Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Regulation of DNA synthesis and the cell cycle in human prostate cancer cells and lymphocytes by ovine uterine serpin

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Uterine serpins are members of the serine proteinase inhibitor superfamily. Like some other serpins, these proteins do not appear to be functional proteinase inhibitors. The most studied member of the group, ovine uterine serpin (OvUS), inhibits proliferation of several cell types including activated lymphocytes, bovine preimplantation embryos, and cell lines for lymphoma, canine primary osteosarcoma and human prostate cancer (PC-3) cells. The goal for the present study was to evaluate the mechanism by which OvUS inhibits cell proliferation. In particular, it was tested whether inhibition of DNA synthesis in PC-3 cells involves cytotoxic actions of OvUS or the induction of apoptosis. The effect of OvUS in the production of the autocrine and angiogenic cytokine interleukin (IL)-8 by PC-3 cells was also determined. Finally, it was tested whether OvUS blocks specific steps in the cell cycle using both PC-3 cells and lymphocytes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Recombinant OvUS blocked proliferation of PC-3 cells at concentrations as low as 8 μg/ml as determined by measurements of [³H]thymidine incorporation or ATP content per well. Treatment of PC-3 cells with OvUS did not cause cytotoxicity or apoptosis or alter interleukin-8 secretion into medium. Results from flow cytometry experiments showed that OvUS blocked the entry of PC-3 cells into S phase and the exit from G₂/M phase. In addition, OvUS blocked entry of lymphocytes into S phase following activation of proliferation with phytohemagglutinin.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results indicate that OvUS acts to block cell proliferation through disruption of the cell cycle dynamics rather than induction of cytotoxicity or apoptosis. The finding that OvUS can regulate cell proliferation makes this one of only a few serpins that function to inhibit cell growth.</p

Targeting DNA-PKcs and ATM with miR-101 Sensitizes Tumors to Radiation

Radiotherapy kills tumor-cells by inducing DNA double strand breaks (DSBs). However, the efficient repair of tumors frequently prevents successful treatment. Therefore, identifying new practical sensitizers is an essential step towards successful radiotherapy. In this study, we tested the new hypothesis: identifying the miRNAs to target DNA DSB repair genes could be a new way for sensitizing tumors to ionizing radiation.HERE, WE CHOSE TWO GENES: DNA-PKcs (an essential factor for non-homologous end-joining repair) and ATM (an important checkpoint regulator for promoting homologous recombination repair) as the targets to search their regulating miRNAs. By combining the database search and the bench work, we picked out miR-101. We identified that miR-101 could efficiently target DNA-PKcs and ATM via binding to the 3'- UTR of DNA-PKcs or ATM mRNA. Up-regulating miR-101 efficiently reduced the protein levels of DNA-PKcs and ATM in these tumor cells and most importantly, sensitized the tumor cells to radiation in vitro and in vivo.These data demonstrate for the first time that miRNAs could be used to target DNA repair genes and thus sensitize tumors to radiation. These results provide a new way for improving tumor radiotherapy

Signatures of Selection in Fusion Transcripts Resulting From Chromosomal Translocations in Human Cancer

BACKGROUND: The recurrence and non-random distribution of translocation breakpoints in human tumors are usually attributed to local sequence features present in the vicinity of the breakpoints. However, it has also been suggested that functional constraints might contribute to delimit the position of translocation breakpoints within the genes involved, but a quantitative analysis of such contribution has been lacking. METHODOLOGY: We have analyzed two well-known signatures of functional selection, such as reading-frame compatibility and non-random combinations of protein domains, on an extensive dataset of fusion proteins resulting from chromosomal translocations in cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Our data provide strong experimental support for the concept that the position of translocation breakpoints in the genome of cancer cells is determined, to a large extent, by the need to combine certain protein domains and to keep an intact reading frame in fusion transcripts. Additionally, the information that we have assembled affords a global view of the oncogenic mechanisms and domain architectures that are used by fusion proteins. This can be used to assess the functional impact of novel chromosomal translocations and to predict the position of breakpoints in the genes involved

Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11) and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seventy-nine (44%) of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (<it>n </it>= 22) suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (<it>n </it>= 10) of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (<it>Χ</it>²= 8.76, df = 1, <it>p </it>= .003). Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively) during follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression.</p

