Residual confounding after adjustment for age: a minor issue in breast cancer screening effectiveness

Residual confounding, after adjustment for age, is the major criticism of observational studies on breast cancer screening effectiveness. We developed realistic scenarios for the prevalence and strength of risk factors on screened and not screened groups, and explored the impact of residual confounding bias. Our results demonstrate that residual confounding bias is a minor issue in screening programme evaluations

Effectiveness of service screening: a case–control study to assess breast cancer mortality reduction

The aim of this study was the evaluation of the impact of service screening programmes on breast cancer mortality in five regions of Italy. We conducted a matched case–control study with four controls for each case. Cases were defined as breast cancer deaths occurred not later than 31 December 2002. Controls were sampled from the local municipality list and matched by date of birth. Screening histories were assessed by the local, computerised, screening database and subjects were classified as either invited or not-yet-invited and as either screened or unscreened. There were a total of 1750 breast cancer deaths within the 50 to 74-year-old breast cancer cases and a total of 7000 controls. The logistic conditional estimate of the cumulative odds ratios comparing invited with not-yet-invited women was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.62–0.92). Restricting the analyses to invited women, the odds ratio of screened to never-respondent women corrected for self-selection bias was 0.55 (95% CI: 0.36–0.85). The introduction of breast cancer screening programmes in Italy is associated with a reduction in breast cancer mortality attributable to the additional impact of service screening over and above the background access to mammography

Effect of population breast screening on breast cancer mortality up to 2005 in England and Wales: an individual-level cohort study.

Background Population breast screening has been implemented in the UK for over 25 years, but the size of benefit attributable to such programmes remains controversial. We have conducted the first individual-based cohort evaluation of population breast screening in the UK, to estimate the impact of the NHS breast screening programme (NHSBSP) on breast cancer mortality.Methods We followed 988 090 women aged 49-64 years in 1991 resident in England and Wales, who because of the staggered implementation of the NHSBSP, included both invited subjects and an uninvited control group. Individual-level breast screening histories were linked to individual-level mortality and breast cancer incidence data from national registers. Risk of death from breast cancer was investigated by incidence-based mortality analyses in relation to intention to screen and first round attendance. Overdiagnosis of breast cancer following a single screening round was also investigated.Results Invitation to NHSBSP screening was associated with a reduction in breast cancer mortality in 1991-2005 of 21% (RR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84, P<0·001) after adjustment for age, socioeconomic status and lead-time. Breast cancer deaths among first invitation attenders were 46% lower than among non-attenders (RR=0.54, 95% CI: 0.51-0·57, P<0.001) and 32% lower following adjustment for age, socioeconomic status and self-selection bias (RR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.63-0·73, P<0.001). There was little evidence of overdiagnosis associated with invitation to first screen.Conclusions The results indicate a substantial, statistically significant reduction in breast cancer mortality between 1991 and 2005 associated with NHSBSP activity. This is important in public health terms