Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz

Der einzelne Mensch ist im Lebensverlauf erheblichen biometrischen, ökonomischen, familiären und politischen Risiken ausgesetzt. Viele meinen, diese wären in den letzten Jahren größer geworden. Haben wir die richtigen Institutionen, um diese Risiken effizient abzudecken? Unter Institutionen verstehen wir individuelles Sparen, familiäre Hilfe, private Versicherungen und schließlich den Staat mit seinen Sozialversicherungen. Wo und wann funktionieren diese Institutionen? Wo und wann nicht? Was muss man tun, um sie zu verbessern? Wie sieht modernes "Social Risk Management" aus? Der erste Teil dieses Übersichtsbeitrags skizziert die wirtschaftstheoretischen Grundlagen des Sparverhaltens, der Portefeuillewahl und der Versicherungsnachfrage. Im Hauptteil werden die empirischen Befunde gesammelt, um im dritten Teil wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen zu ziehen

Target Zones in History and Theory: Lessons from an Austro-Hungarian Experiment (1896-1914)

The first known experiment with an exchange rate band took place in Austria- Hungary between 1896 and 1914. The rationale for introducing this policy rested on precisely those intuitions that the modern literature has emphasized: the band was designed to secure both exchange rate stability and monetary policy autonomy. However, unlike more recent experiences, such as the ERM, this policy was not undermined by credibility problems. The episode provides an ideal testing ground for some important ideas in modern macroeconomics: specifically, can formal rules, when faithfully adhered to, provide policy makers with some advantages such as short term autonomy? First, we find that a credible band has a "microeconomic" influence on exchange rate stability. By reducing uncertainty, a credible fluctuation band improves the quality of expectations, a channel that has been neglected in the modern literature. Second, we show that the standard test of the basic target zone model is flawed and develop an alternative methodology. We believe that these findings shed a new light on the economics of exchange rate bands

Simplicial quantum dynamics

Present-day quantum field theory can be regularized by a decomposition into quantum simplices. This replaces the infinite-dimensional Hilbert space by a high-dimensional spinor space and singular canonical Lie groups by regular spin groups. It radically changes the uncertainty principle for small distances. Gaugeons, including the gravitational, are represented as bound fermion-pairs, and space-time curvature as a singular organized limit of quantum non-commutativity. Keywords: Quantum logic, quantum set theory, quantum gravity, quantum topology, simplicial quantization.Comment: 25 pages. 1 table. Conference of the International Association for Relativistic Dynamics, Taiwan, 201

Cluster Performance reconsidered: Structure, Linkages and Paths in the German Biotechnology Industry, 1996-2003

This paper addresses the evolution of biotechnology clusters in Germany between 1996 and 2003, paying particular attention to their respective composition in terms of venture capital, basic science institutions and biotechnology firms. Drawing upon the significance of co-location of "money and ideas", the literature stressing the importance of a cluster's openness and external linkages, and the path dependency debate, the paper aims to analyse how certain cluster characteristics correspond with its overall performance. After identifying different cluster types, we investigate their internal and external interconnectivity in comparative manner and draw on changes in cluster composition. Our results indicate that the structure, i.e. to which group the cluster belongs, and the openness towards external knowledge flows deliver merely unsystematic indications with regard to a cluster's overall success. Its ability to change composition towards a more balanced ratio of science and capital over time, on the other hand, turns out as a key explanatory factor. Hence, the dynamic perspective proves effective illuminating cluster growth and performance, where our explorative findings provide a promising avenue for further evolutionary research

Relativistic and Radiative Energy Shifts for Rydberg States

We investigate relativistic and quantum electrodynamic effects for highly-excited bound states in hydrogenlike systems (Rydberg states). In particular, hydrogenic one-loop Bethe logarithms are calculated for all circular states (l = n-1) in the range 20 <= n <= 60 and successfully compared to an existing asymptotic expansion for large principal quantum number n. We provide accurate expansions of the Bethe logarithm for large values of n, for S, P and circular Rydberg states. These three expansions are expected to give any Bethe logarithms for principal quantum number n > 20 to an accuracy of five to seven decimal digits, within the specified manifolds of atomic states. Within the numerical accuracy, the results constitute unified, general formulas for quantum electrodynamic corrections whose validity is not restricted to a single atomic state. The results are relevant for accurate predictions of radiative shifts of Rydberg states and for the description of the recently investigated laser-dressed Lamb shift, which is observable in a strong coherent-wave light field.Comment: 8 pages; RevTeX

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales