Daily volume, intraday and overnight returns for volatility prediction: profitability or accuracy?

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative ability of three information sets—daily trading volume, intraday returns and overnight returns—to predict equity volatility. We investigate the extent to which statistical accuracy of one-day-ahead forecasts translates into economic gains for technical traders. Various profitability criteria and utility-based switching fees indicate that the largest gains stem from combining historical daily returns with volume information. Using common statistical loss functions, the largest degree of predictive power is found instead in intraday returns. Our analysis thus reinforces the view that statistical significance does not have a direct mapping onto economic value. As a byproduct, we show that buying the stock when the forecasted volatility is extremely high appears largely profitable, suggesting a strong return-risk relationship in turbulent conditions

Superior Immunogenicity of Inactivated Whole Virus H5N1 Influenza Vaccine is Primarily Controlled by Toll-like Receptor Signalling

In the case of an influenza pandemic, the current global influenza vaccine production capacity will be unable to meet the demand for billions of vaccine doses. The ongoing threat of an H5N1 pandemic therefore urges the development of highly immunogenic, dose-sparing vaccine formulations. In unprimed individuals, inactivated whole virus (WIV) vaccines are more immunogenic and induce protective antibody responses at a lower antigen dose than other formulations like split virus (SV) or subunit (SU) vaccines. The reason for this discrepancy in immunogenicity is a long-standing enigma. Here, we show that stimulation of Toll-like receptors (TLRs) of the innate immune system, in particular stimulation of TLR7, by H5N1 WIV vaccine is the prime determinant of the greater magnitude and Th1 polarization of the WIV-induced immune response, as compared to SV- or SU-induced responses. This TLR dependency largely explains the relative loss of immunogenicity in SV and SU vaccines. The natural pathogen-associated molecular pattern (PAMP) recognized by TLR7 is viral genomic ssRNA. Processing of whole virus particles into SV or SU vaccines destroys the integrity of the viral particle and leaves the viral RNA prone to degradation or involves its active removal. Our results show for a classic vaccine that the acquired immune response evoked by vaccination can be enhanced and steered by the innate immune system, which is triggered by interaction of an intrinsic vaccine component with a pattern recognition receptor (PRR). The insights presented here may be used to further improve the immune-stimulatory and dose-sparing properties of classic influenza vaccine formulations such as WIV, and will facilitate the development of new, even more powerful vaccines to face the next influenza pandemic

Transcriptomic analysis of the temporal host response to skin infestation with the ectoparasitic mite Psoroptes ovis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Infestation of ovine skin with the ectoparasitic mite <it>Psoroptes ovis </it>results in a rapid cutaneous immune response, leading to the crusted skin lesions characteristic of sheep scab. Little is known regarding the mechanisms by which such a profound inflammatory response is instigated and to identify novel vaccine and drug targets a better understanding of the host-parasite relationship is essential. The main objective of this study was to perform a combined network and pathway analysis of the <it>in vivo </it>skin response to infestation with <it>P. ovis </it>to gain a clearer understanding of the mechanisms and signalling pathways involved.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Infestation with <it>P. </it>ovis resulted in differential expression of 1,552 genes over a 24 hour time course. Clustering by peak gene expression enabled classification of genes into temporally related groupings. Network and pathway analysis of clusters identified key signalling pathways involved in the host response to infestation. The analysis implicated a number of genes with roles in allergy and inflammation, including pro-inflammatory cytokines (<it>IL1A, IL1B, IL6, IL8 </it>and <it>TNF</it>) and factors involved in immune cell activation and recruitment (<it>SELE, SELL, SELP, ICAM1, CSF2, CSF3, CCL2 </it>and <it>CXCL2</it>). The analysis also highlighted the influence of the transcription factors NF-kB and AP-1 in the early pro-inflammatory response, and demonstrated a bias towards a Th2 type immune response.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study has provided novel insights into the signalling mechanisms leading to the development of a pro-inflammatory response in sheep scab, whilst providing crucial information regarding the nature of mite factors that may trigger this response. It has enabled the elucidation of the temporal patterns by which the immune system is regulated following exposure to <it>P. ovis</it>, providing novel insights into the mechanisms underlying lesion development. This study has improved our existing knowledge of the host response to <it>P. ovis</it>, including the identification of key parallels between sheep scab and other inflammatory skin disorders and the identification of potential targets for disease control.</p

613 cases of splenic rupture without risk factors or previously diagnosed disease: a systematic review

Background Rupture of the spleen in the absence of trauma or previously diagnosed disease is largely ignored in the emergency literature and is often not documented as such in journals from other fields. We have conducted a systematic review of the literature to highlight the surprisingly frequent occurrence of this phenomenon and to document the diversity of diseases that can present in this fashion. Methods Systematic review of English and French language publications catalogued in Pubmed, Embase and CINAHL between 1950 and 2011. Results We found 613 cases of splenic rupture meeting the criteria above, 327 of which occurred as the presenting complaint of an underlying disease and 112 of which occurred following a medical procedure. Rupture appeared to occur spontaneously in histologically normal (but not necessarily normal size) spleens in 35 cases and after minor trauma in 23 cases. Medications were implicated in 47 cases, a splenic or adjacent anatomical abnormality in 31 cases and pregnancy or its complications in 38 cases. The most common associated diseases were infectious (n = 143), haematologic (n = 84) and non-haematologic neoplasms (n = 48). Amyloidosis (n = 24), internal trauma such as cough or vomiting (n = 17) and rheumatologic diseases (n = 10) are less frequently reported. Colonoscopy (n = 87) was the procedure reported most frequently as a cause of rupture. The anatomic abnormalities associated with rupture include splenic cysts (n = 6), infarction (n = 6) and hamartomata (n = 5). Medications associated with rupture include anticoagulants (n = 21), thrombolytics (n = 13) and recombinant G-CSF (n = 10). Other causes or associations reported very infrequently include other endoscopy, pulmonary, cardiac or abdominal surgery, hysterectomy, peliosis, empyema, remote pancreato-renal transplant, thrombosed splenic vein, hemangiomata, pancreatic pseudocysts, splenic artery aneurysm, cholesterol embolism, splenic granuloma, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, rib exostosis, pancreatitis, Gaucher's disease, Wilson's disease, pheochromocytoma, afibrinogenemia and ruptured ectopic pregnancy. Conclusions Emergency physicians should be attuned to the fact that rupture of the spleen can occur in the absence of major trauma or previously diagnosed splenic disease. The occurrence of such a rupture is likely to be the manifesting complaint of an underlying disease. Furthermore, colonoscopy should be more widely documented as a cause of splenic rupture