Stochastic models of evidence accumulation in changing environments

Organisms and ecological groups accumulate evidence to make decisions. Classic experiments and theoretical studies have explored this process when the correct choice is fixed during each trial. However, we live in a constantly changing world. What effect does such impermanence have on classical results about decision making? To address this question we use sequential analysis to derive a tractable model of evidence accumulation when the correct option changes in time. Our analysis shows that ideal observers discount prior evidence at a rate determined by the volatility of the environment, and the dynamics of evidence accumulation is governed by the information gained over an average environmental epoch. A plausible neural implementation of an optimal observer in a changing environment shows that, in contrast to previous models, neural populations representing alternate choices are coupled through excitation. Our work builds a bridge between statistical decision making in volatile environments and stochastic nonlinear dynamics.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Evidence accumulation and change rate inference in dynamic environments

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible changepoint counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments, and map this computation to reduced models which perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.Comment: 43 pages, 8 figures, in pres

La metodología b-learning y el aprendizaje del cálculo

El presente trabajo muestra los resultados logrados mediante la utilización del Aula Virtual que ofrece la institución en plataforma Claroline, en el proceso de enseñanza aprendizaje del Cálculo durante 2009 y 2010 en primer año universitario. Se ofreció a los alumnos una metodología de enseñanza con modalidad “blended learning”, que combina clases presenciales con actividades on-line. Se planificaron dichas actividades contando con herramientas de contenido (material de estudio y trabajo), de comunicación (correo electrónico, foro, chat, anuncios y consejos) y de evaluación (cuestionarios, autoevaluativos, actividades) que permitieron un seguimiento del proceso

Dialysate Potassium and Mortality in a Prospective Hemodialysis Cohort.

BackgroundStudies examining the association of dialysate potassium concentration and mortality in hemodialysis patients show conflicting findings. We hypothesized that low dialysate potassium concentrations are associated with higher mortality, particularly in patients with high pre-dialysis serum potassium concentrations.MethodsWe evaluated 624 hemodialysis patients from the prospective Malnutrition, Diet, and Racial Disparities in Kidney Disease study recruited from 16 outpatient dialysis facilities over 2011-2015 who underwent protocolized collection of dialysis treatment characteristics every 6 months. We examined the association of dialysate potassium concentration, categorized as 1, 2, and 3 mEq/L, with all-cause mortality risk in the -overall cohort, and stratified by pre-dialysis serum potassium (< 5 vs. ≥5 mEq/L) using case-mix adjusted Cox models.ResultsIn baseline analyses, dialysate potassium concentrations of 1 mEq/L were associated with higher mortality, whereas concentrations of 3 mEq/L were associated with similar mortality in the overall cohort (reference: 2 mEq/L): adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs; 95% CI) 1.70 (1.01-2.88) and 0.95 (0.64-1.39), respectively. In analyses stratified by serum potassium, baseline dialysate potassium concentrations of 1 mEq/L were associated with higher mortality in patients with serum potassium ≥5 mEq/L but not in those with serum potassium < 5 mEq/L: aHRs (95% CI) 2.87 (1.51-5.46) and 0.74 (0.27-2.07), respectively (p interaction = 0.04). These findings were robust with incremental adjustment for serum potassium, potassium-binding resins, and potassium-modifying medications.ConclusionLow (1 mEq/L) dialysate potassium -concentrations were associated with higher mortality, particularly in hemodialysis patients with high pre-dialysis serum potassium. Further studies are needed to identify therapeutic strategies that mitigate inter-dialytic serum potassium accumulation and subsequent high dialysate serum potassium gradients in this population

Manifestations faded gradually replacement of alfalfa ("Medicado sativa L.") by barley ("Hordeum vulgare L.") sprount in portions of Guinea pigs ("Cavia porcellus L.") in the stage of growth

