A snakes and ladders representation of stock prices and returns

Snakes and ladders is an ancient Indian game of chance that offers amusement as well as a metaphor for life’s many ups and downs. Games offer useful and fun ways of conveying ideas as well as solution techniques and this game has considerable mathematical tractability. This note shows how snakes and ladders can be used to represent the ups and downs of share ownership and solve for fair values of a multistage project that pays fixed dividends at uncertain completion times and has random returns

Pliocene-Pleistocene marine cyclothems, Wanganui Basin, New Zealand: a lithostratigraphic framework

The Rangitikei River valley between Mangaweka and Vinegar Hill and the surrounding Ohingaiti region in eastern Wanganui Basin contains a late Pliocene to early Pleistocene (c. 2.6-1.7 Ma), c. 1100 m thick, southward-dipping (4-9deg.), marine cyclothemic succession. Twenty sedimentary cycles occur within the succession, each of which contains coarse-grained (siliciclastic sandstone and coquina) and fine-grained (siliciclastic siltstone) units. Nineteen of the cycles are assigned to the Rangitikei Group (new). Six new formations are defined within the Rangitikei Group, and their distribution in the Ohingaiti region is represented in a new geologic map. The new formations are named: Mangarere, Tikapu, Makohine, Orangipongo, Mangaonoho, and Vinegar Hill. Each formation comprises one or more cyclothems and includes a previously described and named distinctive basal horizon. Discrete sandstones, siltstones, and coquinas within formations are assigned member status and correspond to systems tracts in sequence stratigraphic nomenclature. The members provide the link between the new formational lithostratigraphy and the sequence stratigraphy of the Rangitikei Group. Base of cycle coquina members accumulated during episodes of sediment starvation associated with stratigraphic condensation on an open marine shelf during sea-level transgressions. Siltstone members accumulated in mid-shelf environments (50-100 m water depth) during sea-level highstands, whereas the overlying sandstone members are ascribed to inner shelf and shoreface environments (0-50 m water depth) and accumulated during falling eustatic sea-level conditions. Repetitive changes in water depth of 50-100 m magnitude are consistent with a glacio-eustatic origin for the cyclothems, which correspond to an interval of Earth history when successive glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere are known to have occurred. Moreover, the chronology of the Rangitikei River section indicates that Rangitikei Group cyclothems accumulated during short duration, 41 ka cycles in continental ice volume attributed to the dominance of the Milankovitch obliquity orbital parameter. The Ohingaiti region has simple postdepositional structure. The late Pliocene formations dip generally to the SSW between 4deg. and 9deg.. Discernible discordances of c. 1deg. between successively younger formations are attributed to synsedimentary tilting of the shelf concomitant with migration of the tectonic hingeline southward into the basin. The outcrop distribution of the Rangitikei Group is strongly influenced by this regional tilt and also by three major northeast-southwest oriented, high-angle reverse faults (Rauoterangi, Pakihikura, and Rangitikei Faults)

Modeling the dynamics of glacial cycles

This article is concerned with the dynamics of glacial cycles observed in the geological record of the Pleistocene Epoch. It focuses on a conceptual model proposed by Maasch and Saltzman [J. Geophys. Res.,95, D2 (1990), pp. 1955-1963], which is based on physical arguments and emphasizes the role of atmospheric CO2 in the generation and persistence of periodic orbits (limit cycles). The model consists of three ordinary differential equations with four parameters for the anomalies of the total global ice mass, the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the volume of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In this article, it is shown that a simplified two-dimensional symmetric version displays many of the essential features of the full model, including equilibrium states, limit cycles, their basic bifurcations, and a Bogdanov-Takens point that serves as an organizing center for the local and global dynamics. Also, symmetry breaking splits the Bogdanov-Takens point into two, with different local dynamics in their neighborhoods

Textural variations in Neogene pelagic carbonate ooze at DSDP Site 593, southern Tasman Sea, and their paleoceanographic implications

