to 6 ppbv. Doubling soil-NOx emissions will increase tropospheric ozone considerably, with up to 5 ppbv in source regions

Winter Conditions Influence Biological Responses of Migrating Hummingbirds

Conserving biological diversity given ongoing environmental changes requires the knowledge of how organisms respond biologically to these changes; however, we rarely have this information. This data deficiency can be addressed with coordinated monitoring programs that provide field data across temporal and spatial scales and with process-based models, which provide a method for predicting how species, in particular migrating species that face different conditions across their range, will respond to climate change. We evaluate whether environmental conditions in the wintering grounds of broad-tailed hummingbirds influence physiological and behavioral attributes of their migration. To quantify winter ground conditions, we used operative temperature as a proxy for physiological constraint, and precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as surrogates of resource availability. We measured four biological response variables: molt stage, timing of arrival at stopover sites, body mass, and fat. Consistent with our predictions, we found that birds migrating north were in earlier stages of molt and arrived at stopover sites later when NDVI was low. These results indicate that wintering conditions impact the timing and condition of birds as they migrate north. In addition, our results suggest that biologically informed environmental surrogates provide a valuable tool for predicting how climate variability across years influences the animal populations

Reassessment of causes of ozone column variability following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo using a nudged CCM

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo produced the largest loading of stratospheric sulphate aerosol in the twentieth century. This heated the tropical lower stratosphere, affecting stratospheric circulation, and provided enhanced surface area for heterogeneous chemistry. These factors combined to produce record low values of "global" total ozone column. Though well studied, there remains some uncertainty about the attribution of this low ozone, with contributions from both chemical and dynamical effects. We take a complementary approach to previous studies, nudging the potential temperature and horizontal winds in the new UKCA chemistry climate model to reproduce the atmospheric response and assess the impact on global total ozone. We then combine model runs and observations to distinguish between chemical and dynamical effects. To estimate the effects of increased heterogeneous chemistry on ozone we compare runs with volcanically enhanced and background surface aerosol density. The modelled depletion of global ozone peaks at about 7 DU in early 1993, in good agreement with values obtained from observations. We subtract the modelled aerosol induced ozone loss from the observed ozone record and attribute the remaining variability to `dynamical' effects. The remaining variability is dominated by the QBO. We also examine tropical and mid-latitude ozone, diagnosing contributions from El Niño in the tropics and identifying dynamically driven low ozone in northern mid-latitudes, which we interpret as possible evidence of changes in the QBO. We conclude that, on a global scale, the record lows of extra-polar ozone are produced by the increased heterogeneous chemistry, although there is evidence for dynamics produced low ozone in certain regions, including northern mid-latitudes

A growing disconnection from nature is evident in cultural products

Human connection with nature is widely believed to be in decline, even though empirical evidence on the magnitude and temporal pattern of the change is scarce. Studying works of popular culture in English throughout the 20th century and later, we document a cultural shift away from nature, beginning in the 1950s. Since then, references to nature have been decreasing steadily in fiction, song lyrics, and film storylines. No parallel decline is observed in references to the human-made environment. These findings are cause for concern, not only because they imply foregone benefits from engagement with nature, but also because cultural products are agents of socialization that can evoke curiosity, respect, and concern for the natural world

Sensitivity of the Mid-Winter Arctic Stratosphere to QBO Width in a Simplified Chemistry-Climate Model

In the stratosphere, equatorial winds continually alternate between easterly (westward) and westerly (eastward). This phenomenon is called the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The average QBO cycle (Le. easterly to westerly to easterly) lasts approximately 27 months. Large-scale 'planetary' waves can only travel upward through the atmosphere when equatorial winds are westerly, and below a critical threshold. Thus, the amount of wave energy that reaches the middle atmosphere depends on the wind direction. When equatorial winds are easterly, wave energy is concentrated at higher latitudes, weakening the high-latitude eastward wind feature known as the 'polar jet' during the Northern Hemisphere winter season. Holton and Tan (1980) used atmospheric observations to show the dependence of the strength of the northern polar jet on the phase (easterly vs. westerly) of the QBO. This modeling study finds that the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) varies from one cycle to the next, and that variation in QBO width may exert equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the QBO wind direction. High latitude winds are weaker and ozone values are higher in a wide-QBO model simulation, as compared with a realistic simulation. This result implies that a relatively wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO

High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry

In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher

Ozone loss derived from balloon-borne tracer measurements in the 1999/2000 Arctic winter

Balloon-borne measurements of CFC11 (from the DIRAC in situ gas chromatograph and the DESCARTES grab sampler), ClO and O3 were made during the 1999/2000 Arctic winter as part of the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 campaign, based in Kiruna (Sweden). Here we present the CFC11 data from nine flights and compare them first with data from other instruments which flew during the campaign and then with the vertical distributions calculated by the SLIMCAT 3D CTM. We calculate ozone loss inside the Arctic vortex between late January and early March using the relation between CFC11 and O3 measured on the flights. The peak ozone loss (~1200ppbv) occurs in the 440-470K region in early March in reasonable agreement with other published empirical estimates. There is also a good agreement between ozone losses derived from three balloon tracer data sets used here. The magnitude and vertical distribution of the loss derived from the measurements is in good agreement with the loss calculated from SLIMCAT over Kiruna for the same days