Time series classification with ensembles of elastic distance measures

Several alternative distance measures for comparing time series have recently been proposed and evaluated on time series classification (TSC) problems. These include variants of dynamic time warping (DTW), such as weighted and derivative DTW, and edit distance-based measures, including longest common subsequence, edit distance with real penalty, time warp with edit, and move–split–merge. These measures have the common characteristic that they operate in the time domain and compensate for potential localised misalignment through some elastic adjustment. Our aim is to experimentally test two hypotheses related to these distance measures. Firstly, we test whether there is any significant difference in accuracy for TSC problems between nearest neighbour classifiers using these distance measures. Secondly, we test whether combining these elastic distance measures through simple ensemble schemes gives significantly better accuracy. We test these hypotheses by carrying out one of the largest experimental studies ever conducted into time series classification. Our first key finding is that there is no significant difference between the elastic distance measures in terms of classification accuracy on our data sets. Our second finding, and the major contribution of this work, is to define an ensemble classifier that significantly outperforms the individual classifiers. We also demonstrate that the ensemble is more accurate than approaches not based in the time domain. Nearly all TSC papers in the data mining literature cite DTW (with warping window set through cross validation) as the benchmark for comparison. We believe that our ensemble is the first ever classifier to significantly outperform DTW and as such raises the bar for future work in this area

Constrained analytical interrelations in neutrino mixing

Hermitian squared mass matrices of charged leptons and light neutrinos in the flavor basis are studied under general additive lowest order perturbations away from the tribimaximal (TBM) limit in which a weak basis with mass diagonal charged leptons is chosen. Simple analytical expressions are found for the three measurable TBM-deviants in terms of perturbation parameters appearing in the neutrino and charged lepton eigenstates in the flavor basis. Taking unnatural cancellations to be absent and charged lepton perturbation parameters to be small, interrelations are derived among masses, mixing angles and the amount of CP-violation.Comment: To be published in the Springer Proceedings in the Physics Series under the heading of the XXI DAE-BRNS Symposium (Guwahati, India

Minimal flavour violation extensions of the seesaw

We analyze the most natural formulations of the minimal lepton flavour violation hypothesis compatible with a type-I seesaw structure with three heavy singlet neutrinos N, and satisfying the requirement of being predictive, in the sense that all LFV effects can be expressed in terms of low energy observables. We find a new interesting realization based on the flavour group $SU(3)_e\times SU(3)_{\ell+N}$ (being $e$ and $\ell$ respectively the SU(2) singlet and doublet leptons). An intriguing feature of this realization is that, in the normal hierarchy scenario for neutrino masses, it allows for sizeable enhancements of $\mu \to e$ transitions with respect to LFV processes involving the $\tau$ lepton. We also discuss how the symmetries of the type-I seesaw allow for a strong suppression of the N mass scale with respect to the scale of lepton number breaking, without implying a similar suppression for possible mechanisms of N productionComment: 14 pages, 6 figure

Lepton flavour violation in the MSSM

We derive new constraints on the quantities delta_{XY}^{ij}, X,Y=L,R, which parametrise the flavour-off-diagonal terms of the charged slepton mass matrix in the MSSM. Considering mass and anomalous magnetic moment of the electron we obtain the bound |delta^{13}_{LL} delta^{13}_{RR}|<0.1 for tan beta=50, which involves the poorly constrained element delta^{13}_{RR}. We improve the predictions for the decays tau -> mu gamma, tau -> e gamma and mu -> e gamma by including two-loop corrections which are enhanced if tan beta is large. The finite renormalisation of the PMNS matrix from soft SUSY-breaking terms is derived and applied to the charged-Higgs-lepton vertex. We find that the experimental bound on BR(tau -> e gamma) severely limits the size of the MSSM loop correction to the PMNS element U_{e3}, which is important for the proper interpretation of a future U_{e3} measurement. Subsequently we confront our new values for delta^{ij}_{LL} with a GUT analysis. Further, we include the effects of dimension-5 Yukawa terms, which are needed to fix the Yukawa unification of the first two generations. If universal supersymmetry breaking occurs above the GUT scale, we find the flavour structure of the dimension-5 Yukawa couplings tightly constrained by mu -> e gamma.Comment: 37 pages, 15 figures; typo in Equation (35) and (49) correcte

Decaying Dark Matter in the Supersymmetric Standard Model with Freeze-in and Seesaw mechanims

Inspired by the decaying dark matter (DM) which can explain cosmic ray anomalies naturally, we consider the supersymmetric Standard Model with three right-handed neutrinos (RHNs) and R-parity, and introduce a TeV-scale DM sector with two fields \phi_{1,2} and a $Z_3$ discrete symmetry. The DM sector only interacts with the RHNs via a very heavy field exchange and then we can explain the cosmic ray anomalies. With the second right-handed neutrino N_2 dominant seesaw mechanism at the low scale around 10^4 GeV, we show that \phi_{1,2} can obtain the vacuum expectation values around the TeV scale, and then the lightest state from \phi_{1,2} is the decay DM with lifetime around \sim 10^{26}s. In particular, the DM very long lifetime is related to the tiny neutrino masses, and the dominant DM decay channels to \mu and \tau are related to the approximate \mu-\tau symmetry. Furthermore, the correct DM relic density can be obtained via the freeze-in mechanism, the small-scale problem for power spectrum can be solved due to the decays of the R-parity odd meta-stable states in the DM sector, and the baryon asymmetry can be generated via the soft leptogensis.Comment: 24 pages,3 figure

