Simulating the hydrology of small coastal ecosystems in conditions of limited data

Hydrology / Simulation / Ecosystems / Lagoons / Estuaries / Irrigation effects / Sri Lanka / South Africa / Karagan Lagoon / Bundala Lagoon

Incorporating river morphological changes to flood risk assessment: uncertainties, methodology and application

Risk zonation maps are mostly derived from design floods which propagate through the study area. The respective delineation of inundated flood plains is a fundamental input for the flood risk assessment of exposed objects. It is implicitly assumed that the river morphology will not vary, even though it is obvious that the river bed elevation can quickly and drastically change during flood events. The objectives of this study were to integrate the river bed dynamics into the flood risk assessment procedure and to quantify associated uncertainties. The proposed concept was applied to the River Ill in the Western Austrian Alps. In total, 138 flood and associated sediment transport scenarios were considered, simulated and illustrated for the main river stem. The calculated morphological changes of the river bed at the moment of peak flow provided a basis to estimate the variability of possible water surface levels and inundation lines which should be incorporated into flood hazard assessment. In the context of vulnerability assessment an advanced methodological approach to assess flood risk based on damage probability functions is described

Future hydropower production in the Lower Zambezi under possible climate change influence

Hydropower is the most important energy source in Mozambique and many other countries in southern Africa. Substantial hydropower development is planned for the Lower Zambezi for the next decades, with regional importance due to integration into the Southern African Power Pool. For such a long-term development, the possible impact of climate change on the future production is of essential interest. The objective of the presented study is to assess hydropower generation in the 21st century for a future hydropower development scenario under two climate scenarios. The two climate scenarios represent a future wetting climate and a future drying climate, both with considerable warming, and are based on bias-corrected data of two recent Global Climate Models. All hydro-meteorological input data are publicly available from an online decision support system, the Zambezi DSS. The future hydropower scenario considers the extension of the existing Cahora Bassa plant and three planned facilities downstream, Mphanda Nkuwa, Boroma and Lupata. Hydropower modelling for this cascade of reservoirs and hydropower plants is carried out with the HEC-ResSim model. Modelling results show a strong impact of precipitation projections on simulated future hydropower generation. With a wetting climate scenario, a marked increase of hydropower production of +11% for a near-future period (2021–2050) and +9% for a far-future period (2071-2100) are projected, as compared with simulation results for a historic reference scenario. In a drying climate, hydropower generation decreases by -6% (near future) and -13% (far future). The climate change impact is stronger for the large extended Cahora Bassa plant than for the smaller downstream facilities. The results show the importance of considering climate risk in technical design and financial assessment of hydropower projects in the region.Keywords: Zambezi River, hydropower development, climate change, hydropower modelling, water resource

Создание опытного образца геохода. Временной фактор изготовления компонентов и их сборки в конечное изделие

Изложен опыт реализации проекта №02.G25.31.0076 в рамках открытого конкурса Министерства образования и науки РФ и Постановления Правительства РФ №218 от 09.04.2010 г. Дано описание временных рамок реализации проекта, в частности, работы над созданием опытного образца щитового проходческого агрегата - геохода, диаметром 3,2 м. В настоящее время проект находится в стадии завершения. Главная идея статьи - поделиться опытом создания новой техники и показать, сколько времени затрачивается на решение тех или иных производственных процессов по созданию опытных образцов горных машин на примере геохода. Данная статья будет полезна организациям, планирующим участие в реализации проектов по созданию высокотехнологичного производства, и может являться ориентиром для составления Плана-графика реализации подобных проектов. Автор статьи лично принимал участие в реализации данного проекта и принимал решения по планированию и организации работ.The experience of the project №02.G25.31.0076 is presented. The project was operated in the framework of the open competition of the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation and the RF Government Decree №218 from 09.04.2010. Description of the time frame of the project implementation, particularly the activities of the TBM prototype creation - geokhod, with a diameter of 3.2 m. is presented. Currently, the project is closer to complete. The main idea of the article is to share the experience of creating new technology and show how much time is spent on the decision of production processes to create prototypes of mining machines on the example of a geokhod. This article will be useful for organizations planning to participate in the implementation of projects to create high-tech production, and can be a guide for drawing up a Plan-schedule of such projects. The author of this article personally participated in the implementation of this project and made decisions on planning and organization of activities

Resonant nonlinear magneto-optical effects in atoms

In this article, we review the history, current status, physical mechanisms, experimental methods, and applications of nonlinear magneto-optical effects in atomic vapors. We begin by describing the pioneering work of Macaluso and Corbino over a century ago on linear magneto-optical effects (in which the properties of the medium do not depend on the light power) in the vicinity of atomic resonances, and contrast these effects with various nonlinear magneto-optical phenomena that have been studied both theoretically and experimentally since the late 1960s. In recent years, the field of nonlinear magneto-optics has experienced a revival of interest that has led to a number of developments, including the observation of ultra-narrow (1-Hz) magneto-optical resonances, applications in sensitive magnetometry, nonlinear magneto-optical tomography, and the possibility of a search for parity- and time-reversal-invariance violation in atoms.Comment: 51 pages, 23 figures, to appear in Rev. Mod. Phys. in Oct. 2002, Figure added, typos corrected, text edited for clarit

Dust Devil Tracks

Dust devils that leave dark- or light-toned tracks are common on Mars and they can also be found on the Earth’s surface. Dust devil tracks (hereinafter DDTs) are ephemeral surface features with mostly sub-annual lifetimes. Regarding their size, DDT widths can range between ∼1 m and ∼1 km, depending on the diameter of dust devil that created the track, and DDT lengths range from a few tens of meters to several kilometers, limited by the duration and horizontal ground speed of dust devils. DDTs can be classified into three main types based on their morphology and albedo in contrast to their surroundings; all are found on both planets: (a) dark continuous DDTs, (b) dark cycloidal DDTs, and (c) bright DDTs. Dark continuous DDTs are the most common type on Mars. They are characterized by their relatively homogenous and continuous low albedo surface tracks. Based on terrestrial and martian in situ studies, these DDTs most likely form when surficial dust layers are removed to expose larger-grained substrate material (coarse sands of ≥500 μm in diameter). The exposure of larger-grained materials changes the photometric properties of the surface; hence leading to lower albedo tracks because grain size is photometrically inversely proportional to the surface reflectance. However, although not observed so far, compositional differences (i.e., color differences) might also lead to albedo contrasts when dust is removed to expose substrate materials with mineralogical differences. For dark continuous DDTs, albedo drop measurements are around 2.5 % in the wavelength range of 550–850 nm on Mars and around 0.5 % in the wavelength range from 300–1100 nm on Earth. The removal of an equivalent layer thickness around 1 μm is sufficient for the formation of visible dark continuous DDTs on Mars and Earth. The next type of DDTs, dark cycloidal DDTs, are characterized by their low albedo pattern of overlapping scallops. Terrestrial in situ studies imply that they are formed when sand-sized material that is eroded from the outer vortex area of a dust devil is redeposited in annular patterns in the central vortex region. This type of DDT can also be found in on Mars in orbital image data, and although in situ studies are lacking, terrestrial analog studies, laboratory work, and numerical modeling suggest they have the same formation mechanism as those on Earth. Finally, bright DDTs are characterized by their continuous track pattern and high albedo compared to their undisturbed surroundings. They are found on both planets, but to date they have only been analyzed in situ on Earth. Here, the destruction of aggregates of dust, silt and sand by dust devils leads to smooth surfaces in contrast to the undisturbed rough surfaces surrounding the track. The resulting change in photometric properties occurs because the smoother surfaces have a higher reflectance compared to the surrounding rough surface, leading to bright DDTs. On Mars, the destruction of surficial dust-aggregates may also lead to bright DDTs. However, higher reflective surfaces may be produced by other formation mechanisms, such as dust compaction by passing dust devils, as this may also cause changes in photometric properties. On Mars, DDTs in general are found at all elevations and on a global scale, except on the permanent polar caps. DDT maximum areal densities occur during spring and summer in both hemispheres produced by an increase in dust devil activity caused by maximum insolation. Regionally, dust devil densities vary spatially likely controlled by changes in dust cover thicknesses and substrate materials. This variability makes it difficult to infer dust devil activity from DDT frequencies. Furthermore, only a fraction of dust devils leave tracks. However, DDTs can be used as proxies for dust devil lifetimes and wind directions and speeds, and they can also be used to predict lander or rover solar panel clearing events. Overall, the high DDT frequency in many areas on Mars leads to drastic albedo changes that affect large-scale weather patterns

