Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD

Background Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk strati fi cation to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools. Methods The study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identi fi ed by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results In the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV 1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality. Conclusions DECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0 – 1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3 – 6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation. Trial registration number UKCRN ID 14214

Linear Responses in Time-dependent Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov Method with Gogny Interaction

A numerical method to integrate the time-dependent Hartree-Fock Bogoliubov (TDHFB) equations with Gogny interaction is proposed. The feasibility of the TDHFB code is illustrated by the conservation of the energy, particle numbers, and center-of-mass in the small amplitude vibrations of oxygen 20. The TDHFB code is applied to the isoscalar quadrupole and/or isovector dipole vibrations in the linear (small amplitude) region in oxygen isotopes (masses A = 18,20,22 and 24), titanium isotopes (A = 44,50,52 and 54), neon isotope (A = 26), and magnesium isotopes (A = 24 and 34). The isoscalar quadrupole and isovector dipole strength functions are calculated from the expectation values of the isoscalar quadrupole and isovector dipole moments.Comment: 10 pages, 13 figure

Is the Sun Embedded in a Typical Interstellar Cloud?

The physical properties and kinematics of the partially ionized interstellar material near the Sun are typical of warm diffuse clouds in the solar vicinity. The interstellar magnetic field at the heliosphere and the kinematics of nearby clouds are naturally explained in terms of the S1 superbubble shell. The interstellar radiation field at the Sun appears to be harder than the field ionizing ambient diffuse gas, which may be a consequence of the low opacity of the tiny cloud surrounding the heliosphere. The spatial context of the Local Bubble is consistent with our location in the Orion spur.Comment: "From the Outer Heliosphere to the Local Bubble", held at International Space Sciences Institute, October 200

Coexistence of 'alpha+ 208Pb' cluster structures and single-particle excitations in 212Po

Excited states in 212Po have been populated by alpha transfer using the 208Pb(18O,14C) reaction at 85MeV beam energy and studied with the EUROBALL IV gamma multidetector array. The level scheme has been extended up to ~ 3.2 MeV excitation energy from the triple gamma coincidence data. Spin and parity values of most of the observed states have been assigned from the gamma angular distributions and gamma -gamma angular correlations. Several gamma lines with E(gamma) < 1 MeV have been found to be shifted by the Doppler effect, allowing for the measurements of the associated lifetimes by the DSAM method. The values, found in the range [0.1-0.6] ps, lead to very enhanced E1 transitions. All the emitting states, which have non-natural parity values, are discussed in terms of alpha-208Pb structure. They are in the same excitation-energy range as the states issued from shell-model configurations.Comment: 21 pages, 19 figures, corrected typos, revised arguments in Sect. III

Active Brownian Particles. From Individual to Collective Stochastic Dynamics

We review theoretical models of individual motility as well as collective dynamics and pattern formation of active particles. We focus on simple models of active dynamics with a particular emphasis on nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of such self-propelled entities in the framework of statistical mechanics. Examples of such active units in complex physico-chemical and biological systems are chemically powered nano-rods, localized patterns in reaction-diffusion system, motile cells or macroscopic animals. Based on the description of individual motion of point-like active particles by stochastic differential equations, we discuss different velocity-dependent friction functions, the impact of various types of fluctuations and calculate characteristic observables such as stationary velocity distributions or diffusion coefficients. Finally, we consider not only the free and confined individual active dynamics but also different types of interaction between active particles. The resulting collective dynamical behavior of large assemblies and aggregates of active units is discussed and an overview over some recent results on spatiotemporal pattern formation in such systems is given.Comment: 161 pages, Review, Eur Phys J Special-Topics, accepte

Seasonal variation in the herbage yield and nutritive value of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) cultivars with high or normal herbage water-soluble carbohydrate concentrations grown in three contrasting Australian dairy environments

Two lines of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.), cv. Aurora and breeding line Ba 11351, from the United Kingdom with elevated concentrations of water-soluble carbohydrates in the shoot were compared with the standard cultivars, Ellett, Vedette and Kangaroo Valley, in pure grass swards under irrigation at Kyabram, Victoria, and Gatton, Queensland, and under natural rainfall at Condah, Victoria, during 1995–97. Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy was used to predict the water-soluble carbohydrate, crude protein, in vitro dry matter digestibility, neutral and acid detergent fibre, and Klason lignin concentrations of the perennial ryegrass herbage. Herbage yield and water-soluble carbohydrate differed between cultivars at each site at most harvests, with the high water-soluble carbohydrate lines usually yielding less and having higher water-soluble carbohydrate concentrations than the 3 standard cultivars. However, the high water-soluble carbohydrate lines also had higher water-soluble carbohydrate concentrations at harvests where their yield was equal to the standard cultivars. The other nutritive value traits differed significantly at more than half of the 32 harvests: the high water-soluble carbohydrate lines had higher crude protein and dry matter digestibility, and lower neutral detergent fibre, the neutral detergent fibre containing less acid detergent fibre and lignin than did the standard cultivars. The high water-soluble carbohydrate lines were more susceptible to crown rust during spring and summer than the standard cultivars at Kyabram and Gatton: heavy infections reduced yield, water-soluble carbohydrate, dry matter digestibility and crude protein. Higher water-soluble carbohydrate may depend on only a few genes, as does rust resistance and it seems likely that high yielding, high water-soluble carbohydrate cultivars can be developed by recombination and selection

On the relevance of chaos for halo stars in the solar neighbourhood II

In a previous paper based on dark matter only simulations we show that, in the approximation of an analytic and static potential describing the strongly triaxial and cuspy shape of Milky Way-sized haloes, diffusion due to chaotic mixing in the neighbourhood of the Sun does not efficiently erase phase space signatures of past accretion events. In this second paper we further explore the effect of chaotic mixing using multicomponent Galactic potential models and solar neighbourhood-like volumes extracted from fully cosmological hydrodynamic simulations, thus naturally accounting for the gravitational potential associated with baryonic components, such as the bulge and disc. Despite the strong change in the global Galactic potentials with respect to those obtained in dark matter only simulations, our results confirm that a large fraction of halo particles evolving on chaotic orbits exhibit their chaotic behaviour after periods of time significantly larger than a Hubble time. In addition, significant diffusion in phase space is not observed on those particles that do exhibit chaotic behaviour within a Hubble time

Energetic particle influence on the Earth's atmosphere

This manuscript gives an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the effects of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) onto the whole atmosphere, from the lower thermosphere/mesosphere through the stratosphere and troposphere, to the surface. The paper summarizes the different sources and energies of particles, principally galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and energetic electron precipitation (EEP). All the proposed mechanisms by which EPP can affect the atmosphere are discussed, including chemical changes in the upper atmosphere and lower thermosphere, chemistry-dynamics feedbacks, the global electric circuit and cloud formation. The role of energetic particles in Earth’s atmosphere is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires expertise from a range of scientific backgrounds. To assist with this synergy, summary tables are provided, which are intended to evaluate the level of current knowledge of the effects of energetic particles on processes in the entire atmosphere