Future orientation and planning in forestry: a comparison of forest managers' planning horizons in Germany and the Netherlands

Long range (or strategic) planning is an important tool for forest management to deal with the complex and unpredictable future. However, it is the ability to make meaningful predictions about the rapidly changing future that is questioned. What appears to be particularly neglected is the question of the length of time horizons and the limits (if any) to these horizons, despite being considered one of the most critical factors in strategic planning. As the future creation of values lies within individual responsibility, this research empirically explored the limits (if any) of individual foresters¿ time horizons. To draw comparisons between countries with different traditions in forest management planning, data were collected through telephone surveys of forest managers in the state/national forest services of the Netherlands and Germany. In order to minimize other cultural differences, the research in Germany concentrated on the federal state of Nordrhein-Westfalen, which has considerable similarities with the Netherlands, e.g. in topography, forest types and forest functions. The results show that, in practice, 15 years appears to be the most distant horizon that foresters can identify with. This is in sharp contrast to the time horizons spanning decades and even generations that are always said to exist in forestry. The ¿doctrine of the long run¿¿the faith in the capacity of foresters to overcome the barriers of the uncertain future and look ahead and plan for long-range goals¿which in many countries still underlies traditional forest management, can therefore be rejected

Antipsychotic dose escalation as a trigger for Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome (NMS): literature review and case series report

Background: “Neuroleptic malignant syndrome” (NMS) is a potentially fatal idiosyncratic reaction to any medication which affects the central dopaminergic system. Between 0.5% and 1% of patients exposed to antipsychotics develop the condition. Mortality rates may be as high as 55% and many risk factors have been reported. Although rapid escalation of antipsychotic dose is thought to be an important risk factor, to date it has not been the focus of a published case series or scientifically defined. &lt;p/&gt;Aims: To identify cases of NMS and review risk factors for its development with a particular focus on rapid dose escalation in the 30 days prior to onset. &lt;p/&gt;Methodology: A review of the literature on rapid dose escalation was undertaken and a pragmatic definition of “rapid dose escalation” was made. NMS cases were defined using DSM-IV criteria and systematically identified within a secondary care mental health service. A ratio of titration rate was calculated for each NMS patient and “rapid escalators” and “non rapid escalators” were compared. &lt;p/&gt;Results: 13 cases of NMS were identified. A progressive mean dose increase 15 days prior to the confirmed episode of NMS was observed (241.7mg/day during days 1-15 to 346.9mg/day during days 16-30) and the mean ratio of dose escalation for NMS patients was 1.4. Rapid dose escalation was seen in 5/13 cases and non rapid escalators had markedly higher daily cumulative antipsychotic dose compared to rapid escalators. &lt;p/&gt;Conclusions: Rapid dose escalation occurred in less than half of this case series (n=5, 38.5%), although there is currently no consensus on the precise definition of rapid dose escalation. Cumulative antipsychotic dose – alongside other known risk factors - may also be important in the development of NMS

Spontaneous R-Parity Violation, A4A_4 Flavor Symmetry and Tribimaximal Mixing

We explore the possibility of spontaneous R parity violation in the context of $A_4$ flavor symmetry. Our model contains $SU(3)_c \times SU(2)_L \times U(1)_Y$ singlet matter chiral superfields which are arranged as triplet of $A_4$ and as well as few additional Higgs chiral superfields which are singlet under MSSM gauge group and belong to triplet and singlet representation under the $A_4$ flavor symmetry. R parity is broken spontaneously by the vacuum expectation values of the different sneutrino fields and hence we have neutrino-neutralino as well as neutrino-MSSM gauge singlet higgsino mixings in our model, in addition to the standard model neutrino- gauge singlet neutrino, gaugino-higgsino and higgsino-higgsino mixings. Because all of these mixings we have an extended neutral fermion mass matrix. We explore the low energy neutrino mass matrix for our model and point out that with some specific constraints between the sneutrino vacuum expectation values as well as the MSSM gauge singlet Higgs vacuum expectation values, the low energy neutrino mass matrix will lead to a tribimaximal mixing matrix. We also analyze the potential minimization for our model and show that one can realize a higher vacuum expectation value of the $SU(3)_c \times SU(2)_L \times U(1)_Y$ singlet sneutrino fields even when the other sneutrino vacuum expectation values are extremely small or even zero.Comment: 18 page

LHC and lepton flavour violation phenomenology of a left-right extension of the MSSM

We study the phenomenology of a supersymmetric left-right model, assuming minimal supergravity boundary conditions. Both left-right and (B-L) symmetries are broken at an energy scale close to, but significantly below the GUT scale. Neutrino data is explained via a seesaw mechanism. We calculate the RGEs for superpotential and soft parameters complete at 2-loop order. At low energies lepton flavour violation (LFV) and small, but potentially measurable mass splittings in the charged scalar lepton sector appear, due to the RGE running. Different from the supersymmetric 'pure seesaw' models, both, LFV and slepton mass splittings, occur not only in the left- but also in the right slepton sector. Especially, ratios of LFV slepton decays, such as Br(${\tilde\tau}_R \to \mu \chi^0_1$)/Br(${\tilde\tau}_L \to \mu \chi^0_1$) are sensitive to the ratio of (B-L) and left-right symmetry breaking scales. Also the model predicts a polarization asymmetry of the outgoing positrons in the decay $\mu^+ \to e^+ \gamma$, A ~ [0,1], which differs from the pure seesaw 'prediction' A=1$. Observation of any of these signals allows to distinguish this model from any of the three standard, pure (mSugra) seesaw setups.Comment: 43 pages, 17 figure