El experimento fue conducido en el Centro de Producción de Cuyes de la Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica con el objetivo de evaluar la utilización de cuatro niveles (0, 25, 50 y 75%) de cebada hidropónica (CH) en substitución de la alfalfa en la alimentación de cuyes machos y hembras de la Línea Perú, en la fase de crecimiento, en número de 72, con 18 días de edad y 175 g de PV inicial medio confinados durante 42 días. Las raciones experimentales isoproteícas, fueron ofrecidos a los animales a voluntad y divididos en dos porciones (8 y 17 h). Fue utilizado el diseño experimental completamente aleatorizado y los tratamientos distribuidos en esquema factorial 2x4 (sexo x niveles de cebada hidropónica) con tres repeticiones por tratamiento, constituido cada unidad experimental por tres cuyes. Existió reducción lineal para machos en el consumo de MS en g/día y g/kg0.75 con el aumento de los niveles de substitución, este comportamiento también fue verificado para el consumo de PC (g/día). Hubo efecto cúbico para el consumo de PC por los cuyes hembras, en g/día, en g/kg0.75 y en %PV. La substitución de la alfalfa por la CH afectó la conversión alimenticia, cuyo comportamiento fue cuadrático y cúbico para machos y hembras, respectivamente. La CH influyó de forma cúbica sobre el peso final y ganancia de peso diario en los cuyes machos y hembras. Se concluye que es posible substituir la alfalfa por la CH hasta el nivel de 75% en cuyes hembras. El nivel de 25% de substitución proporciona las mejores ganancias de peso y pesos finales en cuyes machos y hembras en crecimiento, lo que pone de manifiesto el efecto positivo de la inclusión de la CH en la ración de cuyes en crecimiento.The experiment was conducted at the Center for Guinea Pig Production, National University of Huancavelica in order to evaluate the use of four levels (0, 25, 50 and 75%) of hydroponic barley (CH) in substitution of alfalfa in the feeding male and female guinea pigs of Peru line, in the growth phase, in number of 72, with 18 days of age and 175 g of initial PV means confined for 42 days. Isoproteic the experimental diets were offered ad libitum to the animals and divided in to two portions (8 and 17 h). It was used the completely randomized design and treatments distributed in factorial scheme 2x4 (sex x levels hydroponic barley) with three replicates per treatment, each experimental unit consists of three guinea pigs. Linear reduction existed for males MS consumption in g / g / day kg 0.75 with increasing substitution levels, this behavior was also verified for PC consumption (g / day). There was a cubic effect for consumption by the female guinea pigs PC in g / day, in g / kg0.75 and in % PV. The substitution of CH alfalfa affected by feed conversion, whose behavior was quadratic and cubic for males and females, respectively. The CH influenced cubical on final weight and daily weight gain in male and female guinea pigs. We conclude that it is possible to replace the CH alfalfa to the level of 75% in female guinea pigs. The level of 25% substitution provides the best weight gain and final weights in males and females growing guinea pigs, which shows the positive effect of the inclusion of CH in the ration of growing guinea pigs

High proportion of cactus species threatened with extinction

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologí

Species-speciWc defense strategies of vegetative versus reproductive blades of the PaciWc kelps Lessonia nigrescens and Macrocystis integrifolia

Chemical defense is assumed to be costly and therefore algae should allocate defense investments in a way to reduce costs and optimize their overall fitness. Thus, lifetime expectation of particular tissues and their contribution to the fitness of the alga may affect defense allocation. Two brown algae common to the SE Pacific coasts, Lessonia nigrescens Bory and Macrocystis integrifolia Bory, feature important ontogenetic differences in the development of reproductive structures; in L. nigrescens blade tissues pass from a vegetative stage to a reproductive stage, while in M. integrifolia reproductive and vegetative functions are spatially separated on different blades. We hypothesized that vegetative blades of L. nigrescens with important future functions are more (or equally) defended than reproductive blades, whereas in M. integrifolia defense should be mainly allocated to reproductive blades (sporophylls), which are considered to make a higher contribution to fitness. Herein, within-plant variation in susceptibility of reproductive and vegetative tissues to herbivory and in allocation of phlorotannins (phenolics) and N-compounds was compared. The results show that phlorotannin and N-concentrations were higher in reproductive blade tissues for both investigated algae. However, preferences by amphipod grazers (Parhyalella penai) for either tissue type differed between the two algal species. Fresh reproductive tissue of L. nigrescens was more consumed than vegetative tissue, while the reverse was found in M. integrifolia, thus confirming the original hypothesis. This suggests that future fitness function might indeed be a useful predictor of anti-herbivore defense in large, perennial kelps. Results from feeding assays with artificial pellets that were made with air-dried material and extract-treated Ulva powder indicated that defenses in live algae are probably not based on chemicals that can be extracted or remain intact after air-drying and grinding up algal tissues. Instead, anti-herbivore defense against amphipod mesograzers seems to depend on structural traits of living algae