Midlands Cadences: Narrative Voices in the Work of Alan Sillitoe

This paper will examine excerpts from a range of Alan Sillitoe’s prose fiction, most notably Saturday Night and Sunday Morning (1958) and short stories from the collection The Loneliness of the Long-Distance Runner (1958), via a comparative exploration of the texts’ representations of Midlands English demotic. Both texts enact Bakhtin’s notion of novelistic dialogism and find much expressive capital in the tension between discourses: between the oral and the written. Indeed, it could be argued that much of Sillitoe’s work functions as a direct challenge to dominant notions of the literary. The narrative discourse attempts to trace a link between the quotidian experience of the Midlands English working classes represented and the demotic language which they speak. His technique also explores the link between language and sensibility; i.e. verbal articulacy need not be a limit to expression of a character’s distinctive identity. In contrast to the more radical techniques of novelists like James Kelman and Irvine Welsh, all instances of phonetically-rendered demotic remain imprisoned by what Joyce called ‘perverted commas’ – as direct speech. However, the diegetic narrative discourse itself is redolent of registers rooted in 1950s English working class life. The texts also contain different methods of representing their protagonists’ consciousness through their own idiolect. In Saturday Night and Sunday Morning, this is evidenced by the use of the second person ‘you’. It functions simultaneously as a representation of Seaton’s consciousness in the oral register which he might choose to articulate it, and as a dialogic ‘sideways glance’ at the reader and assumed shared experience. The second is more redolent of internal monologue, using the first-person form (as seen in the homodiegetic narration of the second novel); crucially, though, it remains in Standard English, if explicitly orientated towards oral register. Sillitoe’s is a novelistic discourse which refuses to normalise itself to accord with the conventions of classic realism, and as such prefigures the ambitions of many contemporary writers who incline their narrative voices towards the oral – asserting the right of a character’s dialect/idiolect to be the principal register of the narrative. The paper will demonstrate this thesis through the ideas of Bakhtin, and through an analytical taxonomy derived from literary stylistics. It aims to propose a model which can be used to analyse and explore any fiction which has been labelled as ‘working class’, and asserts that such an approach leads to a more principled characterisation of working class fiction (based on its use of language) than current literary-critical discussions based simply on cultural/social context and biography

Feasibility and initial experience of assessment of mechanical dyssynchrony using cardiovascular magnetic resonance and semi-automatic border detection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The systolic dyssynchrony index (SDI) has been introduced as a measure of mechanical dyssynchrony using three-dimensional echocardiography to select patients who may benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, three-dimensional echocardiography may be inadequate in a number of patients with suboptimal acoustic window and no single echocardiographic measure of dyssynchrony has proven to be of value in selecting patients for CRT. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the value of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) for the assessment of the SDI in patients with reduced LV function as well as in healthy controls using semi-automatic border tracking.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated a total of 45 patients including 35 patients (65 ± 8 years) with reduced LV function (EF 30 ± 11%) and a wide QRS complex as well as 10 control subjects (42 ± 21 years, EF 70 ± 11%). For cine imaging a standard SSFP imaging sequence was used with a temporal resolution of 40 frames per RR-interval. Quantitative analysis was performed off-line using a software prototype for semi-automatic border detection. Global volumes, ejection fraction and the SDI were calculated in each subject. SDI was compared with standard echocardiographic parameters of dyssynchrony.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean SDI differed significantly between patients (14 ± 5%) and controls (5 ± 2%, p < 0.001). An exponential correlation between the EF and the SDI was observed (r = -0.84; p < 0.001). In addition, a significant association between the SDI and the standard deviation of time to peak systolic motion of 12 LV segments (Ts-SD) determined by echocardiography was observed (r = 0.66, p = 0.002).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this preliminary study suggest that CMR with semi-automatic border detection may be useful for the assessment of mechanical dyssynchrony in patients with reduced LV function.</p> <p>No trial registration due to recruitment period between October 2004 and November 2006</p

[(18)F] fluoromisonidazole and [(18)F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in response evaluation after chemo-/radiotherapy of non-small-cell lung cancer: a feasibility study

BACKGROUND: Experimental and clinical evidence suggest that hypoxia in solid tumours reduces their sensitivity to conventional treatment modalities modulating response to ionizing radiation or chemotherapeutic agents. The aim of the present study was to show the feasibility of determining radiotherapeutically relevant hypoxia and early tumour response by ([(18)F] Fluoromisonidazole (FMISO) and [(18)F]-2-fluoro-2'-deoxyglucose (FDG) PET. METHODS: Eight patients with non-small-cell lung cancer underwent PET scans. Tumour tissue oxygenation was measured with FMISO PET, whereas tumour glucose metabolism was measured with FDG PET. All PET studies were carried out with an ECAT EXACT 922/47(® )scanner with an axial field of view of 16.2 cm. FMISO PET consisted of one static scan of the relevant region, performed 180 min after intravenous administration of the tracer. The acquisition and reconstruction parameters were as follows: 30 min emission scanning and 4 min transmission scanning with 68-Ge/68-Ga rod sources. The patients were treated with chemotherapy, consisting of 2 cycles of gemcitabine (1200 mg/m(2)) and vinorelbine (30 mg/m(2)) followed by concurrent radio- (2.0 Gy/d; total dose 66.0 Gy) and chemotherapy with gemcitabine (300–500 mg/m(2)) every two weeks. FMISO PET and FDG PET were performed in all patients 3 days before and 14 days after finishing chemotherapy. RESULTS: FMISO PET allowed for the qualitative and quantitative definition of hypoxic sub-areas which may correspond to a localization of local recurrences. In addition, changes in FMISO and FDG PET measure the early response to therapy, and in this way, may predict freedom from disease, as well as overall survival. CONCLUSION: These preliminary results warrant validation in larger trials. If confirmed, several novel treatment strategies may be considered, including the early use of PET to evaluate the effectiveness of the selected therapy