Методи оцінки ризиків в інформаційній системі аналізу екологічного стану басейну малої ріки

В інформаційній системі аналізу стану басейну малої ріки запропоновано методи оцінки ризиків на основі імовірнісних та статистичних оцінок, формалізації моделі гри з природою, прогнозування процесів підтоплення земель з використанням ланцюгів Маркова, розглянуто багато критеріальні моделі ризиків.In informational and analytical system of the small rivers’ ecological condition estimation the methods of risks modelling on the basis of likelihood and statistical estimations, formalization of models of game with nature, risk modelling and forecasting processes flooded lands using Markov chains are offered, multicriteria models of risks are considered

Accretion-ejection instability and QPO in black hole binaries. I. Observations

This is the first of two papers in which we address the physics of the low-frequency Quasi-Periodic Oscillation (QPO) of X-ray binaries, in particular those hosting a black hole. We discuss and repeat the recent analysis and spectral modelling of the micro-quasar GRO J1655 by Sobczak et al (2000, hereafter SMR), and compare it with GRS 1915; this leads us to confirm and analyze in more detail the different behavior noted by SMR, between GRO J1655 and other sources, when comparing the correlation between the QPO frequency and the disk inner radius. In a companion paper (Varniere et al., 2002, hereafter Paper II) we will show that these opposite behaviors can be explained in the context of the Accretion-Ejection Instability recently presented by Tagger and Pellat (1999). We thus propose that the difference between GRO J1655 and other sources comes from the fact that in the former, observed in a very high state, the disk inner radius always stays close to the Last Stable Orbit. In the course of this analysis, we also indicate interesting differences between the source properties, when the spectral fits give an anomalously low inner disk radius. This might indicate the presence of a spiral shock or a hot point in the disk.Comment: accepted by A&

Characterizing a new class of variability in GRS 1915+105 with simultaneous INTEGRAL/RXTE observations

We report on the analysis of 100 ks INTEGRAL observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105. We focus on INTEGRAL Revolution number 48 when the source was found to exhibit a new type of variability as preliminarily reported in Hannikainen et al. (2003). The variability pattern, which we name $\xi$, is characterized by a pulsing behaviour, consisting of a main pulse and a shorter, softer, and smaller amplitude precursor pulse, on a timescale of 5 minutes in the JEM-X 3-35 keV lightcurve. We also present simultaneous RXTE data. From a study of the individual RXTE/PCA pulse profiles we find that the rising phase is shorter and harder than the declining phase, which is opposite to what has been observed in other otherwise similar variability classes in this source. The position in the colour-colour diagram throughout the revolution corresponds to State A (Belloni et al. 2000) but not to any previously known variability class. We separated the INTEGRAL data into two subsets covering the maxima and minima of the pulses and fitted the resulting two broadband spectra with a hybrid thermal--non-thermal Comptonization model. The fits show the source to be in a soft state characterized by a strong disc component below ~6 keV and Comptonization by both thermal and non-thermal electrons at higher energies.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 11 pages, 10 figures, 4 in colour. Original figures can be found at http://www.astro.helsinki.fi/~diana/grs1915_rev48. Author affiliations correcte

Regularizing Portfolio Optimization

The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting which can be avoided using known regularization methods. We show how regularized portfolio optimization with the expected shortfall as a risk measure is related to support vector regression. The budget constraint dictates a modification. We present the resulting optimization problem and discuss the solution. The L2 norm of the weight vector is used as a regularizer, which corresponds to a diversification "pressure". This means that diversification, besides counteracting downward fluctuations in some assets by upward fluctuations in others, is also crucial because it improves the stability of the solution. The approach we provide here allows for the simultaneous treatment of optimization and diversification in one framework that enables the investor to trade-off between the two, depending on the size of the available data set

Dynamics of trimming the content of face representations for categorization in the brain

To understand visual cognition, it is imperative to determine when, how and with what information the human brain categorizes the visual input. Visual categorization consistently involves at least an early and a late stage: the occipito-temporal N170 event related potential related to stimulus encoding and the parietal P300 involved in perceptual decisions. Here we sought to understand how the brain globally transforms its representations of face categories from their early encoding to the later decision stage over the 400 ms time window encompassing the N170 and P300 brain events. We applied classification image techniques to the behavioral and electroencephalographic data of three observers who categorized seven facial expressions of emotion and report two main findings: (1) Over the 400 ms time course, processing of facial features initially spreads bilaterally across the left and right occipito-temporal regions to dynamically converge onto the centro-parietal region; (2) Concurrently, information processing gradually shifts from encoding common face features across all spatial scales (e.g. the eyes) to representing only the finer scales of the diagnostic features that are richer in useful information for behavior (e.g. the wide opened eyes in 'fear'; the detailed mouth in 'happy'). Our findings suggest that the brain refines its diagnostic representations of visual categories over the first 400 ms of processing by trimming a thorough encoding of features over the N170, to leave only the detailed information important for perceptual decisions over the P300

Structure of the TPR Domain of AIP: Lack of Client Protein Interaction with the C-Terminal alpha-7 Helix of the TPR Domain of AIP Is Sufficient for Pituitary Adenoma Predisposition

PMCID: PMC3534021This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Can We Really Prevent Suicide?