Changes in Neogene sediment texture in pelagic carbonate-rich oozes on the Challenger Plateau, southern Tasman Sea, are used to infer changes in depositional paleocurrent velocities. The most obvious record of textural change is in the mud:sand ratio. Increases in the sand content are inferred to indicate a general up-core trend towards increasing winnowing of sediments resulting from increasing flow velocity of Southern Component Intermediate Water (SCIW), the forerunner of Antarctic Intermediate Water. In particular, the intervals c. 19-14.5 Ma, c. 9.5-8 Ma, and after 5 Ma are suggested to be times of increased SCIW velocity and strong sediment winnowing. Within the mud fraction, the fine silt to coarse clay sizes from 15.6 to 2 µm make the greatest contribution to the sediments and are composed of nannofossil plates. During extreme winnowing events it is the fine silt to very coarse clay material (13-3 µm) within this range that is preferentially removed, suggesting the 10 µm cohesive silt boundary reported for siliciclastic sediments does not apply to calcitic skeletal grains. The winnowed sediment comprises coccolithophore placoliths and spheres, represented by a mode at 4-7 µm. Further support for seafloor winnowing is gained from the presence in Hole 593 of a condensed sedimentary section from c. 18 to 14 Ma where the sand content increases to c. 20% of the bulk sample. Associated with the condensed section is a 6 m thick orange unit representing sediments subjected to particularly oxygen-rich, late early to early middle Miocene SCIW. Together these are inferred to indicate increased SCIW velocity resulting in winnowed sediment associated with faster arrival of oxygen-rich surface water subducted to form SCIW. Glacial development of Antarctica has been recorded from many deep-sea sites, with extreme glacials providing the mechanism to increase watermass flow. Miocene glacial zones Mi1b-Mi6 are identified in an associated oxygen isotope record from Hole 593, and correspond with times of particularly invigorated paleocirculation, bottom winnowing, and sediment textural changes

Anatomy and origin of authochthonous late Pleistocene forced regression deposits, east Coromandel inner shelf, New Zealand: implications for the development and definition of the regressive systems tract

High-resolution seismic reflection data from the east Coromandel coast, New Zealand, provide details of the sequence stratigraphy beneath an autochthonous, wave dominated inner shelf margin during the late Quaternary (0-140 ka). Since c. 1 Ma, the shelf has experienced limited subsidence and fluvial sediment input, producing a depositional regime characterised by extensive reworking of coastal and shelf sediments during glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations. It appears that only one complete fifth-order (c. 100 000 yr) depositional sequence is preserved beneath the inner shelf, the late Pleistocene Waihi Sequence, suggesting any earlier Quaternary sequences were mainly cannibalised into successively younger sequences. The predominantly Holocene-age Whangamata Sequence is also evident in seismic data and modern coastal deposits, and represents an incomplete depositional sequence in its early stages of formation. A prominent aspect of the sequence stratigraphy off parts of the east Coromandel coast is the presence of forced regressive deposits (FRDs) within the regressive systems tract (RST) of the late Pleistocene Waihi Sequence. The FRDs are interpreted to represent regressive barrier-shoreface sands that were sourced from erosion and onshore reworking of underlying Pleistocene sediments during the period of slow falling sea level from isotope stages 5 to 2 (c. 112-18 ka). The RST is volumetrically the most significant depositional component of the Waihi Sequence; the regressive deposits form a 15-20 m thick, sharp-based, tabular seismic unit that downsteps and progrades continuously across the inner shelf. The sequence boundary for the Waihi Sequence is placed at the most prominent, regionally correlative, and chronostratigraphically significant surface, namely an erosional unconformity characterised in many areas by large incised valleys that was generated above the RST. This unconformity is interpreted as a surface of maximum subaerial erosion generated during the last glacial lowstand (c. 18 ka). Although the base of the RST is associated with a prominent regressive surface of erosion, this is not used as the sequence boundary as it is highly diachronous and difficult to identify and correlate where FRDs are not developed. The previous highstand deposits are limited to subaerial barrier deposits preserved behind several modern Holocene barriers along the coast, while the transgressive systems tract is preserved locally as incised-valley fill deposits beneath the regressive surface of erosion at the base of the RST. Many documented late Pleistocene RSTs have been actively sourced from fluvial systems feeding the shelf and building basinward-thickening, often stacked wedges of FRDs, for which the name allochthonous FRDs is suggested. The Waihi Sequence RST is unusual in that it appears to have been sourced predominantly from reworking of underlying shelf sediments, and thus represents an autochthonous FRD. Autochthonous FRDs are also present on the Forster-Tuncurry shelf in southeast Australia, and may be a common feature in other shelf settings with low subsidence and low sediment supply rates, provided shelf gradients are not too steep, and an underlying source of unconsolidated shelf sediments is available to source FRDs. The preservation potential of such autochthonous FRDs in ancient deposits is probably low given that they are likely to be cannibalised during subsequent sea-level falls

