Does education reduce the probability of being overweight?

This paper analyses the causal effect of education on the probability of being overweight by using longitudinal data of Australian identical twins. The data include self-reported and clinical measures of body size. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is growing rapidly in many countries. Education policies might be important for reducing this increase. Our cross-sectional estimates confirm the well-known negative association between education and the probability of being overweight. For men we find that education also reduces the probability of being overweight within pairs of identical twins. The estimated effect of education on overweight status increases with age. Remarkably, for women we find no negative effect of education on body size when fixed family effects are taken into account. Identical twin sisters that differ in educational attainment do not systematically differ in body size. This finding is robust to differences in employment and number of children.

Optimal Probabilistic Forecasts for Counts

Optimal probabilistic forecasts of integer-valued random variables are derived. The optimality is achieved by estimating the forecast distribution nonparametrically over a given broad model class and proving asymptotic efficiency in that setting. The ideas are demonstrated within the context of the integer autoregressive class of models, which is a suitable class for any count data that can be interpreted as a queue, stock, birth and death process or branching process. The theoretical proofs of asymptotic optimality are supplemented by simulation results which demonstrate the overall superiority of the nonparametric method relative to a misspecified parametric maximum likelihood estimator, in large but .nite samples. The method is applied to counts of wage claim benefits, stock market iceberg orders and civilian deaths in Iraq, with bootstrap methods used to quantify sampling variation in the estimated forecast distributions.Nonparametric Inference; Asymptotic Efficiency; Count Time Series; INAR Model Class; Bootstrap Distributions; Iceberg Stock Market Orders.

Lubrication in cold rolling: Elasto-plasto-hydrodynamic lubrication

A model has been developed with respect to hydrodynamic lubrication in cold rolling. The basic model describes the configuration of a rigid, perfectly plastic sheet rolled by a rigid work roll. The governing equations have been solved throughout the complete contact area, i.e. the inlet, the work zone and the outlet zone. Multi-level techniques have been applied to solve these equations together with boundary conditions, resulting in an algorithm solving the problem in O(n) operations. This means that the distribution of the pressure and the traction force in the lubricant film, and the shape of this film, as well as the plastic deformation of the sheet, can be accurately calculated for a large number of nodal points on a minicomputer. Subsequently elastic deformation, work hardening and dynamic behaviour of the flow stress have been incorporated in the model. It will be shown that the influence of these effects on the film thickness or the pressure distribution is considerable

Non-Parametric Estimation of Forecast Distributions in Non-Gaussian, Non-linear State Space Models

The object of this paper is to produce non-parametric maximum likelihood estimates of forecast distributions in a general non-Gaussian, non-linear state space setting. The transition densities that define the evolution of the dynamic state process are represented in parametric form, but the conditional distribution of the non-Gaussian variable is estimated non-parametrically. The filtering and prediction distributions are estimated via a computationally efficient algorithm that exploits the functional relationship between the observed variable, the state variable and a measurement error with an invariant distribution. Simulation experiments are used to document the accuracy of the non-parametric method relative to both correctly and incorrectly specified parametric alternatives. In an empirical illustration, the method is used to produce sequential estimates of the forecast distribution of realized volatility on the S&P500 stock index during the recent financial crisis. A resampling technique for measuring sampling variation in the estimated forecast distributions is also demonstrated.Probabilistic Forecasting; Non-Gaussian Time Series; Grid-based Filtering; Penalized Likelihood; Subsampling; Realized Volatility.

The NNLO non-singlet QCD analysis of parton distributions based on Bernstein polynomials

A non-singlet QCD analysis of the structure function $xF_3$ up to NNLO is performed based on the Bernstein polynomials approach. We use recently calculated NNLO anomalous dimension coefficients for the moments of the $xF_3$ structure function in $\nu N$ scattering. In the fitting procedure, Bernstein polynomial method is used to construct experimental moments from the $xF_3$ data of the CCFR collaboration in the region of $x$ which is inaccessible experimentally. We also consider Bernstein averages to obtain some unknown parameters which exist in the valence quark densities in a wide range of $x$ and $Q^2$. The results of valence quark distributions up to NNLO are in good agreement with the available theoretical models. In the analysis we determined the QCD-scale $\Lambda^ {\bar{MS}}_{QCD, N_{f}=4}=211$ MeV (LO), 259 MeV (NLO) and 230 MeV (NNLO), corresponding to $\alpha_s(M_Z^2)=0.1291$ LO, $\alpha_s(M_Z^2)=0.1150$ NLO and $\alpha_s(M_Z^2)=0.1142$ NNLO. We compare our results for the QCD scale and the $\alpha_s(M_Z^2)$ with those obtained from deep inelastic scattering processes.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, published in JHE

Charge asymmetry in W + jets production at the LHC

The charge asymmetry in W + jets production at the LHC can serve to calibrate the presence of New Physics contributions. We study the ratio {\sigma}(W^+ + n jets)/{\sigma}(W^- + n jets) in the Standard Model for n <= 4, paying particular attention to the uncertainty in the prediction from higher-order perturbative corrections and uncertainties in parton distribution functions. We show that these uncertainties are generally of order a few percent, making the experimental measurement of the charge asymmetry ratio a particularly useful diagnostic tool for New Physics contributions.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures. Reference added. Slightly modified tex

On parton distributions beyond the leading order

The importance of properly taking into account the factorization scheme dependence of parton distribution functions is emphasized. A serious error in the usual handling of this topic is pointed out and the correct procedure for transforming parton distribution functions from one factorisation scheme to another recalled. It is shown that the conventional $\overline{\rm {MS}}$ and DIS definitions thereof are ill-defined due to the lack of distinction between the factorisation scheme dependence of parton distribution functions and renormalisation scheme dependence of the strong coupling constant $\alpha_s$. A novel definition of parton distribution functions is suggested and its role in the construction of consistent next-to-leading order event generators briefly outlined.Comment: PRA-HEP-93/05, Latex, 10 pages and 2 Postscript figures appended at the end of this fil