Every year, suicide is among the top 20 leading causes of death globally for all ages. Unfortunately, suicide is difficult to prevent, in large part because the prevalence of risk factors is high among the general population. In this review, clinical and psychological risk factors are examined and methods for suicide prevention are discussed. Prevention strategies found to be effective in suicide prevention include means restriction, responsible media coverage, and general public education, as well identification methods such as screening, gatekeeper training, and primary care physician education. Although the treatment for preventing suicide is difficult, follow-up that includes pharmacotherapy, psychotherapy, or both may be useful. However, prevention methods cannot be restricted to the individual. Community, social, and policy interventions will also be essentia

Rapid motion adaptation reveals the temporal dynamics of spatiotemporal correlation between ON and OFF pathways

At the early stages of visual processing, information is processed by two major thalamic pathways encoding brightness increments (ON) and decrements (OFF). Accumulating evidence suggests that these pathways interact and merge as early as in primary visual cortex. Using regular and reverse-phi motion in a rapid adaptation paradigm, we investigated the temporal dynamics of within and across pathway mechanisms for motion processing. When the adaptation duration was short (188 ms), reverse-phi and regular motion led to similar adaptation effects, suggesting that the information from the two pathways are combined efficiently at early-stages of motion processing. However, as the adaption duration was increased to 752 ms, reverse-phi and regular motion showed distinct adaptation effects depending on the test pattern used, either engaging spatiotemporal correlation between the same or opposite contrast polarities. Overall, these findings indicate that spatiotemporal correlation within and across ON-OFF pathways for motion processing can be selectively adapted, and support those models that integrate within and across pathway mechanisms for motion processing

The incidence of unpleasant dreams after sub-anaesthetic ketamine

Ketamine is an N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)receptor antagonist with psychotogenic effects and for whichthere are diverse reports of whether pleasant or unpleasantdreams result during anaesthesia, post-operatively or aftersub-anaesthetic use. The aim was to assess in healthy volunteers the incidence ofunpleasant dreams over the three nights after receiving asub-anaesthetic dose of ketamine, in comparison to placebo,and with retrospective home nightmare frequency as acovariate.Thirty healthy volunteers completed questionnairesabout retrospective home dream recall and were then giveneither ketamine or placebo. Ketamine resulted in significantly more meandream unpleasantness relative to placebo and caused athreefold increase in the odds ratio for the incidence of anunpleasant dream. The number of dreams reported over thethree nights did not differ between the groups. Theincidence of unpleasant dreams after ketamine use waspredicted by retrospectively assessed nightmare frequencyat home.Ketamine causes unpleasant dreams over thethree post-administration nights. This may be evidence of aresidual psychotogenic effect that is not found on standardself-report symptomatology measures or a result of disturbedsleep electrophysiology. The results have theoretical implications for the relationship between nightmares and schizotypy

Evidence for the Rare Decay B -> K*ll and Measurement of the B -> Kll Branching Fraction

We present evidence for the flavor-changing neutral current decay $B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-$ and a measurement of the branching fraction for the related process $B\to K\ell^+\ell^-$, where $\ell^+\ell^-$ is either an $e^+e^-$ or $\mu^+\mu^-$ pair. These decays are highly suppressed in the Standard Model, and they are sensitive to contributions from new particles in the intermediate state. The data sample comprises $123\times 10^6$ $\Upsilon(4S)\to B\bar{B}$ decays collected with the Babar detector at the PEP-II $e^+e^-$ storage ring. Averaging over $K^{(*)}$ isospin and lepton flavor, we obtain the branching fractions ${\mathcal B}(B\to K\ell^+\ell^-)=(0.65^{+0.14}_{-0.13}\pm 0.04)\times 10^{-6}$ and ${\mathcal B}(B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-)=(0.88^{+0.33}_{-0.29}\pm 0.10)\times 10^{-6}$, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. The significance of the $B\to K\ell^+\ell^-$ signal is over $8\sigma$, while for $B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-$ it is $3.3\sigma$.Comment: 7 pages, 2 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let