Student- and school-level belonging and commitment and student smoking, drinking and misbehaviour

Objectives: It has been suggested that students are healthier in schools where more students are committed to school. Previous research has examined this only using a proxy measure of value-added education (a measure of whether school-level attendance and attainment are higher than predicted by students’ social profile), finding associations with smoking tobacco, use of alcohol and illicit drugs, and violence. These findings do not provide direct insights into the associations between school-level aggregate student commitment and health behaviours, and may simply reflect the proxy measure being residually confounded by unmeasured student characteristics. We examined the previously used proxy measure of value-added education, as well as direct measures at the level of the school and the student of lack of student commitment to school to see whether these were associated with students’ self-reported smoking tobacco, alcohol use and school misbehaviour. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: A total of 40 schools in south-east England. Methods: Multi-level analyses. Results: There were associations between school- and student-level measures of lack of commitment to school and tobacco smoking, alcohol use and school misbehaviour outcomes, but the proxy measure of school-level commitment, value-added education, was not associated with these outcomes. A sensitivity analysis focused only on violent aspects of school misbehaviour found a pattern of associations identical to that found for the measure of misbehaviour. Conclusion: Our study provides the first direct evidence in support of the Theory of Human Functioning and School Organisation

A reference time scale for Site U1385 (Shackleton Site) on the SW Iberian Margin

Weproduced a composite depth scale and chronology for Site U1385 on the SWIberianMargin. Using log(Ca/Ti)measured by core scanning XRF at 1-cm resolution in all holes, a composite section was constructed to166.5 meter composite depth (mcd) that corrects for stretching and squeezing in each core. Oxygen isotopesof benthic foraminifera were correlated to a stacked d18O reference signal (LR04) to produce an oxygen isotopestratigraphy and age model.Variations in sediment color contain very strong precession signals at Site U1385, and the amplitude modulationof these cycles provides a powerful tool for developing an orbitally-tuned agemodel.We tuned the U1385 recordby correlating peaks in L* to the local summer insolation maxima at 37°N. The benthic d18O record of Site U1385,when placed on the tuned agemodel, generally agrees with other time scaleswithin their respective chronologicuncertainties.The age model is transferred to down-core data to produce a continuous time series of log(Ca/Ti) that reflectrelative changes of biogenic carbonate and detrital sediment. Biogenic carbonate increases during interglacialand interstadial climate states and decreases during glacial and stadial periods. Much of the variance in thelog(Ca/Ti) is explained by a linear combination of orbital frequencies (precession, tilt and eccentricity), whereasthe residual signal reflects suborbital climate variability. The strong correlation between suborbital log(Ca/Ti)variability and Greenland temperature over the last glacial cycle at Site U1385 suggests that this signal can beused as a proxy for millennial-scale climate variability over the past 1.5 Ma.Millennial climate variability, as expressed by log(Ca/Ti) at Site U1385, was a persistent feature of glacial climatesover the past 1.5Ma, including glacial periods of the early Pleistocene (‘41-kyrworld’)when boundary conditionsdiffered significantly from those of the late Pleistocene (‘100-kyr world’). Suborbital variability was suppressedduring interglacial stages and enhanced during glacial periods, especially when benthic d18O surpassed ~3.3–3.5‰. Each glacial inception was marked by appearance of strong millennial variability and each deglaciatio

History of oceanic front development in the New Zealand sector of the Southern Ocean during the Cenozoic--a synthesis