Genome-Wide Profiling of Histone H3 Lysine 4 and Lysine 27 Trimethylation Reveals an Epigenetic Signature in Prostate Carcinogenesis

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence implicates the critical roles of epigenetic regulation in cancer. Very recent reports indicate that global gene silencing in cancer is associated with specific epigenetic modifications. However, the relationship between epigenetic switches and more dynamic patterns of gene activation and repression has remained largely unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Genome-wide profiling of the trimethylation of histone H3 lysine 4 (H3K4me3) and lysine 27 (H3K27me3) was performed using chromatin immunoprecipitation coupled with whole genome promoter microarray (ChIP-chip) techniques. Comparison of the ChIP-chip data and microarray gene expression data revealed that loss and/or gain of H3K4me3 and/or H3K27me3 were strongly associated with differential gene expression, including microRNA expression, between prostate cancer and primary cells. The most common switches were gain or loss of H3K27me3 coupled with low effect on gene expression. The least prevalent switches were between H3K4me3 and H3K27me3 coupled with much higher fractions of activated and silenced genes. Promoter patterns of H3K4me3 and H3K27me3 corresponded strongly with coordinated expression changes of regulatory gene modules, such as HOX and microRNA genes, and structural gene modules, such as desmosome and gap junction genes. A number of epigenetically switched oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes were found overexpressed and underexpressed accordingly in prostate cancer cells. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This work offers a dynamic picture of epigenetic switches in carcinogenesis and contributes to an overall understanding of coordinated regulation of gene expression in cancer. Our data indicate an H3K4me3/H3K27me3 epigenetic signature of prostate carcinogenesis

Haplotypes of DNA repair and cell cycle control genes, X-ray exposure, and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

[[abstract]]Background: Acute leukemias of childhood are a heterogeneous group of malignancies characterized by cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations and changes in ploidy. These abnormalities may be influenced by altered DNA repair and cell cycle control processes. Methods: We examined the association between childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and 32 genes in DNA repair and cell cycle pathways using a haplotype-based approach, among 377 childhood ALL cases and 448 controls enrolled during 1995-2002. Results: We found that haplotypes in APEX1, BRCA2, ERCC2, and RAD51 were significantly associated with total ALL, while haplotypes in NBN and XRCC4, and CDKN2A were associated with structural and numerical change subtypes, respectively. In addition, we observed statistically significant interaction between exposure to 3 or more diagnostic X-rays and haplotypes of XRCC4 on risk of structural abnormality-positive childhood ALL. Conclusions: These results support a role of altered DNA repair and cell cycle processes in the risk of childhood ALL, and show that this genetic susceptibility can differ by cytogenetic subtype and may be modified by exposure to ionizing radiation. To our knowledge, our study is the first to broadly examine the DNA repair and cell cycle pathways using a haplotype approach in conjunction with X-ray exposures in childhood ALL risk. If confirmed, future studies are needed to identify specific functional SNPs in the regions of interest identified in this analysis

Understanding the limitations of radiation-induced cell cycle checkpoints

The DNA damage response pathways involve processes of double-strand break (DSB) repair and cell cycle checkpoint control to prevent or limit entry into S phase or mitosis in the presence of unrepaired damage. Checkpoints can function to permanently remove damaged cells from the actively proliferating population but can also halt the cell cycle temporarily to provide time for the repair of DSBs. Although efficient in their ability to limit genomic instability, checkpoints are not foolproof but carry inherent limitations. Recent work has demonstrated that the G1/S checkpoint is slowly activated and allows cells to enter S phase in the presence of unrepaired DSBs for about 4–6 h post irradiation. During this time, only a slowing but not abolition of S-phase entry is observed. The G2/M checkpoint, in contrast, is quickly activated but only responds to a level of 10–20 DSBs such that cells with a low number of DSBs do not initiate the checkpoint or terminate arrest before repair is complete. Here, we discuss the limitations of these checkpoints in the context of the current knowledge of the factors involved. We suggest that the time needed to fully activate G1/S arrest reflects the existence of a restriction point in G1-phase progression. This point has previously been defined as the point when mitogen starvation fails to prevent cells from entering S phase. However, cells that passed the restriction point can respond to DSBs, albeit with reduced efficiency