The New Zealand sector of the Southern Ocean (NZSSO) has opened about the Indian-Pacific spreading ridge throughout the Cenozoic. Today the NZSSO is characterised by broad zonal belts of antarctic (cold), subantarctic (cool), and subtropical (warm) surface-water masses separated by prominent oceanic fronts: the Subtropical Front (STF) c. 43deg.S, Subantarctic Front (SAF) c. 50deg.S, and Antarctic Polar Front (AAPF) c. 60deg.S. Despite a meagre database, the broad pattern of Cenozoic evolution of these fronts is reviewed from the results of Deep Sea Drilling Project-based studies of sediment facies, microfossil assemblages and diversity, and stable isotope records, as well as from evidence in onland New Zealand Cenozoic sequences. Results are depicted schematically on seven paleogeographic maps covering the NZSSO at 10 m.y. intervals through the Cenozoic. During the Paleocene and most of the Eocene (65-35 Ma), the entire NZSSO was under the influence of warm to cool subtropical waters, with no detectable oceanic fronts. In the latest Eocene (c. 35 Ma), a proto-STF is shown separating subantarctic and subtropical waters offshore from Antarctica, near 65deg.S paleolatitude. During the earliest Oligocene, this front was displaced northwards by development of an AAPF following major global cooling and biotic turnover associated with ice sheet expansion to sea level on East Antarctica. Early Oligocene full opening (c. 31 Ma) of the Tasmanian gateway initiated vigorous proto-circum-Antarctic flow of cold/cool waters, possibly through a West Antarctic seaway linking the southern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, including detached northwards "jetting" onto the New Zealand plateau where condensation and unconformity development was widespread in cool-water carbonate facies. Since this time, a broad tripartite division of antarctic, subantarctic, and subtropical waters has existed in the NZSSO, including possible development of a proto-SAF within the subantarctic belt. In the Early-early Middle Miocene (25-15 Ma), warm subtropical waters expanded southwards into the northern NZSSO, possibly associated with reduced ice volume on East Antarctica but particularly with restriction of the Indonesian gateway and redirection of intensified warm surface flows southwards into the Tasman Sea, as well as complete opening of the Drake gateway by 23 Ma allowing more complete decoupling of cool circum-Antarctic flow from the subtropical waters. During the late Middle-Late Miocene (15-5 Ma), both the STF and SAF proper were established in their present relative positions across and about the Campbell Plateau, respectively, accompanying renewed ice buildup on East Antarctica and formation of a permanent ice sheet on West Antarctica, as well as generally more expansive and intensified circum-Antarctic flow. The ultimate control on the history of oceanic front development in the NZSSO has been plate tectonics through its influence on the paleogeographic changes of the Australian-New Zealand-Antarctic continents and their intervening oceanic basins, the timing of opening and closing of critical seaways, the potential for submarine ridges and plateaus to exert some bathymetric control on the location of fronts, and the evolving ice budget on the Antarctic continent. The broad trends of the Cenozoic climate curve for New Zealand deduced from fossil evidence in the uplifted marine sedimentary record correspond well to the principal paleoceanographic events controlling the evolution and migration of the oceanic fronts in the NZSSO

Circulating Cell-Free DNA in Dogs with Mammary Tumors: Short and Long Fragments and Integrity Index

Circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) has been considered an interesting diagnostic/prognostic plasma biomarker in tumor-bearing subjects. In cancer patients, cfDNA can hypothetically derive from tumor necrosis/apoptosis, lysed circulating cells, and some yet unrevealed mechanisms of active release. This study aimed to preliminarily analyze cfDNA in dogs with canine mammary tumors (CMTs). Forty-four neoplastic, 17 non-neoplastic disease-bearing, and 15 healthy dogs were recruited. Necrosis and apoptosis were also assessed as potential source of cfDNA on 78 CMTs diagnosed from the 44 dogs. The cfDNA fragments and integrity index significantly differentiated neoplastic versus non-neoplastic dogs (P<0.05), and allowed the distinction between benign and malignant lesions (P<0.05). Even if without statistical significance, the amount of cfDNA was also affected by tumor necrosis and correlated with tumor size and apoptotic markers expression. A significant (P<0.01) increase of Bcl-2 in malignant tumors was observed, and in metastatic CMTs the evasion of apoptosis was also suggested. This study, therefore, provides evidence that cfDNA could be a diagnostic marker in dogs carrying mammary nodules suggesting that its potential application in early diagnostic procedures should be further investigated